MindMap Gallery Modern consulting methods and practices_20230408
Consultant Engineering Examination_Modern Consulting Methods and Practices The mind map of the modern consulting methods and practices before the syllabus was revised. I have already passed the test.
Edited at 2024-01-30 13:36:28This Valentine's Day brand marketing handbook provides businesses with five practical models, covering everything from creating offline experiences to driving online engagement. Whether you're a shopping mall, restaurant, or online brand, you'll find a suitable strategy: each model includes clear objectives and industry-specific guidelines, helping brands transform traffic into real sales and lasting emotional connections during this romantic season.
This Valentine's Day map illustrates love through 30 romantic possibilities, from the vintage charm of "handwritten love letters" to the urban landscape of "rooftop sunsets," from the tactile experience of a "pottery workshop" to the leisurely moments of "wine tasting at a vineyard"—offering a unique sense of occasion for every couple. Whether it's cozy, experiential, or luxurious, love always finds the most fitting expression. May you all find the perfect atmosphere for your love story.
The ice hockey schedule for the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics, featuring preliminary rounds, quarterfinals, and medal matches for both men's and women's tournaments from February 5–22. All game times are listed in Eastern Standard Time (EST).
This Valentine's Day brand marketing handbook provides businesses with five practical models, covering everything from creating offline experiences to driving online engagement. Whether you're a shopping mall, restaurant, or online brand, you'll find a suitable strategy: each model includes clear objectives and industry-specific guidelines, helping brands transform traffic into real sales and lasting emotional connections during this romantic season.
This Valentine's Day map illustrates love through 30 romantic possibilities, from the vintage charm of "handwritten love letters" to the urban landscape of "rooftop sunsets," from the tactile experience of a "pottery workshop" to the leisurely moments of "wine tasting at a vineyard"—offering a unique sense of occasion for every couple. Whether it's cozy, experiential, or luxurious, love always finds the most fitting expression. May you all find the perfect atmosphere for your love story.
The ice hockey schedule for the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics, featuring preliminary rounds, quarterfinals, and medal matches for both men's and women's tournaments from February 5–22. All game times are listed in Eastern Standard Time (EST).
Consulting method analysis
Modern engineering consulting methods
Overview
Scope: policy consulting, planning consulting, project consulting, evaluation consulting, whole process consulting
Basic characteristics: ① Qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, focusing on quantitative analysis; ② Dynamic analysis and static analysis, focusing on dynamic analysis; ③ Statistical analysis and predictive analysis, focusing on predictive analysis
Logical Framework Approach (LFA)
from bottom to top (Purpose explains the content of goals at each level and the causal relationship between them)
Macroscopic goals: usually refer to the ultimate goal, that is, macroscopic plans, plans, policies and guidelines, etc.
Specific goals: refers to the motivation for implementing the project, that is, the direct effects, benefits and effects that the project is to achieve.
Output: refers to the specific results of the project, that is, the output of the facilities to be built in the project.
Investment: refers to the project implementation process and content, mainly including the amount of resource input and time, etc.
from left to right (Measuring efficiency between project resources and outcomes through primary verification objectives and verification methods)
Text descriptions of goals at each level, quantitative indicators, verification methods of indicators, and necessary assumptions and external conditions to achieve the goals.
Verification indicators should have: "One guest room is aligned and complete" ① clear quantitative indicators; ② highlight key indicators for the main purpose of the project; ③ clear relationship between verification indicators and corresponding goals; ④ one-to-one correspondence between verification indicators and hierarchical goals; ⑤ The indicators must be complete, sufficient, and accurately defined; ⑥ Verification indicators must be objective and specific; ⑦ Indirect verification indicators can be used when it is difficult to find direct verification indicators; ⑧ Verification indicators should be accurate.
Output results
Generally, it is necessary to provide measurable direct results, pointing out the actual projects completed by the project, or improving institutional systems, policies and regulations, etc.
Compilation steps
① Determine the specific goals of the project; ② Determine the output results to be achieved to achieve the specific goals of the project; ③ Determine the activities required to achieve each output result; ④ Determine the macro goals of the project; ⑤ Use if-then logical relationships Test the vertical logical relationship from the bottom up; ⑥ Determine the important assumptions and external conditions required to achieve each level of goals; ⑦ Determine the direct goals, output results and verifiable indicators of macro goals of the project in turn; ⑧ Determine the indicators Objective verification method; ⑨ Determine the budget cost and verification indicators and methods of each input activity; ⑩ Conduct comparative inspection and verification of the design of the entire logical framework
analytic hierarchy process
Purpose: To sort out factors, actions, plans, project indicators, etc. that cannot be quantified.
Advantages: Systematic analysis method, concise and practical decision-making method, less quantitative data required
Disadvantages: cannot provide new solutions for decision makers; the workload is heavy when there are too many indicators and the weights are difficult to determine; the precise method of finding eigenvalues and eigenvectors is complicated
The basic steps
hierarchical model
Goal level, criterion level, plan level
Construct a comparison discriminant matrix
Pairwise comparison scale
n*n matrix, diagonally downward diagonally reciprocal to each other
Hierarchical sorting and consistency test under single criterion
Calculation of judgment matrix eigenvectors: ① Sum method: column normalization → row sum → column normalization; ② Root method: column normalization → row root → column normalization
Judgment Matrix Consistency Test
Overall hierarchical ordering and consistency test
Overall ordering of levels
Overall sorting consistency check
SWOT analysis
Model
SO strategy: growth strategy (increase investment, expand production, increase market share)
WO strategy: turnaround strategy
ST Strategy: Diversification Strategy
WT strategy: defensive strategy
The basic steps
①Analyze environmental factors; ②Construct a SWOT matrix; ③Develop an action plan (development strategy based on SWOT analysis)
PEST analysis
Application areas
Corporate strategic planning, market planning, corporate business development, industry research and development planning, project feasibility analysis
Model
Ppolitical environment analysis
It refers to the political system, administrative system, laws and regulations, etc. of a country or region. Specific indicators include political system, economic system, fiscal policy, tax policy, industrial policy, investment policy, government subsidy level, public participation in politics, etc.
E economic environment analysis
The macroeconomic environment mainly refers to a country's population and its growth trend, national income, gross national product and their changes, as well as the level and speed of national economic development reflected by these indicators.
The microeconomic environment mainly refers to factors such as the income level, consumption preferences, savings, and employment level of consumers in the area where the enterprise is located or the area it serves. These factors directly determine the current and future market size of the company.
SSocial and natural environment analysis
The social environment includes the education and cultural level of residents of a country or region, religious beliefs, customs, aesthetic views, values, etc.
natural environment
T technology environment analysis
The technological environment has a direct and significant impact on the survival and development of enterprises. Continuous technological progress improves production efficiency, reduces production costs, and greatly affects the pattern of market competition.
limitation
The PEST analysis method only considers macro-environmental factors, so it has limitations and needs to be used in conjunction with other comprehensive analysis methods such as the SWOT method.
Modern engineering consulting information data and knowledge management
information data
Information type
By attributes, by different sources, by different media and forms, by original information and processing, by different purposes, by dynamic information and static information, by explicit information and invisible information
Information Sources
Internet and publications, borrowing and purchasing, own information
Engineering consulting information collection methods (census and sampling)
Documentary investigation method (the simplest, most general and commonly used method), field investigation method (flexible in application, sufficient information, but time-consuming, expensive and not objective enough), Questionnaire survey method (wide range, simple and easy to implement, low cost, widely used), experimental survey method (complex, high cost, limited application scope, high credibility).
Network information search and extraction methods
Keyword indexing, narrowing the scope (search by type, limited by logical conditions)
information management information
Information classification and cataloging
Establish database management system
It consists of three parts: database language, database management program and database application program.
Information security management
data analysis (Objects are divided into time series and cross-sectional data)
Data statistical analysis
Steps: ① Select digital features; ② Collect and organize data; ③ Calculate digital features; ④ Build a model; ⑤ Test model errors; ⑥ Use model predictions; ⑦ Evaluate statistics and prediction structures
Evaluation process: ① form a preliminary concept; ② characterize the phenomenon; ③ put forward the main points; ④ explain the reasons for the proposed point of view; ⑤ put forward arguments; ⑥ draw conclusions
Time data analysis methods
time series components
Trend: A long-term upward or downward tendency.
Seasonal fluctuations: cyclical fluctuations in actual processes caused by various influences.
Rule changes: changes with varying periods, alternating between ups and downs.
Irregular fluctuations: fluctuations after removing trends, seasonal changes and cyclical fluctuations
Steps: ① Obtain time series samples. ② Draw the sample points into a graph and conduct relevant analysis. ③Pattern recognition and fitting. ④Predict the future.
big data mining
Database and data warehouse mining
Steps: 8 steps of information collection, data integration, data specification, data cleaning, data transformation, data mining, pattern evaluation and knowledge representation.
web mining
Determine target samples, extract feature information, obtain network information, and match information features
The difference between data analysis and data mining
① Processing workload (the difference between more and less); ② Constraint conditions (data mining does not make assumptions and automatically establishes equations); ③ Processing objects (there are many types of data mining objects); ④ Processing results (data mining results are not easy to interpret, focus on to predict the future and make decision-making recommendations)
knowledge management
Consulting knowledge and its characteristics: ① Large quantity and variety; ② Hidden knowledge is difficult to refine; ③ High confidentiality requirements
knowledge management principles
Principle of accumulation, principle of sharing, principle of exchange
effectiveness evaluation
①Human resources: training costs, employee centripetal force and experience;
②Innovation results: R&D expenses, employee innovation attitude and ratio, consulting business updates, intellectual property rights;
③Customer attitude: service quality, cooperation time, number of consultations, sales, etc.
Steps to establish a knowledge management system
①Cognition: Business managers propose knowledge management strategies
②Planning: Based on cognition, formulate detailed implementation plan
③ Pilot: Select appropriate departments and businesses to pilot knowledge management
④ Put into use: After piloting and improvement, comprehensive promotion
⑤Establishing a new system: the process of self-improvement
Main theories and methods of planning consultation
regional development theory
Spatial distribution of towns and industries
central place theory
Centers can be divided into different levels according to their size and functions.
Growth pole and point axis development theory
polarization effect
Areas with superior location conditions attract production factors from surrounding areas to continuously converge to the pole, generating economies of scale in the pole area and enhancing the pole's self-development capabilities and competitiveness.
diffusion effect
There is a gap between the development level of the growth pole and the surrounding areas, which leads to the transfer of production factors to the periphery and has a radiating and driving effect on the surrounding areas.
core-periphery theory
The core area has a high capacity for innovation and change and occupies a dominant position in the spatial system.
gradient transfer theory
The creation and application of emerging industries, new products, new processes, new technologies and new management methods included in economic innovation activities first originated in high-gradient areas; and then gradually moved to low-gradient areas over time.
The degree of population and industrial agglomeration
Population density
Population density is an important indicator to measure the degree of population agglomeration, usually using person/square kilometer or person/hectare as the unit.
