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supply chain management planning
This is a mind map about supply chain management planning
Edited at 2021-11-07 13:06:57
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supply chain management planning
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supply chain management planning
Chapter 1 Forecasting and Demand Planning
Forecasting and Demand Overview
need
Definition: The quantity of goods that consumers are willing and able to purchase at a given price level in a certain period of time Category: 1. Independent demand (customer demand) 2. Related demand (demand for procurement or production to achieve customer demand)
Features: 1, static and dynamic 2, SCRT (seasonality, cyclicality, random variation, trend) 3, compound type
Elasticity of demand: The proportional relationship between the dependent variable goods and services and an independent variable factor that affects demand. 1. Price elasticity (price) 2. Income elasticity (demand side income level) 3. Cross elasticity (price of complementary or substitute products)
predict
Definition: Make forward-looking judgments about the future and serve as the basis for business decisions. Mainly include: demand forecast, technology forecast, production capacity forecast, price forecast, policy-oriented forecast, economic trend forecast, consumption behavior model forecast, climate forecast
The time span of the forecast is divided into: long-term forecast (>=1 year, strategic business plan SBP), medium-term forecast (>=1 quarter, tactical plan PP), short-term forecast (<1 quarter, operational plan MPS)
Requirements Planning
In order to formulate multi-party demand planning/joint planning, enterprises must possess and develop: 1. Statistical forecasting capabilities 2. Multi-angle data analysis capabilities 3. Product life cycle planning capabilities 4. Promotional plans
Basics of Forecasting and Qualitative Forecasting Methods
Factors affecting forecasts
Macro: PESTLE (politics, economy, society, technology, legal norms, environment)
Product Portfolio (Boston Matrix) assists demand analysis
Meso-level: The specific industry and market segment environment in which the enterprise operates. Including industrial layout, industrial chain status and development, and competitive characteristics of market segments (five forces model)
microscopic
Internal strategy of the enterprise: cost leadership, differentiation, specialization
Business model: value proposition, target market, revenue sources, value chain, core competencies, sustainability
Leverage strengths and avoid weaknesses to improve competitive advantage: SWOT
Marketing strategy: 4P&4C
Product life cycle: product stages and demand forecasts for similar products at the same stage
Basics of statistical techniques
Reflecting the central tendency: arithmetic mean; geometric mean; harmonic mean
Range: reflects the variation and dispersion of a set of numbers, the maximum minus the minimum difference
Confidence level: characteristic data that reflects the credibility of the predicted data Confidence interval: The data is distributed in a certain interval under the premise of a certain confidence level.
Qualitative forecasting methods
Salesperson combination method: suitable for customers with highly personalized needs, influential salespersons, and low quantity.
Market research methods: on-site surveys, telephone interviews, emails, online
Management collective review method: top management, external partners. collective prediction
Delphi method: anonymous experts predict, use averaging, weighting, etc. to obtain data and reach a consensus
Quantitative forecasting method
time series forecasting method
moving average
quadratic moving average
First-order exponential smoothing forecasting method
Quadratic exponential smoothing Holt method & cubic exponential smoothing Winters method
Autoregressive moving average model
regression prediction method
linear regression
causal regression
least squares method
Validate predictions
Evaluate forecast error: Mean Absolute Percent Error MAPE
Predictive Performance Monitoring Tracking Signal
Demand Forecasting and Plan Management
CPFR: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment
Supply chain inventory management technology developed collaboratively between supply and demand parties
Chapter 2 Supply Plan
Supply planning overview
Classification system
Importance: strategy, tactics, execution
Level: Group, Division, Factory, Department
Time horizon: long term, medium term, short term
Planning objects: sourcing, inventory, purchasing, replenishment, capacity, production, delivery
Characteristic elements
Plan Time Span: Plan outlook and length of time covered (annual, monthly)
Planning time unit: year, month, day
Planning frequency: How often the plan is reviewed and updated
Plan detail level: The shorter the planning time span, the lower the level, and the higher the level of detail.
