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Climate Economy and the Future of Humanity
Disasters caused by rising global temperatures have caused heavy losses to more and more countries and seriously threatened the future of mankind. Let’s take a look at what Bill Gates tells us about how to achieve a zero-carbon plan. There is only one earth, so the zero-carbon plan concerns each of us.
Edited at 2024-02-14 12:45:21
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Climate Economy and the Future of Humanity
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- Outline
"Climate Economy and the Future of Humanity"
Preface
two numbers
51 billion
Approximate tons of greenhouse gases (CO2 equivalent) emitted into the atmosphere globally each year
37 billion tons (pure carbon dioxide emissions, not including emissions of other greenhouse gases)
10 billion tons (just carbon emissions)
Due to the sharp slowdown in economic activities in 2020, the decline will be around 5%. In real terms, it will be approximately 48 billion or 49 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.
One million people died and tens of millions lost their jobs, showing that the goal of zero emissions cannot be achieved simply by flying less and driving less.
0
What we need to achieve
The climate is like a bathtub that is slowly being filled with water. Even if we adjust the water to a trickle, the bathtub will be filled sooner or later. When the bathtub is full, the water will naturally flow to the ground.
About 1 billion people worldwide lack access to reliable electricity supply
Half of them live in sub-Saharan Africa
Approximately 860 million people around the world do not have access to electricity
The logic of developing a low-carbon economy
Core philosophy of the Gates Foundation: Everyone should have the opportunity to live a healthy and productive life
The relationship between a country’s per capita income and its national energy consumption
proportional to
How to give people in poor countries access to reliable, affordable energy
When it comes to climate change, the poor are the biggest losers. Most of them are farmers struggling on the poverty line and cannot withstand more droughts and floods.
The world needs more energy to put the poor on the road to prosperity, but we cannot provide this energy at the expense of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.
It should not only provide cheap and reliable energy to poor groups, but also ensure that it is clean energy (mainly wind energy and solar energy)
But the wind doesn’t blow all the time, the sun doesn’t always shine, we don’t have affordable batteries that can store large amounts of energy for long periods of time (like enough to power a city), and the greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation are only Accounting for 27% of total global emissions, even with major breakthroughs in battery technology we still need to cut the other 73%
Gates' path to understanding dual carbon
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Earth's Changing Climate
(Richard Wolfson, video lecture launched on the Great Courses platform)
Weather for Dummies
The key to solving the climate problem
Make clean energy as cheap and reliable as fossil fuels
Cheap enough that every country can prioritize clean energy over fossil fuels
We cannot tell thousands of Indians that they should die from heat waves because installing air conditioners is not good for the environment.
Developing cheap, clean energy
energy industry
Traditional energy investment
It's unrealistic to change the world's energy system by selling off fossil fuel company stocks.
The energy industry has an annual market size of US$5 trillion
This industry is the foundation of the modern economy
New energy investment
Things would be much easier to handle if governments of various countries also committed to increasing investment in energy research.
Even in the United States, investment in energy research is far lower than in other important areas
In 2015, private capital dried up and many venture capital firms that had previously invested in green technologies chose to exit.
The returns in this field are too low. Biotechnology and information technology fields tend to have quick return on investment and little government supervision.
Breakthroughs in new energy could take decades and carry high risks
Rich people eliminate carbon footprint
Start buying sustainable aviation fuel in 2020
Funding a company to install clean energy upgrades for affordable housing
Probably the most invested person in the world in direct air capture technology
Take action (five parts)
①Why is it 0?