City primacy
Two-city index calculation method: S2=P1/P2
Four-city index: S4=P1/(P2+P3+P4)
Eleven city index: S11=2P1/(P2+P3+…+P11)
location entropy
Also known as the specialization rate, it is used to measure the spatial distribution of factors in a certain region, reflecting the degree of specialization of a certain industrial sector, as well as the status and role of a certain region in the country.
e represents the region, E represents the country; i represents the i industry, and t represents all industries.
evaluation standard
① If location entropy is greater than 1, it can be considered that the industry is a specialized sector of the region. The products or services provided by the industry not only meet regional needs but are also exported to outside the region; ② The greater the location entropy, the higher the level of specialization; ③ If the location If the entropy is less than or equal to 1, the industry is considered to be a self-sufficient sector that mainly meets the region's own needs.
Advantage
Simple and easy to implement, easy to obtain data
limitation
① Location entropy is a static analysis, which is difficult to reflect the dynamic changes in industrial advantages and the interaction between industries; ② The method is based on the premise that each industry has the same labor productivity at the national and regional levels, but in reality the labor productivity of each industry There is definitely a difference in productivity. ③The influence of enterprise size factors is not considered.
Competitive Advantage Theory and Diamond Model
Four basic elements (resource elements, demand conditions, related and supporting industries, and corporate strategy)
factors of production
primary factors of production
advanced production factors
Requirements
Demand conditions mainly refer to the demand in the domestic market. Demand conditions are the driving force for industrial development, mainly including demand structure, demand scale and demand growth, among which demand Demand structure is more important than demand size.
Related and supporting industries
The development of an industry is inseparable from its upstream and downstream industries, that is, related industries. Only by forming an effective "industrial cluster"
Business status
Corporate strategy, structure and industry competition
Two auxiliary elements (government and opportunity)
Regional development stage analysis
industrialization development stage
Industrialization development stages divided by GDP per capita
Chenery Standard Model
The World Bank’s classification of development stages
By 2019 standards, a per capita income of US$1,025 below GNI (per capita national income) is considered low income, US$1,026 to US$3,995 is defined as lower-middle income, US$3,996 to US$12,375 is defined as upper-middle income, and US$12,375 or above is considered high income.
On the basis of these four classifications, low- and middle-income countries or regions are called developing economies, and high-income countries or regions are called developed economies.
The stages of industrial structure and employment structure division
Industrial structure
Three industry classifications
employment structure
Divided by three industries, divided by specific industries, divided by economic type, divided by urban and rural areas
Influencing factors: labor supply and demand, economic growth, industrial structure
Petty-Clarke Theorem and Kuznets Rule
An important theorem explaining the relationship between industrial structure and per capita national income. The income gap between different industrial sectors leads to the transfer of labor force
Industrial structure optimization
The main factors affecting the optimization of industrial structure include economy, population, environment, system, etc. The level of economic development is the most basic factor that determines the industrial structure, including the level of productivity development, social division of labor and specialization, and the scale of the total economic volume. and degree of growth, etc.
Urbanization development stage
The urbanization level is between 10% and 30%, which is the initial stage of low urbanization level and slow development.
After the urbanization level reaches 30%, the urban population grows rapidly and enters the rapid development stage of urbanization.
When the urbanization level increases to 70%, the urbanization process will enter a relatively stable or even stagnant stage.
Classification
Active urbanization: urbanization in sync with economic development
Negative urbanization: urbanization out of sync with economic development
Over-urbanization: the level of urbanization exceeds the level of industrialization and economic development
Low urbanization: the level of urbanization is significantly lower than the level of industrialization and economic development
Factors that affect the level of urbanization include population, land area, resource conditions, economic structure, historical foundation, etc. Among them, the level of economic development is most closely related to it.
economic growth stage theory
traditional social stage
The social structure of the traditional social stage was developed with limited production functions, using pre-Newtonian technologies and ways of viewing the material world, and the economy was relatively closed or isolated.
Preparing for takeoff
Economic system reform creates conditions for development, and its leading industries are usually the primary industry or labor-intensive manufacturing.
Take-off stage
First, the productive investment rate has increased, accounting for more than 10% of national income; second, one or several leading sectors with high growth rates have appeared in the economy to drive the development of other sectors; third, through institutional reforms, a system that can promote economic structure of economic growth
Moving towards maturity stage
Refers to a period when a society has effectively applied the modern technology at that time to most industries. The main feature of this stage is that the ability to absorb and use new technologies has been significantly improved.
mass consumption stage
The increase in per capita income during this stage has led to the growth of durable consumer goods, and sectors related to durable consumer goods have become the leading sectors of the economy.
Beyond the mass consumption stage
The leading sector of the economy at this stage is the service industry that provides labor services and improves the quality of life.
Common methods for planning forecasting and analysis
Delphi method
step
① Establish a forecasting working group; ② Select experts (about 20 people); ③ Design questionnaires; ④ Organize and implement the survey; ⑤ Summarize and process the survey results.
Features
Anonymity, feedback, convergence, extensiveness
advantage
① Facilitate independent thinking and judgment. ②Achieve brainstorming at low cost. ③It is conducive to exploratory problem solving. ④Wide range of applications
shortcoming
① Lack of communication of ideas. ②It is easy to ignore the opinions of minority people. ③There is subjective influence from the organizer
Application scope
① Lack of sufficient information. ②Long-term planning or big trend prediction. ③There are too many factors that affect predicted events. ④Subjective factors have a greater impact on predicted events.
scenario analysis
step
① Determine key issues ② Identify influencing factors; ③ Scenario construction; ④ Scenario analysis; ⑤ Scenario evaluation; ⑥ Determine development strategy.
Application scope
Resource demand, energy consumption, pollutant emissions
Planning workflow methods
Preparatory stage
① Clarify the planning entrustment requirements (prepare for entrustment negotiations, identify the entrustment requirements and sign the contract. ② Establish a planning project team (select the project leader, select project team members, and formulate a planning work plan)
Research stage
① Desk research (collecting preliminary planning information and preliminary research); ② On-site research (formulating research plans and holding symposiums); ③ On-site survey
Draft planning stage
① Determine the planning framework; ② Compare and select planning plans; ③ Expert consultation; ④ Iterative improvement.
Planning linkage demonstration and review stage
① Plan connection; ② Expert demonstration; ③ Modification and improvement; ④ Plan submission for review and release.
Planning results form
① Text; ② Attached table; ③ Attached drawings; ④ Special research and demonstration report; ⑤ Preparation instructions.
Special analysis method
Resource and environmental carrying capacity analysis
Basic overview
connotation
It refers to the ability of the quantity and quality of resources and environment to support the survival and development of human society under the premise of maintaining a coordinated and sustainable relationship between man and nature, in a certain region, in a certain period, and at a certain level of science and technology.
type
Single element carrying capacity analysis
Resource support factors such as land resources, water resources, and mineral resource carrying capacity, or environmental constraints such as air and water
Comprehensive carrying capacity analysis
Regional carrying capacity, ecological carrying capacity, etc.
feature
Regional, objective, hierarchical, limited, dynamic, controllable (Airbus area, moving line layer)
Analysis framework
Specific procedures
①Basic evaluation of resource and environmental factors; ②Comprehensive evaluation of regional resource and environmental carrying capacity; ③Formulation of differentiated resource and environmental policies; ④Proposed appropriate direction and final planning plan for spatial development.
Analysis method system
Qualitative analysis
scenario analysis
It is an intuitive qualitative prediction method that assumes that a certain phenomenon or trend will continue into the future. It is mainly used for qualitative prediction of resource and environmental carrying capacity, and is often used in dynamic analysis in quantitative methods (such as system dynamics). In conjunction with
Quantitative analysis
static analysis
ecological footprint method
Various resource and energy consumption projects are converted into six biological production area types, including cultivated land, pasture, forest land, construction land, fossil energy land and ocean (water), to calculate the regional resource and environmental carrying capacity.
Factor Analysis
A few factors are used to describe the relationship between multiple indicators or factors, that is, several closely related variables are grouped into the same category, and each type of variable becomes a factor, and a smaller number of factors reflect the large scale of the raw materials. partial information to quantitatively analyze the main factors affecting the carrying capacity of resources and the environment.
Emergy analysis
The process of converting various forms of energy into a unified unit: solar joule (sej), and calculating the regional carrying capacity under a unified dimension
analytic hierarchy process
A decision-making method that decomposes the elements that are always relevant to decision-making into levels such as goals, criteria, plans, etc., and conducts qualitative and quantitative analysis on this basis, is suitable for each factor in the multi-factor and multi-level system of resource and environmental carrying capacity. Determination of weight
complex network method
Through abstract quantitative analysis and simulation of subjects and relationships between subjects, the characteristics of the research object and the status and role of different entities in the network are quantitatively analyzed from an overall perspective. Suitable for simulation and quantitative analysis of "economic" and "social" issues of pressure factors in resource and environmental carrying capacity
Dynamic Analysis
System Dynamics
According to the feedback characteristics of mutual causation among the internal components of the system, the root cause of the problem is found from the internal structure of the system, as well as the feedback of the entire system during the element change (decision-making) process. The system dynamics method generally uses dynamics to carry resources and the environment. Dynamic correlation between the various elements of power and dynamic analysis of carrying capacity under different decision-making policies from an overall perspective
genetic algorithm
The randomized search genetic algorithm (GENETICAlgorithm) evolved from the evolutionary law of the biological world (survival of the fittest, survival of the fittest genetic mechanism), can be used to dynamically analyze the results and possibilities of different strategies in terms of resource and environmental carrying capacity.
time series method
A method of using chronological data to predict the future, using past data to predict the future possibility of regional resource and environmental carrying capacity
Choice of method
Macroscale: global, national, provincial, comprehensive economic zone, first-level river basin, etc.
System dynamics method, analytic hierarchy process, comprehensive index method, state space method, etc.
Mesoscale: urban agglomerations, secondary watersheds, concentrated and contiguous poverty-stricken areas, etc.
Analytical hierarchy process, principal component analysis method, system dynamics method, ecological footprint method, set pair analysis model, etc.
Micro scale: cities, counties, individual cities, industrial parks, mining areas, rural settlements, etc.
GIS spatial analysis method, remote sensing analysis method, system dynamics method, principal component analysis method, etc.
Method changing trends
① From qualitative to quantitative; ② From single to comprehensive; ③ From static to dynamic
Commonly used analysis methods
ecological footprint method
calculate
Ecological footprint (EF): population * Σ (per capita area of various biologically productive land * various equilibrium factors)
Ecological carrying capacity (EC): (1-12% biological protection) * population * Σ (per capita various biologically productive land areas * various yield factors * various equilibrium factors)
Ecological surplus: ED=EC-EF>0, it is in an ecologically sustainable state.
Ecological deficit: ED=EC-EF<0 It shows that the human load in this area has exceeded its ecological capacity and is facing an unsustainable development situation. From the perspective of resource and environmental carrying capacity, human activities in this area are too intensive, which has exerted tremendous pressure on the resources and environment. This region needs to significantly improve resource and energy efficiency under current economic and technical conditions and in accordance with the spatial scope of ecosystem capacity, and gradually establish a green development model that is compatible with ecosystem capacity.