Four basic manufacturing environments
ETO: engineer to order
MTO: Make to Order
MTS: Make to Stock
ATO: Assemble to order
master production schedule
Material requirements planning and production scheduling system
Material requirements planning system
MPS
BOM
Inventory records
plan parameters
Production scheduling system
Production scheduling information: product master data files, BOM, process routes and parameters, operation center master data, production order master data
Production Scheduling Methods and Technologies Consider overlap and segmentation, TOC
Schedule production along the way
Backward scheduling
Unlimited capacity scheduling
Limited capacity scheduling
supply capacity planning
Multi-process production scheduling method
Johnson's rule: when multiple products flow through two fixed processes
resource planning
Representative product list method (structure, complexity, process similarity)
Hypothetical product list method (low familiarity angle)
Chapter 3 Lean and Agile Supply Chain
Lean supply chain
Seven wastes: Tim Wood (Transport T, Inventory I, Action M, Transition operation O, Overproduction O, Waiting W, Defective goods D)
JIT
Single source of supply, Milk Run
Risks and Negative Impacts
No nearby supplier can be found that meets the minimum order quantity
Supply chain management is more complex
Change and commitment (money and time)
Agile supply chain
develop
Modern businesses face greater fluctuations in supply and demand than ever before
Contemporary enterprises require both cost and speed
characteristic ability
sensitive to market
Informatization
Highly integrated process
Based on supply network
application
Utilize split-point and delayed decision techniques
Make full use of cooperative relationships with suppliers
Reduce complexity
Utilize QR mode where appropriate
Participation of all employees in the enterprise
Quick response QR
Lean is based entirely on cost considerations, with an overly specialized workforce, too many organizational layers, and wasteful transitional forecasting and production.
Establish a fast network with QRM as the core to meet customization and small batch rapid response
Rapid response with production cycle as the core management strategy
Production organization changes from functional to unit-based
Management fully empowers
3*3
Moving toward cycle reduction with efficiency and utilization
Efficient Consumer Response ECR (Complex of Trade and Industry)
Work closely with retail, wholesale and manufacturers to improve SC efficiency
Process redesign, application of information technology
Get more business and profits with ECR
Four areas: demand management, supply management, driving (improving customer service levels), integration (supply chain redesign)
Other concepts and techniques related to lean and agile supply chains
Continuous improvement Kaizen/CI: widely used
Pull Supermarket Pull: use various signals to pull only produce and replenish the reduced part; have basic inventory, and then pull
Implementation of Lean and Agile Supply Chains
Management completes basic macro steps
Establish a supply chain vision (lean, agile or bidirectional)
Current VSM
FutureVSM
Five aspects of implementation
Understand customer needs and VA needs
Value stream planning: Delineate the various steps that goods go through in the supply chain system, and how to reduce NVA
Supply Chain Workflow: Identifying Bottlenecks/Drivers
Driven by customer needs, not plans
pursuing perfection
Comparison and comprehensive application of lean and agile
Reasons for developing a two-way supply chain
Existing at the same time, lean before the separation point and agile after the separation point
Different products lend themselves to different strategies
The market decides lean or agile (cost vs speed)
common problem
Supply chain management scope
Popular names and terms
Long-term progress, full participation, leadership support
Chapter 4 Inventory Management
Basic concepts of inventory
function or reason
Help form economies of scale. Only with scale can we reduce costs.
Separation (connecting processes with different beats)
Inventory in transit (GIT) generated during transportation
Speculating on stocks to profit from future appreciation
Strategic inventory or anticipated inventory (prices, shortages, balancing capacity, political factors, competitive strategies)
Safety stock to protect against supply chain uncertainty (demand, supply uncertainty)
Overstock, passively owned inventory (entering the off-season, product life)
Different concepts of inventory
Cycle inventory/turnover inventory (lead time, planning cycle)
safety stock
average inventory
Maximum inventory
Minimum inventory
Inventory performance
Days of Supply (DOS, Days of Supply)
Single product DOS = current inventory quantity/period demand quantity*number of days in the period
Multi-product DOS = current inventory value / cost of sales during the period * number of days in the period
When the sales cost or demand is zero or very low, the result is infinite and requires manual adjustment.
Inventory turnover rate = period demand cost amount / current inventory value
Stock quality: Check whether the inventory structure is reasonable, Especially industries that have requirements for product batch or shelf life management
Lots three months from production date are acceptable stock lots
Batches that are 6 months away from the shelf life are "bad goods"
Inventory days greater than a certain target value (such as 180 days) are sluggish inventory
Inventory costs
Carrying costs: capital, warehousing, insurance, losses, depreciation, taxes
Ordering costs: labor, equipment, communications, receiving, inspection, travel expenses
Cost of out-of-stocks: customer penalties, customer churn, additional costs
Several aspects of inventory optimization
Develop inventory strategies that involve all aspects of the company
Adjust inventory policy
More and more companies are leaving the disposal of dead inventory to the purchasing department.
