MindMap Gallery PMP-11 Project Risk Management
Chapter 11 Project Risk Management, PMP project management, PMBOK sixth edition knowledge structure organization, (PMBOK 6th Edition) Essential for studying and preparing for exams, 49 process tests, The ten knowledge areas of PMP, the input and output of the five process groups, PMP Exam—Knowledge Points Review (PMBOK Sixth Edition).
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This is a mind map about bacteria, and its main contents include: overview, morphology, types, structure, reproduction, distribution, application, and expansion. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
This is a mind map about plant asexual reproduction, and its main contents include: concept, spore reproduction, vegetative reproduction, tissue culture, and buds. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
This is a mind map about the reproductive development of animals, and its main contents include: insects, frogs, birds, sexual reproduction, and asexual reproduction. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
11 items Risk Management
Most risks are predictable and manageable
Four elements of risk
event, cause, consequence, possibility
Murphy's Law
If there are more than two choices, one of which will lead to an error, then someone must make that choice
The difference: problems will definitely happen, risks may not happen
Relationships: Risks become problems after they occur
Risks & Issues: Scope, Quality, Cost, Schedule, Resources. Project monitoring is about risks and issues. Problems are solved through changes, changes introduce new risks
11.1 planning risk management
The process of defining how project risk management activities will be implemented
output
risk management plan
Project risk sources (risk category)
internal risk
technology risk
Requirements definition, estimates, assumptions and constraints, technical process
organizational risk
Manage risk
Provide resources and organize communication
external risks
market risk
exchange rates, competition, regulation
regulatory risk
law
natural risks
environment/weather
Methodology, roles and responsibilities, funding, timing
Stakeholder risk appetite, probability and impact matrix
Risk threshold <= Risk preference <= Risk tolerance
Tools & Techniques
Expert judgment, data analysis, meetings
11.2 Identify risks
Identify individual project risks and focus on changes in overall project risks (overall risks are identified in the project charter)
Encourage all project stakeholders to identify risks
Key Player: Project Manager. Team Members, Risk Professionals, Customers, End Users, Operations Managers
Tools & Techniques
data analysis
Swot analysis
Conduct a one-by-one examination of the project's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to identify risks
File analysis
Root Cause Analysis
Dig out various possible causes of a problem and develop preventive measures
Assumptions and constraints analysis
data collection
brainstorming, interviews
Checklist
Such as: industry standards
output
risk register
List of identified risks
potential risk holders
Initial response measures
Content: number, potential risk holder, name, risk description, preliminary response measures
risk report
11.3 Conduct qualitative risk analysis
Conduct subjective qualitative analysis of identified individual project risks, assess their likelihood, consequences, and rank them
Designate a risk owner for each individual risk
Tools & Techniques
data collection
Interview
Create an interview environment of trust and confidentiality and encourage honest and unbiased opinions from the other party
data analysis
Risk probability and impact assessment
· Risk data quality assessment · Manageability · Controllability · Detectability · Connectivity · Strategic influence · Closeness
urgency
The time period during which response measures are taken to address the risk. Short time indicates high urgency.
Proximity
How long does it take for a risk to impact project objectives. Short time indicates high proximity.
latent
The likely time period between the occurrence of a risk and the manifestation of its effects. A short time indicates a short incubation period.
Data performance
Hierarchy chart/three-dimensional bubble chart
Graphics that classify risk using more than two parameters
Probability and Impact Matrix
A table that maps the probability of each risk occurring to the impact on the project objectives if it occurs.
Risk classification
Helps focus attention and energy on areas of greatest risk exposure and develop common risk responses for a set of related risks
Known - known risks
direct cost
Known-Unknown Risks
contingency reserve
In the cost baseline, the project manager can directly use
Unknown - unknown risk
management reserve
Once approved by management, it will be added to the contingency reserve. resulting in cost basis changes
Meeting
risk seminar
11.4 Conduct quantitative risk analysis
With respect to other sources of risk and uncertainty identified for individual projects, The process of quantitatively analyzing the impact on the overall project goals
Conduct objective quantitative analysis of quantifiable individual project risks, Quantify them and determine the contingency reserves required for the entire project
Predict risk development trends and put forward some risk response suggestions
Tools & Techniques
data collection
Interview
data analysis
simulation
Monte Carlo analysis is commonly used to simulate the impact of individual risks and evaluate the impact on the overall project.
sensitivity analysis
Used to determine the impact of a unit change in a certain variable on project results. , and sorted in descending order of relevance, focusing on the most sensitive variables
The results of sensitivity analysis are often represented by a tornado diagram
Decision tree analysis
Calculate the expected monetary value of alternatives and choose the best one
Expected Monetary Value emv = Probability * (Revenue - Cost)
influence diagram
Graphical aids to decision making under uncertainty
Represents the causal relationship between variables and results, the temporal sequence of events
How uncertainty manifests
Build quantitative risk analysis models that reflect individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty
11.5 Plan risk responses
risk response plan, The consent of all relevant parties should be obtained, and a risk owner will be specifically responsible for
emergency plan
A risk contingency plan formulated in advance is the master contingency plan for risks
Bounce back plan
backup contingency plans for risks, Enabled when master contingency plan does not work
contingency measures
Emergency measures that were not originally planned
secondary risk
New risks directly resulting from the implementation of risk response measures
residual risk
Risks that remain after predetermined countermeasures have been taken
Tools & Techniques
Threat response strategy
Report
Exceeds the authority of the project manager
Once a threat is reported, there will be no further oversight by the project team
avoid
Change plans to complete elimination of threats, such as reducing scope, canceling work, extending schedule
transfer
Transfer the risk impact and response responsibilities to a third party and pay the risk fees. For example: insurance, guarantee, guarantee, contract
alleviate
Reduce the probability and impact of threats, such as adopting simpler processes; Choose more reliable suppliers; conduct more tests; draw prototypes;
accept
Low-priority threats, acknowledge the existence of threats, and continue to promote project progress according to the current situation
A common active acceptance strategy is to establish an emergency reserve; a passive acceptance strategy is to not proactively take measures. Just review the threats regularly
Opportunity coping strategies
Report
Opportunities are usually escalated to the level that will be affected by the opportunity
open up
Make sure opportunities arise and seize them. For example: allocate the most capable resources to the project to shorten the construction period; Adopt technological upgrades to reduce costs; add high-yield jobs to improve efficiency; Negotiate modifications to risk thresholds to include opportunities; introduce high-end talent and technology
share
Assign responsibilities to capable third parties, for example: establishing partnerships, collaborative teams
improve
Increase the probability and impact of an opportunity, e.g. adding resources to complete an activity sooner
accept
Acknowledges the existence of opportunities but does not take proactive measures, suitable for low-priority opportunities
Overall project risk response strategy
circumvent, exploit, transfer or share, alleviate or improve, accept
11.6 Implement risk responses
11.7 Oversight risk
Tools & Techniques
risk reassessment risk review
Reassess current risks and close out-of-date risks. Risk reviews should be carried out regularly
risk audit
Check whether the corresponding measures are effective
Check whether the risk management process is effective
Usually done by someone outside the team
Reserve analysis
Used to compare whether the remaining contingency reserve matches the remaining risk amount
Technical performance analysis
Predict the extent to which the project scope meets customer requirements and expose technical risks that the project may face as early as possible