Disadvantages
First: The indicator has a single representation and is oversimplified. It only measures the degree of ecological sustainability, emphasizing the impact of human development on the environmental system and its sustainability, without taking into account human satisfaction with existing consumption patterns; Second: It is difficult to reflect the influence of factors such as the way of human activities, improvement of management level and technological progress; Third: Analysis methods based on status quo static data are difficult to perform dynamic simulation and prediction.
advantage
Data is relatively easy to obtain; calculation methods are operable; highly repeatable
Improve
Dynamic improvement - time series footprint model; process improvement - input-output footprint model, component method ecological footprint model
analytic hierarchy process
①Composition of evaluation index system
The evaluation index system is specifically divided into target layer, criterion layer, indicator layer and sub-indicator layer.
Ecosystem resilience: geology and landforms (S1), climate (S2), soil (S3), vegetation (S4), hydrology (S5)
Resource and environmental carrying capacity: resource elements (S1), environmental elements (S2)
Stress: Resource Stress (S1), Environmental Stress (S2)
②Target layer calculation
③Comprehensive evaluation
<20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-80, >80: Weak but medium is very strong; weak, low, medium and high; weak, low, medium and strong
Other methods
SystemsDynamics (SD)
Steps: ① System flow diagram design; ② Main state equation description and model construction; ③ Model simulation calculation
Approaching ideal solution sorting method (TOPSIS method)
Steps: ① Construct an evaluation index system; ② Construct a standardized evaluation matrix; ③ Construct an evaluation matrix; ④ Determine positive and negative ideal solutions; ⑤ Calculate distance; ⑥ Calculate the closeness of the evaluation object to the ideal solution
fuzzy evaluation method
According to the theory of fuzzy mathematics, the main factors of the object to be evaluated are selected, and a single factor evaluation is performed first. The evaluation results form a fuzzy relationship matrix, and then the weight of each factor in the overall comprehensive evaluation is considered.
Principal Component Analysis
A multivariate statistical method that studies the correlation between various elements through mathematical statistical analysis.
Emergy analysis
Based on emergy, the ecological economic benefits are quantitatively analyzed by converting the energy of different energy flows (energy logistics, currency flow, population flow, information flow, etc.) in the ecosystem into a unified standard of energy.
Supply and demand differential method
Regional ecological environment carrying capacity
(regional existing resource supply - resource demand)/resource demand
Regional ecological environment quality
(Existing ecological environment quality in the region - required ecological environment quality)/Existing ecological environment quality in the region
Strategic Analysis
market strategy (Marketing Master Plan)
type
overall strategy
stabilization strategy
Strategies that are limited by the operating environment and internal conditions and can only basically maintain the starting point and scope of the strategy, including no-change strategies, profit strategies, etc.
development strategy (offensive, growth)
New field entry strategy
In order to get rid of industrial difficulties or discover new industry growth opportunities, including entering new markets and new industries, etc.
integrated strategy
Vertical integration (backward integration, forward integration), horizontal integration
Diversification Strategy
Correlated multivariate and uncorrelated multivariate
Retreat strategy (retreat type)
Gradually withdraw from industries that have no development or little development potential, including retrenchment strategy, pivot strategy and abandonment strategy
basic competitive strategy
Cost leadership strategy
meaning
The core is to reduce the production cost of products on the basis of pursuing economies of scale in output, and win the competition with a lower cost advantage than competitors.
feature
Low product diversification; limited market segmentation, products oriented to the mass market and ordinary customers; high requirements for manufacturing capabilities and material management capabilities
advantage
Have strong bargaining power with suppliers; less susceptible to the influence of larger buyers or sellers than competitors; can create barriers to potential entrants
Disadvantages
Technological progress causes the loss of experience curve advantages and leads to imitation by competitors; it is easy to ignore the needs of different customers
Differentiation Strategy
meaning
Enterprises provide distinctive products or services to the market to meet the different needs of users, which can cultivate customer brand loyalty and enable the enterprise to obtain higher than average profits in the same industry.
feature
High product diversification; many market analysis points; high R&D capability requirements
Classification
Product quality differentiation strategy, sales service differentiation strategy, product performance differentiation strategy, brand differentiation strategy
advantage
Brand loyalty increases buyer dependence and reduces the threat of substitutes
Disadvantages
Being threatened by imitation after entering the maturity stage
focus strategy
meaning
Enterprises focus their operations on a specific target market and provide special products and services for specific regions and specific consumer groups.
feature
Special diversification concentrations and cost leadership concentrations; one or a few market segments; any kind of specialized capabilities within a concentration strategy
advantage
Build customer loyalty and be able to respond to customer needs and leverage their capabilities in their concentrated markets
Disadvantages
Technological changes and changes in customer needs pose threats, leading to the loss of customers, which is relatively costly
functional strategy
Study the different departments of an enterprise such as R&D design, investment, marketing, finance, human resources, and production and how they are organized to serve the overall strategy of the enterprise, including R&D strategy, investment strategy, marketing strategy, production strategy, financial strategy, and human resources strategy etc.
Product Lifecycle
Introduction period (paying huge costs to cultivate the market)
There are few companies in the industry, low market demand and high costs.
Growth period (ideal period to enter)
Market demand has expanded sharply, product quality has improved, and costs have dropped.
Mature stage (high entry barriers)
Product technology is mature, costs are falling, profits are high, and industry growth is slowing down
Decline period (not suitable to enter this industry)
Substitutable new products emerge, and the market for original products shrinks rapidly
competitive capability analysis (Distribution of number and size of companies in the industry)
Industry competition structure analysis
competitive structure
in accordance with
Market concentration, entry and introduction barriers, product differentiation and information completeness
feature
Analysis method: (Porter) five-factor analysis model
Horizontal factors: The threat of new entrants to the industry. (Depending on industry entry barriers and counterattack strategies of existing businesses that may be encountered)
Horizontal factors: competition from existing firms. (The most important competitive force)
Horizontal factors: Threat of substitutes. (price competitiveness of substitutes; satisfaction with quality and performance of substitutes; ease of customer switching to substitutes)
Vertical factors: Bargaining power of suppliers.
Vertical factors: Bargaining power of customers. (Putting companies in the industry against each other, thus leading to a reduction in industry profitability)
Enterprise competitiveness analysis
competitive situation matrix
① First determine the key strategic factors in the industry. ② Determine the weight of each factor based on its relative importance to operating successfully in the industry. ③Select the main competitors and rate the company according to each indicator. ④ Multiply the evaluation value of each factor by the corresponding weight to obtain a weighted score of the relative competitiveness of each competitor on the corresponding strategic factor. ⑤ Calculate the total weighted score of the enterprise. By comparing the total weighted score, you can determine the company with the strongest and weakest competitiveness, as well as the difference in competitive advantages between the evaluated companies.
Core competitiveness analysis
Technology: technological innovation ability, product innovation ability, application ability on established technologies, online marketing ability, etc.
Manufacturing: low production costs, high production capacity utilization, high labor skills, strong product design capabilities, etc.
Resource processing: control ability of natural resources, financial financing ability, cost control ability
Daily consumer goods manufacturing: quality management, brand building, cost control, sales network, etc.
Distribution category: strong wholesale network/special dealer network, company-controlled retail stores, own distribution channels and outlets, low sales costs, fast delivery, etc.
Service Category: Favorable company image/reputation, low total cost, convenient facility location, courteous employees, financing capabilities
value chain analysis (Seize key links to conduct competitive advantage research)
①Identify corporate value activities
Basic activities: raw material distribution, production and manufacturing, product distribution, product sales, after-sales service
Auxiliary activities: basic corporate activities (finance, planning, etc.), human resource management, R&D and design, procurement
② Determine the value of the activity
Evaluate each activity to find out the cost and value generated by the activity, and analyze whether the input and output are commensurate, thereby determining the value of each activity in the enterprise value chain.
③Improve value chain activities
Reconfigure and improve the company's activities based on the value of each activity in the company's value chain
Portfolio Analysis (The balance of cash flows between businesses, the best combination of corporate resources)
boston matrix
Graphing a 2*2 matrix (匚)
Horizontal axis (from left to right): Relative market share (ratio to the market share of the largest competitor), 1.5 high, 1.0 medium, 0.1 low
Vertical axis (from bottom to top): Growth rate of the industry in which the company is located, 0 is low, 10% is medium, and 20% is high.
"Problem" business (first quadrant)
Features
The industry has a high growth rate and requires enterprises to invest a large amount of funds to support it; the market share is low and cannot bring high financial returns to enterprises.
specific measure
Determine whether to make additional investment and expand market share through in-depth analysis of whether the company has development potential and competitive advantages.
strategic application
Development strategy, stability strategy, retreat strategy
"Star" business (Second Quadrant)
Features
The market share and industry growth rate are high, the industry is in the growth stage of the life cycle, the products have development potential, and the company has competitive strength
specific measure
Additional investment to expand business
strategic application
development strategy
"Golden Bull" business (Third Quadrant)
Features
The market share is high, the industry growth rate is low, the industry is in the mature stage of the life cycle, the enterprise has a large production scale, and has a large and stable cash income
specific measure
Maintain stable production and no additional investment so that the investment can be recovered as soon as possible and profits can be obtained
strategic application
stabilization strategy
"Thin Dog" Business (Fourth Quadrant)
Features
Market share and industry growth rate are both low. The industry is in a mature or declining stage of its life cycle. Market competition is fierce and corporate profitability is poor
specific measure
If the business can be operated and maintained, the business scope should be reduced; if the enterprise is losing money, the business should be integrated or exited.
strategic application
retreat strategy, stabilization strategy
General Matrix (GE)
Drawing a 3*3 matrix
Horizontal axis (from left to right): corporate strength, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1
Vertical axis (from bottom to top): Industry attractiveness, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Advantage
The general matrix adds an intermediate level to address the defect of the Boston matrix coordinate scale being too coarse.
balanced scorecard (strategic-oriented performance management system)
Basic Features
① Systematic management system; ② Tools for performance measurement; ③ Tools for communication; ④ Focus on the cause-and-effect relationship of indicators
Fundamental contents
Four dimensions of evaluation
financial level
List the company's financial goals and measure whether the implementation and execution of strategies contribute to the improvement of final operating results.
customer level
Businesses compete for customers and markets and convert goals into a set of metrics. Such as market share, customer stability rate, customer acquisition rate, customer satisfaction, customer profitability level, etc.
Internal business process level
In order to attract and retain customers in target markets and meet shareholders' requirements for financial returns, managers need to pay attention to those internal processes that have the greatest impact on customer satisfaction and the achievement of corporate financial goals, and set up corresponding measurement indicators.
learning and growth aspects
In order to achieve long-term performance, companies must invest in the future, including the improvement of employee capabilities, corporate information systems, etc., to continuously promote improvements in product quality, efficiency, new product development and customer satisfaction, and ultimately increase sales. , reduce operating expenses and increase asset turnover rate, improve corporate efficiency.
five balances
①The balance between financial indicators and non-financial indicators. ②The balance between the company's long-term goals and short-term goals. ③The balance between result indicators and motivation indicators. ④The balance between internal groups and external groups of the enterprise. ⑤The balance between leading indicators and lagging indicators.