Procurement understands the market better
Learn more about the company’s internal demand departments
Ability to recover value from sluggishness through professional methods
inventory planning model
Continuous replenishment model
Regular replenishment model
min-max replenishment model
Other models
Slow-moving goods (discrete demand): Most Category C products in the retail sector, factory equipment maintenance spare parts, and after-sales service parts
Poisson distribution POISSON, excel function
Basic inventory method: use one, purchase one
Single-stage replenishment model, newsboy theory
Stock order quantity
Economic order quantity EOQ Ordering cost = holding cost
Formula: C0*D/EOQ=Ci*EOQ/2
Assumptions
demand is stable
Order quantity does not have to be an integer
Unit variable cost is not related to order quantity
Varieties are independent of each other
Replenishment lead time is 0
The entire order quantity arrived instantly
simple batch method
Fixed quantity method: Both parties agree on a fixed quantity for ordering and replenishment, taking into account transportation equipment and production batch factors.
Minimum order method MOQ: Both parties agree on the minimum order quantity
Multiple method: Agree that each order should be an integer multiple of a fixed value
Batch-to-batch LFL: Orders and arrivals must correspond to demand per unit time (e.g., weekly)
Fixed period demand method: determine the quantity for several weeks at a time
Periodic ordering method POD: The ordering interval TBO is calculated: TBO=EOQ/D consumption per period
Safety stock and service levels
safety stock
Fundamental
root rule
Common service level systems
Out of stock probability system
Out of stock frequency system
Out of stock system
completion rate system
Chapter 5 Production Operation Management
The history of operations management
production process
Operation process selection
BEP decision-making investment VS manual intensive (two calculation methods (
Facility layout
beat calculation
Production cycle time = available production time per day/output per day
Minimum number of workstations = total time spent on all actions/beats
Efficiency = total production time / (beat * number of workstations)
Capacity management and equipment maintenance
Follow-up strategy: costs increase, satisfaction rate increases
Smooth strategy: low cost, business cannot satisfy
golden mean strategy
Reliability: Improving system reliability requires improving the reliability of individual components individually. R=R1*R2*R3*Rn
Build redundant spare parts: reliability = 0.9 0.9* (1-0.9)
Mean time between failures (MTBF) = 1/FR(N)
Chapter 6 Delivery
Distribution channel
Overview
concept
The organizations and links involved in transferring and delivering products or services to customers, as well as the entire physical/virtual channels passed through
4 flows: information flow, logistics, business flow, capital flow
The starting point of a distribution channel is the producer and the end point is the end user
A set of routes, organized and designed by the manufacturer according to the characteristics of the product/service, involving transaction facilitators (middlemen, agents, distributors) and 3PL logistics providers
Types and structures
Direct distribution (no middlemen, products reach users directly) Large-scale special equipment, technically complex, requiring professional installation and maintenance
advantage
Smooth information and on-demand production
Fast turnover and low circulation loss
Both buyers and sellers are relatively stable in terms of marketing
Good promotion effect
insufficient
Small batch purchase, management efficiency
National and regional culture, customs and purchasing preferences, it is difficult to ensure the right production and marketing without middlemen
Indirect distribution channels (using middlemen) Most of the products are general-purpose products
advantage
Increase market share
It is helpful to adjust the contradiction between production and consumption in terms of variety, quantity, time and space.
lower costs
Obtain the specialization and large-scale economic effects brought by social division of labor. Focus on core competitiveness
insufficient
Lagging demand creates bullwhip effect
The levels and links of distribution channels have increased, increasing the burden on consumers.
There is little direct information communication with end customers, and customer needs are not accurately grasped.
Mixed distribution channels, a combination of direct and indirect
Suitable for consumer goods with high degree of standardization and large sales volume
Distribution channel design and service
Five factors to consider when designing
product factors
Large, heavy, easy to corrode, high loss, choose direct channels
Standardized, low-priced middlemen
The life cycle is short, choose direct
Market and customer factors
Broad market and customer scope, indirect channels
High concentration, direct channels
Small volume, high frequency, indirect channels
Enterprise's own factors
Financially strong and direct
Dealers have strong management and control capabilities and indirectly
envirnmental factor
Political and economic laws that cannot be influenced by enterprises
cost considerations
Delivery process supply chain total cost optimization
Distribution Replenishment Plan DRP
Determine inventory levels in each distribution channel, and the time and quantity required for inventory replenishment to meet customer demand
Decompose and summarize according to the attribution relationship between upstream and downstream channels, called distribution list BOD
Aggregate dealer product supplemental data as forecast information input to MPS
It has little effect on MTO or ETO, and is more suitable for MTS.
DRPII: Based on DRP, plan other constrained resources in the distribution system
Kurama
labor force
Moving tools
transport vehicle
currency
Delivery management
Post delivery management
Transfer of title upon delivery
Basic Principles of Transfer of Ownership of Tangible Removable Products
Ownership of the specified goods is transferred upon delivery (FOB clause)
Ownership is transferred upon the effective date of the contract: no actual delivery or payment is required.