Chapter 1
Explain why we need to achieve our zero emissions target
Known and unknown impacts of global climate change around the world
②Bad news
chapter 2
Achieving zero emissions is an incredibly difficult task
Discuss current challenges that need to be addressed
③ How to have insightful dialogue on climate change
Chapter 3
Analyzing statistics
Helping you avoid climate change issues that go astray
④Good news
Chapter 4~9
We can achieve zero emissions
Areas where current technology can be effective, and areas where technological breakthroughs are needed
⑤Measures we can take now
We have the ambition to overcome challenges, a growing global movement cared about and led by young people
More and more national and regional leaders around the world are committed to contributing
Chapter 10, 11
Policies that the government can adopt
Chapter 12
Steps everyone can take to contribute to global zero emissions
Chapter 1 Why "0"?
The goal of achieving "zero" is not really zero emissions, but net zero emissions, which is a huge economic opportunity
greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases absorb and trap heat, causing the average temperature of the earth's surface to rise. The more greenhouse gases, the greater the increase in the earth's surface temperature.
Once greenhouse gases enter the atmosphere, they will remain for a long time. 20% of the carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere today will still remain in 10,000 years.
In a car under the sun, the temperature inside the car is much higher than the temperature outside the car
Greenhouse effect and molecular vibration
Molecules made up of two identical atoms (such as nitrogen or oxygen molecules) allow radiation to pass directly through them
Only molecules made up of different atoms, like the way carbon dioxide and methane are made, have the structure to absorb radiation and start to heat up under its influence.
Carbon emissions before and after the industrial era
Before the mid-18th century, the Earth's carbon cycle was probably in a state of roughly equilibrium, with plants and other objects absorbing roughly the same amount of carbon dioxide as was emitted into the atmosphere globally.
When we dug these fuels out of the ground and burned them starting in the mid-1700s, we emitted extra carbon and added to the total amount of carbon in the atmosphere.
Achieving "zero carbon" by completely abandoning fossil fuels is not realistic
No matter how much emissions are achieved, it will not stop the temperature from rising; it will only delay, not prevent, the onset of climate catastrophe.
Not only do we have to turn off the water flowing into the bathtub, but we also have to open the drain valve to let the water flow out
Greenhouse gases
nitrous oxide
nitrous oxide
Methane
Main components of natural gas
The warming effect in the atmosphere is 120 times that of carbon dioxide
Does not remain in the atmosphere for long periods of time like carbon dioxide
carbon dioxide
carbon dioxide equivalent
CO2e
For simplicity, the best single unit of measurement that most people will use for calculating greenhouse gas emissions
global average temperature
Compared with pre-industrial times, the global average temperature has increased by at least 1 degree Celsius due to human actions
If efforts are not made to reduce emissions, the global average temperature may rise by 1.5 to 3 degrees Celsius by the middle of the 21st century, and by 4 to 8 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century.
The relationship between severe meteorological disasters and climate change
For some specific events, we can’t entirely blame climate change
When a heat wave hits, we can't say with complete certainty whether it's caused by climate change, but we can say how much climate change increases its probability
Meteorological disasters can set infrastructure back ten or twenty years, and these funds could have been used to promote other areas of economic development.
A global warming of 2 degrees Celsius will reduce the geographical distribution range of vertebrates by 8%, plants by 16%, and insects by 18%.
Extreme climate disasters may reduce food production and increase food prices
Insect-borne diseases, heat stroke
Weather shocks may cause wars over resources to break out for refugees in uninhabitable areas, resulting in a large number of refugees seeking asylum.
Things to do
Adapt to climate change
Seek to minimize the impacts of existing and anticipated climate change
Fund crop research projects to develop new varieties that are resistant to drought and floods
mitigate climate change
Countries that have built great "zero-carbon" companies and great "zero-carbon" industries will undoubtedly lead the global economy in the coming decades.
As long as a breakthrough technology proves that it can be brought to the world at an affordable price, it will find many in-demand customers in emerging economies.
Chapter 2 The Hard Road
Without innovation, humanity cannot achieve the goal of zero emissions.
Fossil fuels are like water
Fish: "What on earth is water?"
Toothbrushes, plastics, food, fertilizers, steel, beef, cotton, polyester fiber...
