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Application of Delphi method
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Edited at 2022-12-18 09:26:11
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- Outline
Application of Delphi method
Definition and background
The Delphi method is a method of decision-making and problem-solving through expert consultation and opinion collection.
The Delphi method has a wide range of applications, including prediction, planning, evaluation, decision-making and other fields.
process
Preparatory stage
Determine the problem and goals: Determine the problem to be solved and the goals expected to be achieved using the Delphi method.
Select a panel of experts: Choose the right experts to form the panel and make sure they have relevant experience and knowledge.
First round Delphi method
Anonymous surveys: Questionnaires are sent to experts asking them to provide opinions, suggestions or predictions on an issue.
Data collection and organization: Collect experts’ opinions and suggestions, organize and summarize them.
Second round Delphi method
Feedback survey results: Feed back the aggregated results of the first round of surveys to experts, allowing them to understand other experts’ perspectives and re-evaluate the issue.
Anonymous survey again: Experts issue questionnaires again and provide opinions and suggestions again.
Data collection and organization: Collect experts’ opinions and suggestions, organize and summarize them.
Follow-up Delphi method
Repeated cycles: If necessary, multiple rounds of the Delphi method can be conducted until a consensus or decision is reached.
Threshold determination: The threshold can be set. If a certain degree of consensus or convergence is reached, the Delphi method can be ended.
Advantages and Considerations
Advantage
Expert participation: The Delphi method makes full use of expert knowledge and experience to improve the quality of decision-making.
Anonymity: The exchange of opinions between experts is anonymous, avoiding the impact of personal opinions on others.
Flexibility: The Delphi process can be adapted and changed as needed.
Precautions
Expert selection: Selecting the right experts is key to the success of the Delphi method.
Data collation and analysis: The collected opinions need to be scientifically collated and analyzed in order to draw useful conclusions.
Diversity of opinions: Pay attention to the diversity of expert opinions and avoid focusing too much on one view or opinion.
Communication and communication: Effective communication and communication with experts in a timely and clear manner is an important part of the Delphi method.
Application examples
Technological innovation: The Delphi method can be used to evaluate the prospects and risks of technological innovation and obtain improvement suggestions from expert opinions.
Business strategy: The Delphi method can be used to develop a business strategy, gathering opinions and suggestions from experts in key areas.
Risk assessment: The Delphi method can be used for risk assessment to identify potential risks and countermeasures through expert prediction and evaluation.
Policy decision-making: The Delphi method can be used in policy decision-making to bring together expert opinions and suggestions to formulate and adjust policy directions.
Demand forecast: The Delphi method can be used to predict market demand and trends and provide guidance for enterprise product planning and development.
Summarize
The Delphi method is a method of decision-making and problem-solving through expert consultation and opinion collection.
It has a wide range of applications and has many advantages, but it needs to pay attention to issues such as expert selection, data analysis and effective communication.
The Delphi method has practical application value in the fields of technological innovation, business strategy, risk assessment, policy decision-making, and demand forecasting.