Process steps
① Establishment and advocacy of corporate strategy; ② Design and establishment of performance indicator system; ③ Strengthening communication and education within the enterprise; ④ Measurement and analysis of the implementation of performance indicators; ⑤ Improvement and improvement of performance indicator system.
Application
①Use the balanced scorecard to explain the strategy; ②Use the balanced scorecard to promote the strategy; ③Use the balanced scorecard to strengthen goal orientation; ④Use the balanced scorecard to promote strategy implementation
Market analysis
Classification of market forecasting methods
Qualitative forecasting method
analogy prediction method
① Product analogy forecasting method; ② Industry analogy forecasting method; ③ Regional forecasting method (regional differences must be fully considered)
expert prediction method
① Expert personal judgment method
Advantages: Able to maximize the creativity of experts, free from external influence and no psychological pressure
Disadvantages: It is easily affected by personal factors, lacks an atmosphere of mutual inspiration, and inevitably has certain limitations.
②Expert meeting method
Brainstorming method, confrontational meeting method, hybrid meeting method
③Hybrid meeting method
The two stages are a questioning brainstorming meeting to generate various ideas and prediction plans; the second stage is a confrontational meeting to question and discuss various ideas in the previous stage, and also to propose new ideas and continue to inspire. Achieve consistent prediction conclusions
④Delphi method
Generally speaking, the number of selected experts is about 20, which can be adjusted according to the scale and importance of the prediction problem.
A questionnaire should be designed in the Delphi method to allow experts to evaluate and judge relatively concentrated forecast events and put forward further opinions. After the forecast working group compiles statistics, a preliminary forecast opinion is formed. If necessary, a questionnaire can be developed based on the prediction results of the second round and a third round of prediction can be carried out.
After sorting out the opinions, the survey results were summarized for further statistical analysis and data processing. Indicators such as the mean, median, mode, and average subjective probability of expert estimates can be calculated.
symptom index method (alternative indicator)
Meaning: Based on the relationship between food indicators, we can judge the appearance and changes of a certain food that may be caused by symptom quality assurance.
Level: ① internal causal relationship; ② external causal relationship; ③ external phenomenon relationship
Point-to-point association method
Meaning: A point-to-face prediction method based on the census data and sampling data of the survey objects, through analysis, judgment, association, etc.
Scope: Qualitative prediction of similar events, close events and other related events expands the application scope of survey data and has certain advantages in prediction of emerging fields and missing or insufficient historical data.
Procedure: ① Collect relevant information about the survey objects; ② Organize relevant experts to analyze, judge and associate the data to predict the market; ③ Summarize and process the expert forecast results; ④ Draw forecast conclusions.
Quantitative-causal analysis
linear regression analysis
Prediction steps: ① Use historical data to calculate regression parameters a, b, and establish a regression model; ② Perform regression testing, bring historical data into the model to test the regression coefficients and regression equations to determine the rationality and practicality of the prediction model; ③ Bring the future value x of the independent variable into the regression model to perform point prediction and interval prediction; ④ Analysis of prediction results
Formula: y=ax b,
regression test
Analysis of variance: R square = normalized variance/partial variance, the percentage of variation in Y that can be explained by X.
Correlation coefficient test
R=Σ(deviation of x times deviation of y)/((deviation of x times deviation of y)^-2)
A quantitative indicator that describes the closeness of the linear correlation between two variables
Under the degree of freedom (n-2) and the significance level α (generally α=0.05), if R is greater than the critical value, the linear relationship between variables x and y is established. The closer the absoluteness of R is to 1, the linear relationship will be the better
t-test
t=b times (partial deviation of X/((partial deviation of Y-reduced variance of Y))/degrees of freedom)^-2
It obeys the t distribution. By looking up the t distribution table, we can find the value t (α/2, n-2) with a significance level of α and degrees of freedom of n-2. If the absolute value of t > the look-up table value, it indicates that the linear assumption between x and y is established; if the absolute value of t ≤ the look-up table value, the assumption is not true.
Point prediction and area prediction
The prediction interval with a confidence level of 100 (1-α)% is: y0'±t (α/2, n-2) S0
There is a 100(1-α)% probability that the true value falls into the interval.
elastic coefficient method
①Income elasticity (rate of change in purchase quantity/rate of change in income); ②Price elasticity (rate of change in purchase quantity/rate of price change, generally a negative number); ③Elasticity of energy demand (change rate of energy consumption/change in gross domestic product) rate), rate of change of quantity/rate of change of price
consumption coefficient method
It analyzes the consumption quantity of a certain product in various industries. On the basis of understanding the planned output of each industry, the demand of each industry is summarized to obtain the total demand of the product. (Industry-wide coefficient statistics, summed)
purchasing power estimation method
Residents’ expected purchasing power = residents’ predicted money income – tax payments – net increase in deposits – other non-commodity expenditures
Forecast residents’ demand for goods = residents’ predicted purchasing power*k1*k2 (grading coefficient)
Quantitative-extension analysis
moving average method
simple moving average method
Average prediction of the next n items
The value of n
The smaller the n value, the more emphasis is placed on the prediction of recent observation values, and the faster the prediction value responds to data changes, but the smoothness of the prediction is lower, and the accuracy of the estimate may also be reduced. The larger the n value, the higher the degree of smoothing of the predicted value, but the slower the response to data changes. (The value of n is generally between 3 and 200.)
For data with trend or step characteristics, in order to improve the response speed of the predicted value to data changes and reduce the prediction error, the n value should be smaller.
Features
Simple and easy to master. It is only effective when dealing with horizontal historical data. In real economic life, the type of historical data is far more complex than horizontal data, which limits the application scope of the moving average method.
weighted moving average method
Weighted average of the previous n items predicts the next item
Exponential smoothing
Advantages: It solves the shortcomings of the moving average requiring n observations and not considering the data of the previous period t-n. Through a certain averaging method, it can eliminate random fluctuations in the historical statistical series and find out the main development trends.
Fn=αXn+(1-α)Fn-1
Determination of α value: When the observation value develops at a relatively stable level, the α value is between 0.1 and 0.3; when the observation value fluctuates greatly, the α value is between 0.3 and 0.5; when the observation value fluctuates greatly, the α value is between 0.1 and 0.3. Between 0.5 and 0.8.
Determination of the initial value F0: When the time series period is more than 20, the initial value F0 has little impact on the prediction results, and can be replaced by the observed value of the first period, that is, F0 = X1; when the time series period is 20 In the following cases, the initial value F0 has a certain impact on the prediction results, and can be replaced by the average of the first 3 to 5 observed values, such as: F0 = (X1+X2+X3)/3.
Investment and Financing Analysis
Fund equivalent calculation
Given the present value, find the final value (F/P,i,n) →F=P(1 i)^n
Know the future value and find the present value (P/F,i,n) →P=F(1 i)^(-n)
Given the annual value, find the final value (F/A,i,n)→F=A*[(1 i)^n-1]/i
Given the final value, find the annual value (A/F,i,n)→A=F*i/[(1 i)^n-1]
Given the present value, find the annual value (A/P,i,n)→A=P[(1 i)^n]/{[(1 i)^n-1]/i}
Given the annual value, find the present value (P/A,i,n)→P=A*{[(1 i)^n-1]/i}/[(1 i)^n]
VAT
Value-added tax is only paid when the accumulated profit is accumulated, and the loan debt can be deducted
Value-added tax = output tax – input tax – input tax on fixed assets
Sales revenue (tax included) = Sales revenue (tax excluded) * (1 tax rate) = Sales revenue (tax excluded) Output tax
Operating costs (tax included) = fixed costs variable costs (tax included)
Total investment in construction projects
Construction costs (A B C) (construction investment) ①Unit production capacity estimation method: Proposed investment amount = Proposed production capacity/Constructed production capacity*Constructed project investment amount*Comprehensive coefficient ②Production capacity index method: Proposed investment = Built investment * (Proposed production capacity / Built production capacity) ^n * Comprehensive coefficient There is not much difference in scale. The ratio of X1 to When the production capacity ratio is between 2 and 50, and it is achieved by increasing the number of equipment of the same specification, n takes a value between 0.8 and 0.9. ③Proportion estimation method; ④Coefficient estimation method; ⑤Estimation index method
A project cost
A1 construction project fee: ① unit construction project investment estimation method; ② unit physical project quantity investment estimation method; ③ budget index investment estimation method
A2 equipment purchase fee
A21 Domestic equipment purchase fee = original price of equipment (ex-factory price includes spare parts costs) + equipment transportation and miscellaneous charges, equipment transportation and miscellaneous charges = original price of equipment * rate
A22 Imported equipment purchase fee Pay attention to foreign exchange rates
A221 Imported equipment price = FOB price
A222 Import Subordinate Charges CIF price FOB A2221~A2222 CIF price FOB A2221~A2227
A2221 Overseas freight = FOB price * rate or foreign freight = unit price * volume
A2222 foreign transportation insurance premium = (FOB A2221) * rate
A2223 import tariff = (FOB A2221~A2222)*tax rate
A2224 import link consumption tax = (FOB A2221~A2223)/(1-consumption tax rate)*consumption tax rate, usually not involved in the calculation
A2225 import value-added tax = (FOB A2221~A2224) * tax rate
A2226 foreign trade handling fee = (FOB A2221~A2222) * foreign trade handling fee rate
A2227 bank finance fee = FOB * bank finance rate
A223 Domestic transportation and miscellaneous charges = FOB price * rate
A3 installation engineering fee = original price of equipment × installation fee rate or A3 = equipment tonnage × equipment installation fee indicator per ton or A3 = physical volume of installation project × cost indicator of physical installation volume per unit
B Project construction other expenses
B1 construction land costs include ① land acquisition compensation: land compensation fee, resettlement subsidy fee, compensation fee for ground attachments and young crops, land acquisition and relocation fees, other taxes and fees; ② land use right transfer (transfer) fee; ③ leased during the construction period Land rental fees incurred in obtaining land use rights, as well as compensation fees for temporary land use during the construction period
B2~B17 are construction management fees, preliminary work consulting fees, research and test fees, engineering survey and design fees, bidding agency fees, project supervision fees, environmental impact assessment fees, site preparation and temporary facilities fees, other fees for introducing technology and equipment, and engineering Insurance premiums, municipal public facilities construction and greening compensation fees, joint commissioning fees, production safety fees, patent and proprietary technology usage fees, production preparation fees, office and living furniture purchase fees
Can be divided into other fixed asset expenses, intangible asset expenses, other asset expenses
C reserve fee
C1 basic reserve fee (unforeseen construction fee) should cope with the increase in future project volume, C1=(A B)*basic reserve rate
C2 price increase reserve fee (unforeseen price change fee) to cope with the rise in inflation: Calculated on an annual basis, C2 = ∑ Project cost in the nth year * [(1 increase index) ^n-1]
Interest during construction period (calculated on an annual basis)
Different interest calculation methods need to be converted into annual effective interest rates according to the interest calculation cycle ieff= (1 i/n)^n-1
①Occurs at the beginning of each year during the construction period, and interest is paid at the end of each year during the construction period, L=∑Principal at the beginning of each year × interest rate
② Occurs at the beginning of each year during the construction period, and no interest is paid during the construction period, L = ∑ (principal at the beginning of each year + interest from previous years) × interest rate
③Equilibrium occurs in each year of the construction period, and interest is paid at the end of each year during the construction period, L=∑ (principal at the beginning of each year + borrowing for the year/2) × interest rate
③ The construction period occurs evenly in each year, and no interest is paid during the construction period, L = ∑ (principal at the beginning of each year + interest from previous years + current year’s borrowing/2) × interest rate