Fossil fuels are ubiquitous for a good reason—they’re cheap
Petroleum is cheaper than soft drinks
Very large reserves and easy to transport
As per capita energy use increases, so does per capita greenhouse gas emissions, and everyone will use more energy
It is immoral and impractical to try to block the upward mobility of those at the bottom of the economic ladder. We cannot ask poor people to remain poor just because rich countries already emit too many greenhouse gases.
The energy transition is slow
It took half a century for oil to account for 10% of the world's energy supply, and another 30 years to reach 25%.
It took 70 years for natural gas to increase from 1% to 20%
It took a total of 27 years for nuclear fission to reach 10% from scratch
We switch from one energy source to another because new energy sources are cheaper and therefore have greater power to switch.
We stopped burning huge amounts of firewood and started burning large amounts of coal because a pound of coal provides us with far more light and heat than a pound of firewood.
We will naturally shift to more renewable energy over time, but if left to its own devices we will not achieve the desired speed of transition
Coal-fired power plants are not the same as computer chip factories
1908
The first Ford Model T drove about 21 miles per gallon
writing this book
58 miles per gallon
In more than a century, the economy of fuel vehicles has improved less than three times.
When crystalline silicon solar cells were introduced in the 1970s, their photoelectric conversion efficiency was about 15%. Today that number is about 25%.
The energy industry is huge and one of the largest businesses in the world, with an annual market size of up to US$5 trillion.
It is very difficult to transform the inherent energy system on its own. It is necessary to build an energy system to accelerate the conversion of new and old kinetic energy.
Pulling together all the documented federal and state policies and adding up the emissions reductions they would contribute by 2030, the figure is 300 million tons, or about 5% of projected U.S. emissions in 2030.
Relying on existing policies alone will not be enough to help us achieve our goal of zero emissions.
There is not as much consensus on climate issues as you might think
Chapter 3 Five key questions in the climate conversation
We need new technologies, new companies and new products to lower the green premium
1. What proportion of the 51 billion tons are we talking about?
Aviation sector example
Can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 17 million tons a year
Divide this number by 51 billion tons and convert it into a percentage. This amount of emission reduction accounts for approximately 0.03% of global annual emissions.
gigaton
1 gigaton = 1 billion tons
2. What are your plans for cement?
Passenger cars account for less than 50% of total transportation volume, and total transportation emissions account for only 16% of total global greenhouse gas emissions.
Greenhouse gas emissions from steel and cement production account for about 10% of total global emissions.
Let you know you have more to consider than just electricity and cars
Proportion of greenhouse gas emissions from 5 types of human activities
①Production and manufacturing (cement, steel, plastics) - 31%
②Electricity production and storage (electricity) - 27%
③Planting and breeding (plants, animals) - 19%
④Transportation (airplanes, trucks, cargo ships) - 16%
⑤Heating and cooling (heating system, cooling system, refrigeration system) - 7%
The goal of achieving zero emissions means that all of these categories go to "0"
3. How much electrical energy are we talking about?
A new power plant will generate 500 megawatts of electricity
1 gigawatt (GW) = 1 billion watts, 1 megawatt (MW) = 1 million watts, 1 watt = 1 joule per second
1 watt is very small, a small incandescent lamp has a power of 40 watts
The power of the hair dryer is 1500 watts
A power plant may produce hundreds of millions of watts
China's Three Gorges Dam could produce 22 billion watts
The definition of 1 watt already includes "per second", so there is no such thing as watts per second or watts per hour.
Measuring the flow of water from a kitchen faucet, perhaps calculating how many cups of water are dispensed per second
average unit of electrical energy required
worldwide
5000GW
USA
1000GW
medium sized city
1GW
small town
1MW
average american house
1KW
rich country
Hundreds of gigawatts
The average quarterly electricity consumption in Tokyo, Japan is 23 GW, and even exceeds 50 GW during peak summer hours.
