An overview of the derived Delphi method

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Edited at 2021-03-03 19:09:24

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An overview of the derived Delphi method

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An overview of the derived Delphi method

The derived Delphi method is a method used to predict and evaluate the development of events.

The method generates the final prediction through multiple real-time Delphi rounds by a panel of experts.

The main steps in deriving the Delphi method include problem definition, expert selection, Delphi round and final prediction result generation.

One of the advantages of this method is the ability to integrate the opinions and knowledge of multiple experts to improve the accuracy and reliability of forecasts.

The derived Delphi method can be applied in a variety of fields, such as risk assessment, strategic planning, and new technology development.

The method can also be used in management decisions to evaluate the effectiveness and impact of different options.

The implementation of the derived Delphi method requires attention to some key factors.

One of these is the correct selection and organization of the expert panel, ensuring that it has expertise and experience in the relevant field.

The number of experts should be appropriate to ensure meaningful and representative results.

Another key factor is clearly defining the questions and assessment metrics so that experts can understand and answer them correctly.

During the Delphi round, it is necessary to ensure that experts can fully communicate and discuss in order to share opinions and reach consensus.

In addition, it is important to regularly update and monitor the information and opinions of the expert group.

Ultimately, the forecasts generated should be accurate, reasonable, and reliable.

Example

Taking risk assessment as an example, the derived Delphi method can be used to predict the probability of occurrence and impact of potential risk events.

The first step is to clearly define the problem, such as "What are the risk events that may occur in a certain project?".

Under this question, a series of specific risk events can be defined, such as "equipment failure", "supply chain interruption" and "human error".

The second step is to select experts in relevant fields to participate in the evaluation.

These experts can come from the project team, industry organizations or research institutions in related fields.

The third step is to conduct multiple rounds of Delphi rounds to allow experts to gradually discuss and reach consensus.

In each round, experts can anonymously provide their opinions and assessments, which are discussed and adjusted through system aggregation and feedback.

Finally, the final risk assessment results are generated based on the integration and weighing of expert opinions.

These results can include the probability of occurrence of each risk event, the degree of impact, and the corresponding risk level and response measures.

The application of the derived Delphi method in risk assessment can provide decision-makers with a knowledge and understanding of potential risks and provide a basis for taking corresponding measures.

Example

In strategic planning, the derived Delphi method can be used to evaluate the effectiveness and potential impact of different strategic options.

First, define strategic planning questions, such as "What strategic options should be adopted to promote the company's development in the next five years?".

Next, select experts with relevant experience and knowledge to participate in the evaluation and forecasting of strategic options.

Experts can come from the company's internal executive team, business departments or market research institutions, etc.

During the Delphi round, experts can explore the pros, cons, and risks of different strategic options through multiple discussions and evaluations.

These rounds help experts gradually reach consensus and provide a comprehensive assessment of strategic planning.

Finally, the final strategic planning results are generated based on the integration and weighing of expert opinions.

These results can include the predicted effects of various strategic options, risk assessments and implementation recommendations.

The application of the derived Delphi method in strategic planning can help decision makers evaluate the risks and benefits of different options in order to make rational and feasible decisions.