Liquidity (Z-Y) The basis for working capital estimation is mainly operating income and operating costs. ①Expanded indicator estimation method Liquidity = annual operating income × operating income funding rate Working capital = annual operating cost × operating cost funding rate Working capital = annual output × amount of working capital occupied by unit output ②Itemized detailed estimation method Liquidity = Current Assets – Current Liabilities Current assets = accounts receivable + prepaid accounts + inventory + cash Current liabilities = accounts payable + accounts received in advance Increase in working capital this year = working capital this year - working capital last year
Annual turnover = 360 days/minimum number of turnover days
Z Current Assets Estimate (Z1 Z2 Z3 Z4)
Z1 inventory= (Z11 Z12 Z13 Z14)
Z11 Purchased raw materials and fuels = Annual purchased raw materials and fuels/Annual turnover times of raw materials and fuels
Z12 Other materials = annual outsourcing cost of other materials/annual turnover times of other materials
Z13 Product in progress = (Annual outsourced raw materials, fuel, and power costs + Annual salary and welfare costs + Annual repair costs + Annual other manufacturing expenses)/Annual turnover times of Product in progress
Z14 finished products = (annual operating cost – annual other operating expenses) / annual turnover times of finished products
Z2 accounts receivable = (outsourced raw materials, fuel and power costs + wages or salaries + repair costs + other expenses) / annual turnover of accounts receivable Or Z2=annual operating cost//annual turnover of accounts receivable
Z3 prepaid accounts = prepaid annual expenses for various types of raw materials, fuel or services/annual turnover times of prepaid accounts
Z4 cash = (annual salary and benefits + annual other expenses) / number of cash turnovers
Y current liabilities (Y1 Y2)
Y1 accounts payable = annual costs of purchased raw materials, fuel, power and other materials/annual turnover of accounts payable
Y2 Accounts received in advance = annual amount of operating income received in advance/number of annual turnovers of accounts received in advance
project financing
Revenue (output tax) → operating costs (input tax) → value-added tax (taxes and surcharges) [profit before interest and tax] → repay interest [profit before tax (total profit)] → pay income tax [profit after tax (net profit) )] → Profit distribution of preferred shares (fixed dividend) → Profit distribution of common shares
Capital cost = capital occupation fee, capital raising fee, capital cost is usually expressed in terms of capital cost rate. The capital cost rate refers to the rate of return or discount rate that can make the funds raised equal to the various expenses incurred during the financing period and the period of using the funds, and the various considerations paid to the fund providers. NPV=0
Equity capital cost (simple interest)
i Preferred stock capital cost = preferred stock dividend (money) / (preferred stock issuance price - issuance cost), issuance costs and dividends are calculated based on the par price
iCommon stock capital cost
① Capital asset pricing model method (CAPM model): common stock capital cost = social risk-free investment rate of return investment risk coefficient (market portfolio expected rate of return - social risk-free investment rate of return)
②Pre-tax debt cost risk premium method: common stock capital cost = pre-tax debt capital cost. The risk premium required by investors to bear greater risks than creditors (usually 4%)
③Dividend growth model method: common stock capital cost = expected annual dividend amount/common stock market price expected annual growth rate of common dividends
Profit distribution income tax is paid after tax and does not have a tax deduction effect
Cost of Debt Funding (Compound Interest)
basic calculations
Borrowing cost of funds calculation: Fund raising fees are incurred at the beginning of the first year
Bond Funding Cost Calculation
Premium issuance (issuance at a price higher than the face value of the bond)
Issuance at a discount (issuance at a price lower than the face value of the bond)
Issue at equal value (issued at the face value of the bond)
The issuance fee occurs at the beginning of the first year, and the redemption fee occurs at the end of the last year, and is calculated based on the issuance price.
Financial leasing capital cost calculation
The lease fees paid under finance leases generally include capital occupation fees similar to loan financing and amortization of principal. Involving (P/A,i,n)
Scenario 1: After-tax debt funding cost
The cost of capital after taking into account the different tax deduction effects of interest and principal
Interest income tax is paid before tax and has a tax deductible effect
The capital cost after income tax on borrowings, bonds and other financing: capital cost = pre-tax capital cost * (1-income tax rate)
Calculation of after-tax capital cost after considering the impact of income tax exemption year T
Whether the interest for each year within the debt period should be multiplied by (1-T) should be determined based on the specific circumstances of the project.
The income tax-free years during the construction period or operation period of the project are not multiplied by (1-T)
Scenario 2: Fund cost after deducting the impact of inflation: Fund cost after deducting the impact of inflation = (1 Fund cost before deducting the impact of inflation) / (1 + inflation rate) - 1
Scenario 1 and 2 are both the same: tax first, inflation later, income tax is also affected by inflation
Weighted average cost of capital = ∑ (cost of various types of capital * proportion of cost of various types of capital)
Fund structure optimization comparison and selection
The optimal financing structure refers to the capital structure that has the lowest expected weighted average capital cost rate and the largest income and project value under moderate financial risk conditions.
① Comparative capital cost method (Weighted average cost of funds rate)
Capital structure decisions for initial financing
Based on the total amount of financing, under the same environment and risks, the selection is made through the calculation and comparison of the weighted average financing cost rate.
Capital structure decisions for additional financing
Due to additional financing and changes in the financing environment, the original optimal capital structure of the project needs to be adjusted, and a new optimal capital structure needs to be sought amidst constant changes to achieve the optimization of the capital structure.
②Earnings before interest and taxes-profit per share analysis method
A method that combines the profitability of a company with the impact of liabilities on shareholder wealth, analyzes the relationship between capital structure and profit per share, and then determines a reasonable capital structure is called the profit before interest and tax-profit per share analysis method (EBIT- EPS analysis method), also known as the profit per share indifference point method.
Revenue (output tax) → operating costs (input tax) → value-added tax (taxes and surcharges) [profit before interest and tax] → repay interest [profit before tax (total profit)] → pay income tax [profit after tax (net profit) )] → Profit distribution of preferred shares (fixed dividend) → Profit distribution of common shares
Analysis of asset securitization plan
Related concepts
Assets that lack liquidity but can be expected to generate stable cash flow based on their existing credit records are separated and reorganized, and then packaged and distributed into financial products that can be sold and circulated in the capital market, such as asset-backed securities. The process of asset financing is ultimately realized through investors’ subscription.
Features
①Asset securitization is asset-backed financing
The source of repayment is mainly the cash flow generated by the underlying assets and has nothing to do with the overall credit of the sponsor.
②Asset securitization is structured financing
Establishing a specialized agency for asset securitization; “real sale” asset transfer; reorganizing the cash flow of underlying assets
③Asset securitization is off-balance sheet financing
Asset securitization is an off-balance sheet financing method and will not increase the size of the financier’s assets and liabilities (it will not be included in the balance sheet)
effect
① Effective risk isolation is conducive to protecting the interests of all parties (trust system)
② Diversified basic assets reduce comprehensive financing costs
③Multi-level financing objects promote the flow of credit assets
④The revitalization of liquidity helps the sponsors manage their assets and liabilities
Asset securitization model design
①Initiator, the initiator is the starting point of asset securitization, the original equity holder of the underlying assets, and the seller of the underlying assets.
②Special purpose entity, SPV is an intermediary between the sponsor and investors, and is the real issuer of asset-backed securities.
③The service person supervises and takes care of the asset projects and the cash flows they generate, and is responsible for collecting the due principal and interest of these assets.
④The trustee is responsible for the custody of the asset portfolio and all powers related to it, and performs functions on behalf of investors.
⑤Underwriters promote the issuance of securities to help the securities be successfully issued to, usually underwritten by financial intermediaries such as investment banks.
⑥Credit enhancement agencies can adopt two methods: internal enhancement and external enhancement. Corresponding to these two methods, credit enhancement agencies are the sponsor and independent third party respectively.
⑦Credit rating agencies, Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch.
⑧Investors, purchasers and holders of asset-backed securities issued by SPV, are generally divided into public investors and institutional investors
Basic process of asset securitization
① Determine the securitized assets and form an asset pool, ② Establish a special purpose vehicle (SPV), ③ Complete transfer of assets, ④ Credit enhancement, ⑤ Credit rating, ⑥ Package sale of securities, ⑦ Pay consideration to the sponsor, ⑧ Manage the asset pool , ⑨Settlement of securities.
Pricing models and their applications
Factors affecting pricing
Interest rate - the key variable and the most fundamental factor in pricing
Volatility – determines the value of embedded options
Prepayment – Changes to Cash Flows
Term structure model - a description of interest rates
Liquidity - Liquidity Premium and Liquidity Risk
Credit enhancement – improved pricing basis and credit spread
Pricing model (find present value)
static discounted cash flow model
Monte Carlo simulation model
option adjusted spread method
PPP project asset securitization
practical significance
Revitalize existing PPP project assets
Attract more social capital to participate in the provision of public services
Improve project stable operation capabilities
main mode
Basic assets mainly include three types of income rights assets, debt assets and equity assets. Among them, income rights assets are the most important basic asset type for PPP project asset securitization.
Three types of income rights as underlying assets
user pays
Business projects, highway tolls
Government pays
Non-operating projects cannot exceed 10% of general public budget expenditures
Viability Gap Grant
Quasi-business projects
There are three modes of asset securitization for PPP projects: ①Special asset-backed plan; ②Asset-backed notes; ③Asset-backed plan.
M&A financing and debt restructuring
M&A financing methods
internal financing
Own funds, interest and taxes payable, unused or unallocated special funds
Features: Funds come from within the enterprise, no financing fees are incurred, and it has obvious cost advantages. It also has efficiency advantages and can effectively reduce time costs.
external financing
Equity financing: common stock financing, preferred stock financing
Debt financing: loan financing, bond financing
Hybrid financing: convertible bonds (creditors become shareholders), warrants (options, call options to purchase a specified number of common shares at a specific price)
Features: Equity financing forms the owner's equity of the enterprise, which will have varying degrees of impact on the equity structure, and even affect the control rights of the original shareholders over the enterprise; debt financing enterprises need to repay principal and interest on time, which may have a greater impact on the capital structure. Changes in corporate debt ratios will affect corporate financial risks; hybrid financing has the characteristics of both equity financing and debt financing
Fair value valuation method
①The first category is the income method, which includes two specific methods: the income capitalization method and the future income discount method;
a. On the premise that the enterprise continues to operate, the annuity method and segmentation method can be used for evaluation:
①Annuity method
P=A/r, P - enterprise appraisal value; A - annual annuity income of the enterprise; r - discount rate or capitalization rate.
Dynamic average annuity
②Segmentation method
If the annual rate of return is relatively stable after the unstable period ends, the formula of the segmented method is:
If after the end of the unstable period, the annual returns maintain steady growth, assuming that in the later period starting from year (n+1), the company's expected annual returns will grow at a fixed rate g,
b. Enterprise value assessment based on the assumption that the enterprise will continue to operate as a limited company
First, estimate and discount the company's income within the foreseeable operating period; second, estimate and discount the value of the company's participating assets after the operating period; and finally, add the two results.