Energy is volatile
If you want to supply power to a medium-sized city that needs 1 GW, you need to build a 1 GW power station, which cannot guarantee normal supply to the city.
Nuclear power plants can operate continuously 24 hours a day, shutting down only for maintenance and refueling
The wind doesn't blow all the time, and the sun doesn't always shine.
Wind and solar plants may have effective capacity of only 30% or even less
4. How much space is needed?
Some power supplies take up more space than others
Limited land and water resources globally
The power that can be generated per square meter of land (or water)
Fossil fuels
500~10000 watt/square meter
nuclear energy
500~1000 watt/square meter
solar energy
5~20 watts/square meter
Can reach 100 watts/square meter (unachievable so far)
water energy
5~50 watts/square meter
wind energy
1~2 watts/square meter
Wood and other biomass
Less than 1 watt/m2
5. How much does this cost?
The reason the world emits so much greenhouse gas is that existing energy technologies are essentially the cheapest (ignoring the damage they cause)
“Zero carbon” solutions appear to be more costly
The price of fossil fuels does not reflect the environmental damage they cause, making them appear more economical than "zero carbon" solutions
Green Premiums
Understanding the “green premium”
The size of the green premium depends on what you're replacing, and what you're replacing it with
The average selling price of domestic jet fuel in the United States is $2.22 per gallon
Advanced biofuels for aircraft sell for $5.35 per gallon on average
The green premium for “zero carbon” fuel is the difference between these two prices, which is $3.13 per gallon (a premium of more than 140%)
Green premium is negative
Switching to green energy could be cheaper than sticking with fossil fuels
An electric heat pump system in Auckland can help you save 14%
The green premium plays a particularly important role in policy-making
In areas where the green premium is too high, the existence of additional green costs will hinder our "decarbonization" actions, so new technologies, new companies and new products are needed to reduce the green premium.
Countries that are good at R&D can create new products—new products that are affordable—and then export them to countries and regions that cannot afford the current premiums.
Is the green premium already low enough for middle-income countries to pay?
The lag in green equipment deployment
The frequency of resident replacement is not very high
direct air capture technology
How much would it cost to suck carbon directly out of the atmosphere?
It costs at least $200 per ton of carbon to remove, assuming innovative technologies can bring it down to $100
51 billion tons/year*100 US dollars/ton=5.1 trillion US dollars/year
Accounting for about 6% of the total economy
Air carbon capture technology is an extremely inefficient method
Lack of practical ways to raise up to $5.1 trillion
More than 50,000 direct air capture plants need to be built globally
Does not apply to methane or other greenhouse gases, only carbon dioxide
Solving the gas emission problem at the source will be much cheaper
Carbon consumption cost
The cost to the U.S. economy of removing carbon is $2,600 to $3,300 per ton of carbon
In the EU, the cost is more than $4,000
Its cost is 25 to 40 times the $100 per ton we hope to achieve
Chapter 4 Electricity Production and Storage
Ten innovative measures for “zero-carbon” electricity
860 million people around the world do not have access to reliable electricity, of which 600 million are in sub-Saharan Africa.
Hydroelectric power has many advantages, such as being relatively cheap, but it also has some major drawbacks
Fossil fuel power generation accounts for two-thirds of global power generation, and achieving clean electricity is not easy.
Solar and wind power generation account for about 7%
The green premium is the additional cost of obtaining electricity from non-emitting sources
Non-emission sources: wind, solar, nuclear, coal and gas-fired power plants equipped with carbon capture facilities
The green premium for zero-carbon electricity is around 15% in the US and 20% in Europe
The more widely a technology is used, the cheaper it is, so why should there be extra costs for developing green electricity?
Electricity prices are so low largely because fossil fuels are cheap and their prices do not take into account the true costs of climate change, making it difficult for clean energy to compete.
We have spent decades building a system that extracts fossil fuels from the ground and uses them to produce and distribute energy, all at very low cost.