Transfer after signing property rights contract
Transfer of title upon delivery
Transfer ownership by mutual agreement
Transfer of ownership of tangible real estate and intangible services
Article 72 of the General Principles of Civil Law: Project funds and intangible services will be transferred within a certain period of time (such as 14 days) after the customer completes the settlement review and payment.
Some intangible services are not transferred but are licensed for use
Patent rights can be transferred or licensed
Many intangible services are the transfer of use rights, the sale and transfer of rights, and the rights holders pursue the interests embodied in the rights themselves. Ownership of goods is realistic and practical
Delivery default
The seller's total or partial failure to perform its delivery obligations
Complete failure to perform
Fundamental breach of contract: Complete failure to perform contractual obligations
Anticipatory breach of contract: The seller may either explicitly state that he will not perform the delivery or may express non-performance by his own behavior.
If the seller fails to perform the contract within a certain reasonable period after being urged by the buyer, the buyer may terminate the contract.
partial non-performance
The seller fails to perform the delivery of a certain batch of subject matter
Fundamental breach of contract for a certain batch of subject matter
Business batches are interdependent. When one batch is released, the entire contract can be released.
The quality or quantity of delivery is not as agreed upon
The buyer raises objections within a reasonable period, up to 2 years after receipt of the goods or otherwise agreed, otherwise it will be deemed to be in compliance with the contract
After notice of non-compliance, the buyer shall give the seller a reasonable period of time to make replacement, make up or take other remedial measures.
If the seller has no agreement on quality issues, the buyer can require the seller to bear the repair costs; if repairs cannot be made, the contract can be terminated.
The buyer can accept or reject the overpayment, and must promptly notify the seller of payment according to the contract price or rejection.
Multiple deliveries, one of which does not comply with the agreement, the buyer may cancel an agreement unless it cannot be used alone
Settlement, payment and reverse logistics
Settlement and Payment
Price issue
location problem
Unknown time
reverse logistics
The process in which merchant customers entrust third-party logistics to deliver items from the location specified by the user to the location of the merchant customer.
Low predictability, high uncertainty
Reverse logistics objects
Products and their packaging, parts, materials and other materials
Returns that have not been used or sold, or items that have been used, repackaged and returned after processing
Not only the processing of returns, but also to regain the use value of discarded products or defective products, or the correct disposal of final waste
Reverse logistics management
Reduce transshipment links in the delivery process
Strengthen inventory and warehousing management in all aspects of distribution channels
Precaution is an important principle of reverse logistics management, and modern information technology systems and equipment are used for in-process control.
It must be compliant and legal, and the reverse logistics of goods must be fully supervised.
Chapter 7 Logistics Network Planning
Overview
Contract logistics: Most companies choose to outsource logistics operations to 3PL, and most of them are based on full-year contracts. We call this field contract logistics.
Logistics network planning needs to answer several questions
Determine the appropriate number of warehouses
Determine the geographic location of each warehouse
Determine the size of each warehouse bay
Determine which products will be stored in each warehouse
Determine which warehouse will deliver the customer's needs
Factors affecting logistics network planning
Due time
Sales channel selection
Selection of supply sources
Choice of transportation method
government policy
Planning modeling basics
center of gravity method
M1: Calculate the total shipping cost of each point including the coordinate X distance
M2: Calculate the total shipping cost of each point including the coordinate Y distance
N: Calculate the freight volume at each point (rate * tonnage)
Coordinates X=M1/N, coordinates Y=M2/N
linear programming
Solver
Integer Linear Programming and Mixed Integer Programming
Binary variables for location problems
The variable being solved for is 0 or 1
Data for logistics network planning
demand data
Historical demand and forecast demand
Gathering of customer needs
product data
basic product info
Collection of product data
Network definition and list of potential nodes
fixed node, variable node
Fundamental conditions for potential nodes
Location in or near a transportation hub city
There are a large number of storage areas, warehouses and 3PL in that large area
You can also refer to the government’s planning for logistics node cities.