②The second category is the market method. The market method is mainly divided into the reference enterprise comparison method and the merger and acquisition case comparison method;
a. Refer to the enterprise comparison method
Appraisal value per share = price-to-book ratio × net assets per share of the appraised unit
Price-to-book ratio = market price/net assets
Net assets per share of the assessed unit = net assets of the asset-occupying unit on the valuation base date/total share capital
b. Comparative method of merger and acquisition cases
(1) The data of the reference case must be true and reliable in order to reasonably determine the value; (2) The calculation caliber and method of relevant data should be consistent between the reference case and the target enterprise; (3) Due to the existence of differences, the value ratio should be used as rationally as possible according to the situation of the target enterprise; (4) The results should not be limited to one or several value ratio calculations, but the values obtained from different value ratios should be carefully analyzed to form a reasonable evaluation conclusion.
cRefer to the application of enterprise comparison method and merger and acquisition case comparison method (alternative indicators)
③The third category is the cost method, also known as the asset-based method. (replacement cost)
1. Determine the total cost required to rebuild or reacquire the measured asset under the current environment.
2. Conduct a comprehensive evaluation of depreciation factors such as economic depreciation, functional depreciation, and physical obsolescence depreciation of the measured assets, and make adjustments to the above costs based on this to obtain the fair value valuation of the measured items.
financial analysis
Overview
effect
①An important part of project decision-making analysis and evaluation. ②Important decision-making basis. ③The project or program plays an important role than the selection. ④ Cooperate with investment parties in negotiations and promote equal cooperation. ⑤ Financial viability analysis in financial analysis plays an important role in examining the financial sustainability of projects, especially non-operating projects.
content
①Select the analysis method; ②Identify the financial benefits and cost range (inflows and outflows throughout the project life cycle); ③Measure basic data and estimate financial benefits and costs; ④Measure basic data and estimate financial benefits and costs; ⑤Carry out break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis
step
in principle
① The principle of consistency in the calculation range of costs and benefits; ② The principle of comparison between the identification of costs and benefits; ③ The principle of combining dynamic analysis with static analysis, with dynamic analysis as the mainstay; ④ The sound principle of determining basic data
Price and selection principles
Factors affecting price changes
① Relative price change factors; ② Absolute price change factors
Three types of prices involved in financial analysis and their relationships
Base price: expressed at the base year price level, without taking into account subsequent price changes.
Current Price: The current market price at any time. It includes the impact of relative price changes and absolute price changes.
Real price is expressed based on the base year price level and only reflects the price affected by relative price changes.
After deducting the effects of inflation
Price principle
① Financial analysis should use forecast prices; ② Cash flow analysis should in principle use the real price system; ③ Solvency analysis and financial viability analysis should in principle use the current price system; ④ Financial analysis should use a simplification of the price system
tax estimate
VAT
Tax payable = current output tax – current input tax – (deductible)
Output tax
If the current output tax is less than the current input tax and is insufficient for deduction, the shortfall can be carried forward to the next period for further deduction. Output tax = sales × tax rate
Input tax
=variable cost*tax rate
= (outsourced raw material cost + outsourced auxiliary material cost + outsourced fuel cost + outsourced power cost) × VAT rate
Variable cost = purchased raw materials, purchased fuel and power (piece wages and welfare fees)
sale tax
my country imposes consumption tax on some goods
land value added tax
Land value-added tax is a tax levied on the value-added amount obtained from the transfer of real estate.
Resource tax
A tax levied by the state on units and individuals that mine specific mineral products or produce salt.
corporate income tax
During project evaluation, attention should be paid to correctly calculating taxable income according to the requirements of relevant tax laws for pre-income tax deductions, and using appropriate tax rates to calculate corporate income tax. At the same time, attention should be paid to the correct use of relevant income tax preferential policies and explanations.
Corporate income tax = (total annual profit - annual deficit to be made up) * income tax rate
Urban maintenance and construction tax, education Education fee surcharge, local education additional
In urban areas, counties or towns, or not in urban areas, counties or towns, the tax rates are 7%, 5% or 1% respectively.
The education surcharge is 3%, which is paid simultaneously with value-added tax and consumption tax.
The local education surcharge standard is unified to 2% of the actual value-added tax and consumption tax paid by entities and individuals (including foreign-invested enterprises, foreign enterprises and foreign individuals).
tariff
Tariffs are taxes that are taxable on imported and exported taxable goods. Tariffs on imported equipment and materials are reflected in investment estimates, while tariffs on imported raw materials are reflected in costs.
Characteristics of Cash Flow Analysis for Renovation and Expansion Projects
Characteristics of renovation and expansion projects
① Utilize the original assets and resources, mobilize the stock in increments, and achieve greater benefits with smaller new investments;
② Without renovation and expansion, the original conditions will also change;
③Construction and production may be carried out simultaneously during the construction period;
④ It is necessary to examine not only the benefits brought by the project to the enterprise, but also the overall financial status of the enterprise;
⑤The benefits and costs of the project may be reflected in different aspects;
⑥ The costs of renovation and expansion projects are diverse, including not only new investment and new costs, but also may include production shutdown losses due to transformation and the costs of dismantling and relocating some original assets, etc.
Five sets of data on benefits and costs
“as is” data
It reflects the benefits and costs at the starting point of project implementation and is a single status value. The time point for current status data should be set at the beginning of the construction period.
"No project" data
When the project is not implemented, the changing trends of benefits and costs during the calculation period will be considered based on the current status.
"Project" data
It refers to the total benefit and cost data during the calculation period after the implementation of the project, which is a numerical sequence.
Add new data
It is the change amount of "existing projects" relative to the "current situation", that is, the difference between the existing project benefit and cost data and the current situation data. (Before and after comparison)
incremental data
It is the difference between the benefit and cost data of "with projects" and the benefit and cost data of "without projects". (With or without comparison)
Calculation period
The calculation scope and calculation period of benefits and costs for "with projects" and "without projects" should be consistent. In order to keep the calculation period consistent, the calculation period of "no projects" should be adjusted based on the calculation period of "with projects" (referring to the newly added assets).
Sunk costs
It refers to expenses that have occurred in the past and cannot be considered in current decisions.
opportunity cost
Once an enterprise's assets are used for a project, the potential income that may have been brought about by other opportunities is lost. This lost income is the opportunity cost of the asset being used for the project. When necessary, the opportunity cost should be considered in the financial analysis, often by calculating the opportunity cost as the benefit without the project.
Characteristics of Profitability Analysis of Renovation and Expansion Projects
① Focus on incremental analysis
It is emphasized that the incremental cash flow analysis is performed based on the incremental data obtained by comparing the projects with and without projects, and the results of the incremental cash flow analysis are used as the main basis for judging the profitability of the project.
②Supplemented by total analysis
When necessary, for the profitability analysis of existing legal person reconstruction and expansion projects, a cash flow statement for "projects" can be prepared based on the benefit and cost data of the "projects" for total profitability analysis, and relevant indicators can be calculated based on the values in this table. The purpose is to examine the overall effect after project construction, which can be used as an auxiliary decision-making basis.
③Renovation and expansion project profitability analysis report
The main reports for profitability analysis of reconstruction and expansion projects include project investment cash flow statement (incremental) and income statement (with project).
④ Simplification of incremental analysis of profitability of reconstruction and expansion projects
The so-called simplified incremental analysis is based on the principle of "with or without comparison" to directly determine the incremental data for report preparation and perform incremental analysis.
There are three possible tax scenarios involved in selling old assets:
① When the sales price of an old asset is higher than the depreciated book value of the asset, the difference between the sale price of the old asset and its depreciated book value is taxable income and is taxed at the income tax rate;
② The sales price of the old asset is equal to the depreciated book value of the asset. At this time, the sale of the asset does not bring any gain or loss, and there is no need to consider tax issues;
③ The sales price of the old asset is lower than the depreciated book value of the asset. The difference between the sale price of the old asset and its depreciated book value is a taxable loss, which can be used to offset taxable income and thereby reduce tax payments.
Cash flow estimates
Determination of calculation period
Building period
The construction period used for evaluation refers to the time required from the formal investment of project funds until the project is completed and put into production.
Operation period
The operation period for evaluation should be comprehensively determined based on a variety of factors, including industry characteristics and the economic life of major devices (or equipment).
investment estimate form
See Chapter 6
Asset Depreciation and Amortization 1. Intangible assets (original value, annual amortization, net value, residual value recovery) 2. Fixed assets (original value, annual depreciation, net value, residual value recovery) 3. Other assets 4. Long-term deferred expenses (omitted)
Amortization of intangible assets
Refers to identifiable monetary assets without physical form that are owned or held by an enterprise, with average amortization and no residual value.
Fixed asset depreciation
Original value of fixed assets
=Project expenses, the part of other project construction expenses that can be converted into fixed assets, reserve expenses, interest during the construction period-deductible input tax on fixed assets
Engineering cost = construction project fee, installation project fee, equipment purchase fee
The part of other project construction costs that can be converted into fixed assets = other project construction costs - intangible asset costs - other assets or deferred asset costs
annual depreciation
①average method
=original value of fixed assets*annual depreciation rate
=Original value of fixed assets*(1-Estimated net residual value rate)/Depreciation life*100%
= (Original value of fixed assets - Net value of fixed assets) / Depreciation life
②Workload method
Calculate depreciation based on driving mileage: depreciation amount per unit mileage = original value of fixed assets × (1 - estimated net residual value rate) / total driving mileage, annual depreciation amount = depreciation amount per unit mileage × annual driving mileage
Calculate depreciation based on working hours: depreciation amount per working hour = original value of fixed assets × (1 - estimated net residual value rate) / total working hours, annual depreciation amount = depreciation amount per working hour × annual working hours
③Double declining balance method
Annual depreciation rate = 2/depreciation period × 100%
Annual depreciation amount = net fixed asset value at the beginning of the year (different every year) × annual depreciation rate
The net fixed asset value minus the net residual value should be amortized evenly within two years before the depreciation period expires.
④Sum of years’ digits method
Annual depreciation rate = reciprocal number of annual numbers/sum of annual numbers × 100%
Annual depreciation amount = (original value of fixed assets – estimated net residual value) × annual depreciation rate
Comparison of several depreciation methods
Recovery of residual value of fixed assets = original value of fixed assets - annual depreciation amount * service life (average method)
operating income
meaning
It refers to the income obtained from product sales (or provision of services) assuming that all products are sold that year, which is the main body of the project's financial benefits.
Steps: ① Reasonably determine the operational compliance; ② Reasonably determine the prices of products and services; ③ Estimate or reasonably convert multiple products separately; ④ Prepare operating income estimation table
Operating income = production volume (or sales quantity) × sales price.
Operating income in a certain year = Operating income under 100% load × Load rate in a certain year.