Some regions in the world do not have suitable renewable energy at all, and the deployment of clean energy across regions is costly and time-consuming. Transmission and distribution costs account for more than one-third of the final cost of electricity.
Both sunlight and wind are intermittent resources, and it is difficult for them to continuously generate electricity 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Our demand for electricity is non-intermittent, and we hope to have electricity available at all times. This requires advanced and low-cost energy storage technology.
Energy storage cost
battery cost
battery life
Nighttime intermittency is not the biggest problem we have to deal with, the seasonal change between summer and winter is a more serious obstacle
Storing electricity at scale is extremely difficult and expensive, but it will be a problem that must be faced if we rely on intermittent resources to provide a significant proportion of our clean electricity in the coming years.
The difference between power generation and installed capacity
Producing “zero carbon” electricity
Nuclear fission
nuclear fusion
offshore wind power
Geothermal
power storage
Battery
pumped hydro
thermal energy storage
cheap hydrogen
Other innovations
carbon capture
Save electricity
"Load Shifting" or "Demand Shifting"
Chapter 5 Production and Manufacturing
During the production and manufacturing of all these materials, large amounts of greenhouse gases are produced.
The production of carbon dioxide is huge. For every ton of steel produced, approximately 1.8 tons of carbon dioxide are produced
For every ton of cement produced, approximately one ton of carbon dioxide is produced.
These different types of plastics all have one thing in common - they contain carbon
Where do greenhouse gas emissions from product manufacturing come from?
(1) When fossil fuels are used to provide the power required for the operation of the factory
(2) When fossil fuels are used to provide heat energy for different manufacturing processes, such as the melting of iron ore in steel production
(3) When these materials are actually manufactured, such as the production of cement, carbon dioxide will inevitably be produced
green premium
The green premium consumers are willing to bear
Innovative production processes require the development of "zero-carbon" manufacturing methods
A rough path to zero emissions in manufacturing
Chapter 6 Planting and Breeding
Raising food animals is one of the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions
As far as agriculture is concerned, the main greenhouse gas emissions are not carbon dioxide, but methane and nitrous oxide
Meat and dairy production requires us to grow more food
Farting and burping of dairy cows and beef cattle
Artificial meat
If I had to sum up the other 30% of emissions in one phrase, it would be “deforestation.”
How much carbon dioxide can a tree absorb during its lifetime?
Is there any use in planting trees?
Chapter 7 Transportation
Gasoline has huge energy and low price
The transport sector accounts for only 16% of global emissions, behind production and manufacturing, electricity, and planting and breeding.
Today, most of the growth in transportation-related carbon emissions comes from developing countries.
Percentage of greenhouse gas emissions from transportation vehicles such as cars, trucks, planes and ships
If electricity still comes from coal-fired power plants, then using it to charge an electric car is nothing more than replacing one fossil fuel with another.
alternative fuels
The heavier the car body, the shorter the driving range, and the more difficult it is to use electricity as a power source. Barring some unlikely breakthrough, batteries will never be light enough and powerful enough to power aircraft and ships over long distances.
Chapter 8 Cooling and Heating
Cool, pleasant temperatures help malaria patients recover
In rich countries such as the United States, more than 90% of homes are air-conditioned, while in the world's hottest countries this proportion is less than 10%
Proportion of households with air conditioners by country
Global electricity demand for cooling will triple by 2050
Greenhouse gases produced by electricity use in buildings (air conditioning, lighting equipment, computers, etc.) account for approximately 14% of total global emissions.
If you want to "decarbonize" air conditioners, you must "decarbonize" the power grid.
We will be trapped in a vicious cycle where the cooler our homes and offices are, the hotter the climate will be
Fluorinated gases are an important contributor to climate change. Over the course of a century, their greenhouse effect is thousands of times greater than the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide.
In the United States, fluorinated gases account for about 3% of total greenhouse gas emissions.