Three verticals and five horizontals formulated by the Ministry of Commerce in 2015
Three large north-south circulation channels
Eastern coast
Middle line Beijing, Hong Kong and Macao
Western Front Hukun
Five large east-west circulation channels
northwest north
Along the Longhai Lanxin Line
Along the Yangtze River
Along the Shanghai-Kunming line
Pearl River Xijiang
cost data
Shipping cost data
Freight tiered quotation
Door to door quote is incomplete
One truck for multi-point delivery (milk pickup)
Warehousing cost data
Operation method: leasing? Self-built? Dry rent? wet rent
Functional positioning: warehousing, sorting, assembly, cross-docking operations
Collection cost requires 3PL quotation, operation cost
Use standard RFQ
Transportation time
Delivery time requirements greatly impact logistics network planning
Shipping time calculations include travel, loading, unloading and waiting times
Service Level
The percentage of the number of customers that the network can cover within the set customer order response time
order completion rate
Business sub-model establishment
warehouse model
transport model
Stock model
Integration of sub-models
planning tools
Chapter 8 Supply Chain Information Systems and Technology
The importance and development history of information and information systems and technology in SCM
Basic components and interrelationships of supply chain information systems and technologies
Introduction to major supply chain information systems and technologies
Supplier relationship management SRM related systems
Electronic Procurement Information System
Electronic invoice
Internal supply chain management ISCM
Material requirements planning MRP information system
Manufacturing Resource Planning MRPII
Enterprise Resource Planning System ERP
Manufacturing Execution System MES
Customer management system CRM
Information systems and technology in logistics management
Warehouse Management System WMS
Transportation Management System TMS
automatic number recognition technology
barcodebarcode
Radio Frequency Technology RFID
GPS Global Positioning System/Beidou
Other supply chain information systems and technologies
big data big data
Data miningKnowledge discovery
Risks and prevention of supply chain information systems and technologies
Possible risks when installing and implementing new systems
Management: The new system is not easy and the work is at risk, which creates obstacles; managing the interests of employees creates obstacles
Technically: The old and new systems are mutually input and output and require integration of human and financial resources. They may not be in place and may face setbacks.
Independent research and development VS procurement: the advantages and disadvantages of both need to be comprehensively examined
Risks of existing information systems and technologies in operation
Software defects and quality issues
Unstable power supply
Computer virus and hacker attacks and information theft
Five elements of risk prevention and control
Choose information systems that can help at critical points in the supply chain
Step by step, timely evaluation of the value brought by the system requires long-term awareness
Determine the complexity of information systems and technologies based on actual needs
Information systems and technology aid decision-making, not make it
Choose to be forward-thinking (lean and agile think long term)
Basic steps for implementing a supply chain IT project
Sourcing system hardware, software and services
Buy
Training relevant personnel
Develop system user documentation
System switching
Chapter 9 Budget and Cost Management in Supply Chain Management
cost basis
Classification
Company functions: production, sales, marketing, R&D, logistics, management
Cost objects: direct costs, indirect costs
Changes in cost drivers: fixed costs, variable costs
Total or average: total cost, unit cost
cost management
Break-even analysis Find the corresponding sales quantity when sales = cost
sensitivity analysis
learning curve
The more complex and labor-intensive the work, the lower the learning curve rate and the slower the improvement after learning, but the higher the opportunity for improvement.
The simpler, the higher the learning curve rate and the lower the opportunity for cost improvement
Suitable for complex labor-intensive activities
Cost Allocation
Labor cost allocation
Depreciation of fixed asset equipment
straight line method
Operation method
sum of years
double declining balance method
Other cost sharing
Budget
Financial internal rate of return FIRR
Net present value NPV
Cost and price analysis
cost elements
Cost structure
Build a cost inference model (obtaining cost information method)
Forcefully require suppliers to provide cost structure tables, otherwise they will not be considered
Multiple supplier visits, negotiations, exchanges, and planned searches
Hear from peers
Search from various financial reports, magazines, and the Internet
Purchase relevant analysis reports from professional industry associations
Ask experts for analysis and consultation
Inventory Estimation Methods
first in first out
last in first out
standard cost
average cost
moving average
Lower of cost or market price method
retail inventory valuation method
Component analysis method
activity-based costing
target costing
total cost of ownership method
price analysis
price comparison
Compare with market prices in the same period, refer to PPI, tender
Manufacturer location, capacity utilization, technical advantages, labor costs, vertical integration capabilities within the industry, trends, etc.
Discount analysis
Batch analysis
Account period discount
channel discount
Seasonal discounts
regression analysis
The purpose is to find the price transmission mechanism, especially affected by the price of a certain primary product or service
Created a price prediction mechanism, managers can predict product prices by studying changes in a variable
Cost management in supply chain Focus on overall supply chain costs
Centralized purchasing
Advantage
Reduce administrative costs (vendor management, payment outsourcing)
More Professional
Controls that favor discretion
Disadvantages
Bureaucracy and inefficiency
Stay away from the next chapter and don’t understand the real needs.
common forms
Focus on sourcing
Order link
Accounts payable
decentralized purchasing