Costs and Fees (total cost schedule) 1. Operating costs 2. Depreciation and amortization 3. Financial expenses (interest expenses) 4. Total total costs and expenses
Divided into unit product cost and total cost according to calculation scope
Divided into fixed costs and variable costs according to the relationship between cost and output
According to accounting requirements, it is divided into production costs (or manufacturing costs) and period expenses.
total cost
①Production cost period cost F=F1 F2
F1 production costs
= direct material costs, direct fuel and power costs, direct wages and salaries, other direct stated manufacturing costs
F2 period fee
=Administrative expenses, financial expenses, operating expenses. Generally speaking, financial expenses are mainly interest expenses.
②Production factor estimation method F=Fa Fb……Fn
= (expenses for purchased raw materials, fuel and power, wages or salaries, repair expenses, other expenses), depreciation expenses, amortization expenses, interest expenses
=Operating costs, depreciation, amortization, interest expenses
Operating costs = purchased raw materials, fuel and power costs, wages or salaries, repair costs, other costs
Repair cost = original value of fixed assets (deducting interest during the construction period) * rate
Profit and loss (profit and income tax)
Cost expenses = operating costs, amortization, depreciation, interest expenses
Total profit = operating income - operating costs - taxes and surcharges
Gross profit = total profit/operating income
Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) = operating income - (operating cost amortization) - taxes and surcharges
=Total profit Total interest paid
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) = operating income - operating costs - taxes and surcharges
Corporate income tax = (total annual profit - annual deficit to be made up) * income tax rate
Profit after tax = total profit - corporate income tax
Net profit = profit after tax/operating income
Financial Profitability Analysis
Pre-financing analysis
Project investment cash flow analysis
It examines the rationality of the project plan design from the perspective of the total profitability of the project investment.
Post-financing analysis
Project capital cash flow analysis
Reflects the profitability level of the project from the overall perspective of project equity investors. Its analysis indicators are an important basis for comparing and choosing financing options.
Cash flow analysis of investing parties
Determine the cash inflow and cash outflow according to the specific situation of the project and the cash flow situation of the investing parties, and calculate the financial internal rate of return indicators of the investing parties. The expression and calculation method are the same as the financial internal rate of return of the project investment, but the table and net rate are based on The connotations of cash flows are different, and the benchmark parameters for judgment are different.
cash flow statement
The original value involved in the amortization of investment cash income tax is different from the original value involved in the amortization of capital income tax, so it is not a simple matter of interest reduction.
Selection of benchmark parameters for cash flow analysis
①The investment income must be greater than the opportunity cost of capital, otherwise the investment will have no comparative value. Therefore, the opportunity cost of capital is usually used as the basis for determining benchmark parameters.
②The benchmark parameter of the financial internal rate of return of project capital should be the lowest acceptable rate of return for the entire project capital owner. You can determine it yourself, or you can determine it by referring to the return on net assets of similar projects (enterprises).
static
return on investment
Investment return rate refers to the ratio of the annual net income or average annual net income of the investment plan in a normal year after reaching the designed production capacity to the total investment of the plan.
total investment return ROI
The total investment rate of return refers to the ratio of the annual profit before interest and taxes or the average annual profit before interest and taxes in a normal production year after the investment plan reaches the design production capacity to the total investment of the plan. It evaluates the profitability of the total investment of the plan from a pre-financing perspective. static indicator.
Total investment return ROI = annual profit before interest and tax or average annual profit before interest and tax EBIT/total investment, profit before interest and tax = total profit + current accrued interest
Compare the calculated total investment rate of return ROI with the determined benchmark total investment rate of return, ≥ economically acceptable, < economically unacceptable
Capital net profit margin ROE
The net capital profit rate refers to the ratio of the annual net profit or average annual net profit in a normal production year after the investment plan reaches the designed production capacity to the capital investment of the plan. It evaluates the profitability of the capital investment of the plan from a post-financing perspective. static indicator.
Annual net profit = total annual profit – annual income tax expense
Compare the calculated net capital profit rate ROE with the determined benchmark net capital profit rate, ≥ economically acceptable, < economically unacceptable
static payback period
The static investment payback period refers to the time required to recover the total investment with the net income of the program without considering the time value of funds. Cumulative cash inflows equal cumulative cash outflows
The calculated static investment payback period Pt and the determined benchmark investment payback period, ≤ acceptable, > unacceptable
Advantages: The static investment payback period indicator is easy to understand and simple to calculate. This indicator reflects the turnover speed of capital to a certain extent. The faster the capital turnover speed, the shorter the payback period and the smaller the risk. For those projects that are technically updated rapidly, Or projects where funds are quite short, or projects where the future situation is difficult to predict and investors are particularly concerned about fund compensation, it is appropriate to use the investment payback period indicator for analysis;
Disadvantages: However, the static investment payback period indicator only considers the economic effect before investment recovery, and does not fully consider the cash flow of the entire calculation period of the plan. Moreover, this indicator does not consider the time value of funds, so it can only be used as an auxiliary evaluation indicator, or combined with other indicators. Combined application of evaluation methods.
Solvency analysis
①Loan principal and interest payment schedule
[Construction Period] Loan and interest payment
Source of capital
fund application
Used for construction investment, working capital, and interest during the construction period
Interest during construction period
Loans at the beginning of the period, borrowings for the current period, interest repayment, and loan balance at the end of the period
Different interest calculation methods need to be converted into annual effective interest rates according to the interest calculation cycle ieff= (1 i/n)^n-1
①Occurs at the beginning of each year during the construction period, and interest is paid at the end of each year during the construction period, L=∑Principal at the beginning of each year × interest rate
② Occurs at the beginning of each year during the construction period, and no interest is paid during the construction period, L = ∑ (principal at the beginning of each year + interest from previous years) × interest rate
③Equilibrium occurs in each year of the construction period, and interest is paid at the end of each year during the construction period, L=∑ (principal at the beginning of each year + borrowing for the year/2) × interest rate
③ The construction period occurs evenly in each year, and no interest is paid during the construction period, L = ∑ (principal at the beginning of each year + interest from previous years + current year’s borrowing/2) × interest rate
[Operation period] Construction investment borrowing interest (paid during the operation period)
① Repay principal and interest in equal amounts (equal principal and interest, principal and interest are equal amounts)
Among them, the annual interest payment = the loan balance at the beginning of the year * annual interest rate
Among them, the annual principal repayment = A-annual interest payment
② Repay the principal in equal amounts, and the interest will be paid as usual (equal amounts of principal, the principal is the same amount)
Annual principal repayment = total principal and interest repayment/repayment period
Annual interest payment = loan balance at the beginning of the year * annual interest rate
③Other ways of repaying principal and interest
[Operation Period] Interest on working capital borrowings (borrowed in the current year and paid back in the same year)
Interest rate on working capital loans = Balance of working capital borrowings at the beginning of the year × Corresponding annual interest rate on borrowings
②Financial plan cash flow statement
③Balance sheet
analyze
Interest reserve ratio (calculated annually)
The ratio of the profit before interest and tax during the loan repayment period to the interest payable in the current year reflects the degree of guarantee of the project's repayment of debt interest from the perspective of the adequacy of the source of interest payment funds.
Interest coverage ratio = Profit before interest and tax (EBIT)/Amount of interest payable
And should be greater than 1, generally not less than 2
Debt service reserve ratio (by year)
Reflects the project's ability to repay debt principal and interest from the perspective of the adequacy of debt repayment funding sources.
= (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization EBITDA - income tax)/amount of principal and interest repayable
The debt service reserve ratio represents the guaranteed ratio for repaying the principal and interest of the debt. It should be at least greater than 1, and generally should not be less than 1.3, and is determined based on the requirements of creditors;
Assets and liabilities (Also required for renovation and expansion)
It refers to the ratio of a company's total liabilities to its total assets at a certain point in time.
Asset-liability ratio = (total liabilities/total assets) × 100%
Current ratio (when rebuilding or expanding)
Current ratio = current assets/current liabilities
Quick ratio (when rebuilding and expanding)
Quick ratio = Quick assets/Current liabilities = (Current assets - Survival)/Current liabilities
The higher the indicator, the stronger the ability to repay current liabilities. The internationally recognized standard ratio is 2.0.
financial viability
analyze
Analyze whether there is sufficient net cash flow to maintain normal operations.
It is a necessary condition for financial sustainability that the accumulated surplus funds in each year do not have a negative value.
uncertainty analysis (The process of analyzing the uncertainty factors that affect the project, measuring the impact of their increases or decreases on project benefits, and identifying the most important sensitive factors and their critical points)
sensitivity analysis (Applicable to financial analysis and economic analysis)
Function and content
Examine the impact of various uncertain factors involved in the project on the economic evaluation indicators of the basic project plan, identify sensitive factors, estimate the sensitivity of project benefits to them, and roughly predict the risks that the project may bear, laying the foundation for further risk analysis.
Sensitivity analysis includes single-factor sensitivity analysis and multi-factor sensitivity analysis.
Sensitivity analysis methods are equally applicable to project financial analysis and economic analysis.
Analysis steps
Select analysis indicator Y
The required analysis indicator in the sensitivity analysis of financial analysis is the financial internal rate of return of project investment, and the required analysis indicator in the economic analysis is the economic net present value or the economic internal rate of return. According to the actual situation of the project, other evaluation indicators such as investment payback period can also be selected. If necessary, sensitivity analysis can be performed on two or more indicators at the same time.
Select uncertainty factor X
Factors that usually require sensitivity analysis include construction investment, output prices, main input prices or variable costs, operating loads, construction period, and foreign exchange rates. Other factors may also be selected based on the specific circumstances of the project.
Determine the degree of change in uncertainties
Generally, the percentage change of uncertain factors is selected. For the needs of drawing, ±5%, ±10%, ±15%, ±20%, etc. can be selected respectively.
Calculate sensitivity analysis metrics
sensitivity coefficient
E=(△Y/Y)/(△X/X) - that is: the rate of change of the effect divided by the rate of change of the factor
Critical point F
The critical point refers to the extreme change of uncertain factors, that is, the critical value at which the change of uncertain factors changes the project from feasible to unfeasible.
For the same investment project, as the set benchmark rate of return increases, the critical point will become lower (that is, the limit change of the uncertainty represented by the critical point becomes smaller) (ic-i project)/i project
Under a certain benchmark rate of return, the lower the critical point, the greater the impact of this factor on the project benefit index, and the more sensitive the project is to this factor.
Expression of sensitivity analysis results
Prepare sensitivity analysis table
Plot sensitivity analysis
The greater the absoluteness of the slope, the greater the E elastic coefficient
Analyze sensitivity analysis results
① Combine the calculation results of sensitivity coefficients and critical points, sort by the sensitivity of the uncertain factors, and find out which factors are more sensitive uncertain factors. The sensitivity coefficients and critical points can be known through visual inspection or observation. Those with higher sensitivity coefficients or lower critical points are more sensitive factors.
② Qualitatively analyze the possibility of changes in uncertain factors represented by critical points. Based on the analysis and research in the previous chapters of the feasibility study report, combined with experience, we make judgments to explain whether a certain uncertain factor under investigation is likely to change as represented by the critical point, and make a rough estimate of the risk.