This means that simply “decarbonizing” the grid will not achieve carbon-free hot water and heating. We need to get heat from sources other than oil and gas
The “zero carbon” path to heating
heat pump
Green premium and costs of heat pumps
Why heat pumps save money but so few people install them
A green premium for replacing current heating fuels with 'zero carbon' alternatives
green commercial building
Chapter 9 Adapting to a Warming World
The best way we can help poor people adapt to climate change is to ensure they are healthy enough to survive and thrive in a changing climate
CGIAR: Helping developing countries solve food problems
Adaptation to climate change is divided into three stages
Four key points for adapting to climate change
First, cities need to change their development methods.
Second, we should strengthen the natural defense system.
Third, global demand for drinking water will exceed supply.
Fourth, we need to bring in new funding to fund climate change adaptation projects.
Chapter 10 The role of government
Smart policies can help solve problems like air pollution
Smart energy policies can promote new, zero-emission inventions
Promote electrification
Maintain energy security
Economic recovery flows to green areas
Seven things the government should do
1. Fill the investment gap
Microwave ovens continue to drop in price
Electricity is different from microwave ovens
Private investors take over the government’s investment baton
2. Create a level playing field
externality
3. Break down non-market barriers
4. Keep up with the times
5. Planning for a “just transition”
6. Face difficulties head on
7. Three-pronged approach of technology, policy and market
Work together
Chapter 11 Zero Emission Plan
short choice or long choice
Innovation
In energy, software, and almost every other field, it is a misconception to define innovation solely in a strictly technical sense
A list of zero-carbon technologies that are “cheap enough to be affordable to middle-income countries”
Supply and demand coordination
What governments need to do to support “zero carbon technologies”
1. Increase R&D investment related to clean energy and climate by 4 times in the next 10 years.
2. Bet heavily on high-risk, high-return R&D projects.
3. Integrate R&D with our greatest needs.
4. Partner with industry from the beginning.
Increase demand for innovation
Verification phase
After a method has been tested in the laboratory, it needs to be validated on the market.
Possible "verification methods"
Use purchasing power
Incentives to help reduce costs and risks
Build the infrastructure that helps bring new technologies to market
Changing the rules to create conditions for competition with new technologies
Practical methods
First, put a price on carbon
Putting a price on carbon emissions is one of the most important things we can do to eliminate the green premium
In the short term, the value of a carbon price is to signal to the market that products that emit greenhouse gases come at an additional cost by raising the cost of fossil fuels.
As we get closer to net-zero emissions, carbon prices could be set based on the cost of direct air capture
Second, adopt clean electricity standards
Performance system for the Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard
Clean Power Standard
Third, adopt clean fuel standards
Fourth, adopt cleaning product standards
Fifth, eliminate old things
scale stage
Who moves first?
Any government needs to do three things
First, set zero emissions as a goal: rich countries should achieve zero emissions before 2050, and middle-income countries should achieve zero emissions as soon as possible after 2050.
Second, develop specific plans to achieve these goals. Achieving zero emissions targets by 2050 will require policy and market structures to be defined by 2030
Third, any country that has the ability to fund energy R&D projects must ensure that the purpose of the project is to produce affordable clean energy, that is, to do everything possible to reduce the green premium and enable middle-income countries to achieve the goal of zero emissions.
Chapter 12 The Responsibility of Each of Us
Make phone calls, write letters, attend town hall meetings
Think nationally but also locally
run for office
First, sign up to green pricing plans with electric utilities.
Second, reduce carbon emissions at home. root
Third, buy an electric car
Fourth, try a plant-based artificial meat burger
First, establish an internal carbon tax
Second, prioritize the development of innovative low-carbon solutions.
Third, be an early adopter.
Fourth, participate in the policy-making process
Fifth, establish links with government-funded research projects
Sixth, help early innovators cross the “Valley of Death”