③ Summarize the conclusions of the sensitivity analysis, point out the most sensitive key factor or factors, and roughly predict the possible risks of the project.
insufficient
Although sensitivity analysis can identify the uncertain factors that the project analysis indicators are sensitive to and estimate their impact on the project analysis indicators, it cannot know how likely these impacts are to occur. This is the biggest problem of sensitivity analysis. shortcomings.
Break-even analysis (Applies to financial analysis only)
concept
Under certain market and management conditions, it is a method to study and analyze the balance relationship between costs and income by finding the break-even point based on the cost and income data when the design production capacity is reached.
There will be a turning point between a company's profits and losses, called the break-even point (BEP).
Break-even analysis can be divided into linear break-even analysis and non-linear break-even analysis. Generally, only linear break-even analysis is performed in the decision-making analysis and evaluation of investment projects.
effect
Break-even analysis can be used to find the break-even point and examine the enterprise's (or project's) adaptability and risk resistance to changes in output (sales) caused by the market.
The lower the break-even point expressed in terms of output and production capacity utilization, the greater the company's ability to adapt to changes in market demand and the stronger its ability to resist risks. The lower the break-even point represented by product selling price, the greater the company's ability to adapt to market price declines and the stronger its ability to resist risks.
calculate
To conduct linear break-even analysis, it is assumed that the enterprise (or project) meets the following four conditions:
Output equals sales, that is, all products produced in the year (deducting the amount for own use) are sold in the same year. →Not unsaleable
As the output changes, the unit variable cost remains unchanged, that is, the total cost is a linear function of output. →F total cost = F fixed cost P variable cost unit price * Q output
As output changes, product selling price remains unchanged, that is, sales revenue is a linear function of sales volume. →F revenue=P sales unit price*Q output
Only a single product is produced, or multiple products are produced, but it can be converted into a single product calculation, that is, the changes in load rates of different products are consistent.
formula calculation method
Profit before tax = F revenue – F total costs – F taxes and surcharges
0=P pin*Q-F solid-P change*Q-t unit tax attached*Q
①BEP(Q)=Fsolid/(P pin-P change-t unit tax attached)
②BEP(P pin)=F solid/Q P variable t unit tax attached
③BEP (production capacity utilization rate Q/Q')=F solid/(P sales Q'-P change Q'-t unit tax attached Q')=F solid/(annual sales revenue-annual variable cost-annual tax and additional)*100%
Graphical method
Important points to note
The break-even point should be calculated based on the data in the year when the project reaches production, and cannot be calculated based on the average value during the calculation period.
When the values for each year in the calculation period are different, it is best to calculate separately according to the repayment period and the year after the loan is repaid.
Economic Analysis
Overview
meaning
Examine the benefits and costs of the project from the perspective of the country as a whole. (Use economic parameters such as shadow prices, shadow wages, shadow exchange rates, and social discount rates to calculate and analyze the net benefits the project brings to the national economy)
main effect
Correctly reflect the net contribution of the project to social welfare and evaluate the economic rationality of the project;
Reasonably reflect the allocation efficiency of social resources and provide an important basis for government approval or approval of projects;
Reasonable comparison, selection and optimization of plans provide the basis for formulating financial plans for basic public welfare projects with poor financial returns.
basic method
Adopt a "with or without comparison" method to identify the benefits and costs of the project;
Take economic prices (or calculated prices), usually replaced by shadow prices, to estimate various benefits and costs;
Use cost-benefit analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis methods to seek to obtain the maximum output (benefit, effect) with the minimum input (cost).
Scope of application
Industry projects where the market regulates itself generally do not require economic analysis;
Projects where market allocation of resources fails requires economic analysis.
Projects with natural monopoly characteristics;
Produce projects with the characteristics of public goods;
Projects with significant external effects, such as projects that have a large impact on the environment, public interests, etc.;
State-controlled strategic resource development and projects related to national economic security;
Other government-regulated projects.
Similarities, Differences and Connections between Economic Analysis and Financial Analysis
the difference
①The angle and starting point of analysis are different.
Financial analysis analyzes financial benefits and sustainability from the level of the project's financial entities and investors; economic analysis analyzes and evaluates the project's net contribution to society from the perspective of the entire society.
②The meaning and scope of benefit expenses are different
Financial analysis only calculates the direct benefits and costs of the project; economic analysis considers not only direct benefits and costs, but also indirect benefits and costs.
③The price systems used are different
Financial analysis uses forecasted financial revenue and expenditure prices; economic analysis uses shadow prices.
④The content of analysis is different
Financial analysis must conduct profitability analysis, solvency analysis, and financial viability analysis; economic analysis only conducts profitability analysis, that is, economic efficiency analysis.
⑤The benchmark parameters are different.
The most important parameter of financial analysis is the financial benchmark rate of return, and the benchmark parameter of economic analysis is the social discount rate.
⑥The calculation period may be different
The calculation period for economic analysis may be longer than the calculation period for financial analysis.
same
① All use the theoretical method of comparing benefits and costs;
② Follow the "with or without comparison" principle of benefit and cost identification;
③ Based on the principle of time value of funds, conduct dynamic analysis and calculate indicators such as internal rate of return and net present value.
Identification of economic benefits and costs
Require
Comprehensive identification, presence or absence of comparison, consistent caliber, reasonable span, effective identification, and reasonable boundaries
Estimation principles
Willingness to pay, willingness to be compensated, opportunity cost, actual value
identify
direct benefit
It refers to the economic benefits brought by the project output (including products and services) and calculated within the scope of the project, which are reflected in the benefits of producers and consumers. It is generally expressed in the material products, science and technology and culture provided by the project for social production. results and benefits generated by a wide variety of services.
For some industry projects whose goal is to provide social services, the economic benefits they generate have nothing to do with the operating income described in the financial analysis.
direct costs
It refers to the economic expenses generated by the use of inputs in the project and calculated within the scope of the project. It generally represents the consumption of social resources caused by various materials, labor, funds, technology and natural resources invested in the project.
Transfer payments (domestic bank interest, taxes payable, government subsidies), resource tax retention
indirect benefit
It refers to the benefits caused by the project but not reflected in the direct benefits. Mainly include: labor training effect, technology diffusion effect, environmental improvement effect, upstream and downstream enterprise adjacent effect, and multiplier effect.
Extra charges
It refers to the expenses caused by the project but not reflected in the direct expenses of the project. Generally reflected in aspects that are detrimental to the environment and ecology.
Input-output price confirmed
(1) The meaning of input-output economic price
The economic price of input and output is a calculation price specially used for project economic analysis, often called shadow price, which reflects the resource scarcity and real economic value of project input and output, and reflects the market supply and demand relationship and the requirements for reasonable allocation of resources.
(2) Shadow prices of goods whose prices are regulated by the government
①Cost decomposition method
②Willingness to Pay Method
③Opportunity cost method
(3) Shadow prices of special inputs
①Estimation of human capital and life value
For education projects, the effect can be expressed as added value to human capital. For example, the difference in salary before income tax
For health care programs, effectiveness is often expressed as the value of reducing death and illness.
For health care projects, when their effects are expressed in terms of their impact on improving people's health, the economic value is calculated by comprehensively considering the price people are willing to pay to avoid diseases and achieve a healthy life.
②Estimation of time saving value
The value of travel time savings: Calculate the economic value of people’s travel time savings and cargo delivery time savings based on the specific characteristics of the project.
Value of time savings in goods: The amount of money that the beneficiary of such savings is willing to pay to obtain such savings
③Estimation of environmental value
The effect of an environmental engineering project is expressed as its contribution to the improvement of environmental quality, and corresponding environmental value assessment methods can be used to estimate its economic value.
Basic methods of economic analysis
Calculation indicators
Economic Net Present Value (ENPV)
Refers to using the social discount rate to convert the economic net benefit flow in each year during the project calculation period to the sum of the present value at the beginning of the project construction period.
ENPV>0, from the economic benefit point of view, the project is feasible.
Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR)
Refers to the discount rate when the cumulative present value of the project’s net economic benefit flow in each year during the calculation period is equal to zero.
When the project's economic internal rate of return ≥ the social discount rate, it indicates that the project's net contribution to the social economy has reached or exceeded the efficiency level required by the social discount rate.
Economic cost benefit analysis report
A calculation method (no financial analysis, economic analysis directly)
(1) Identify (including quantify) economic benefits and economic costs, including direct benefits, direct costs and indirect benefits, indirect costs
(2) Analyze and determine the shadow prices of various inputs and outputs, and estimate the benefits and input costs of each output
(3) Based on the estimated benefit flow and cost flow, prepare a project investment economic cost benefit flow statement
(4) For external effects that can be monetarily quantified, as much as possible, and for those that are difficult to quantify, provide a qualitative description
① The direct benefit of transportation projects is reflected in the effect of time saving;
②The output effects of education projects, medical and health care projects, etc. are reflected in their impact on human capital, life extension or disease prevention;
③The direct benefits of water conservancy project projects include flood control benefits, sedimentation reduction benefits, and power generation benefits.
B adjustment calculation method (according to the financial analysis done, adjust to get the financial analysis)
Adjust content
- Transfer payments (domestic bank interest, taxes payable, government subsidies), resource tax retention
-Receivables, payables, advance receipts, prepayments and cash that do not belong to the consumption of social resources
-Follow the principle of real value, do not consider inflation, and exclude price increase reserve fees
Identify project externalities such as indirect benefits and overhead flows
Specific adjustments
①Adjust direct benefit flow
Most of the direct benefits of the project are operating income. If the output needs to use shadow prices, the shadow prices are used to calculate operating income.
Product shadow price
It has a greater impact on the market, using the social cost method, excluding tax unit price - the average value before and after market changes
It has little impact on the market, uses the willingness-to-pay method, and the unit price includes tax.
②Adjust construction investment
Exclude price increase reserve fees from expense flow
Depending on the circumstances, labor may be expensed on a shadow wage basis
If there is an import exchange rate, it should be converted according to the shadow exchange rate and the import duties and import value-added tax as transfer payments should be submitted.
The following is omitted
③Adjust operating expenses
Shadow price calculation
④Adjust working capital
Generally equal to inventory
⑤The residual value of recovered assets generally does not need to be adjusted
Project cost effectiveness analysis
It is an analytical method to judge the effectiveness of project costs and the economic rationality of the project by comparing the expected effects of the project with the costs paid.
index
Effect-to-cost ratio - that is, the effect achieved per unit cost
Cost-effectiveness ratio—that is, the cost per unit effect
basic method
①Minimum cost method
When the project effects are the same, choose the one with the smallest cost among the possible options.
②Maximum effect method
When the cost is fixed, choose the solution that maximizes the effect.
③Incremental analysis method
When the effects and costs of alternatives are not fixed and the difference is large, the cost difference and effect difference between the two alternatives should be compared to analyze whether the incremental cost to obtain the incremental effect is worthwhile.
Mutually exclusive solution comparison and selection steps
① Arrange the plan costs from small to large
② Start comparing the two options with the smallest cost, and select the winning option through incremental analysis;
③ Carry out incremental analysis between the winning plan and the next immediately adjacent plan, and select a new winning plan;
④ Repeat the third step until the last plan is reached, and the finally selected advantageous plan is the optimal plan.
Sensitivity analysis (omitted) (Applicable to financial analysis and economic analysis)