MindMap Gallery How to Think Systematically Reading Notes Mind Map
Qiu Zhaoliang's "How to Think System", a system is a whole composed of a group of interconnected entities. The entities that make up the system interact and influence each other continuously over a long period of time according to specific laws. Function, operating as a whole for a specific purpose or common goal.
Edited at 2023-12-02 13:02:10This is a mind map about bacteria, and its main contents include: overview, morphology, types, structure, reproduction, distribution, application, and expansion. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
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This is a mind map about the reproductive development of animals, and its main contents include: insects, frogs, birds, sexual reproduction, and asexual reproduction. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
This is a mind map about bacteria, and its main contents include: overview, morphology, types, structure, reproduction, distribution, application, and expansion. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
This is a mind map about plant asexual reproduction, and its main contents include: concept, spore reproduction, vegetative reproduction, tissue culture, and buds. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
This is a mind map about the reproductive development of animals, and its main contents include: insects, frogs, birds, sexual reproduction, and asexual reproduction. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
systems thinking
what is system
A system is a whole composed of a group of interconnected entities. The various entities that make up the system influence and interact with each other in a long-term and continuous manner according to specific laws, and operate as a whole for a specific purpose or common goal.
Three basic characteristics of the system
A system is composed of several elements (entities), which may be individual things. It may also be a subsystem composed of a group of things.
There are interactive feedbacks or connections between these elements (entities), which is an important distinction between a system and a collection ("heap") of things that have nothing to do with each other.
Feedback and interaction between elements (entities) make the system as a whole have specific functions. These functions are determined by the structure of the system and are often different from the characteristics and functions of its constituent elements.
Three components of the system
entity
One of the elements that constitute the system is entity - this is a general term or general concept, which can refer to tangible and active subjects, some intangible things, or the key features, elements and some parts of these things. .
Although the entity is the part that people tend to notice most when analyzing a system, and it is indeed an indispensable part of the system, it is usually the least important in defining the characteristics of the system.
Relatively speaking, changing entities has minimal impact on the system. As long as the internal connections and overall goals of the system are not touched, even if all entities are replaced, the system will sometimes remain the same, or only change slightly or slowly.
connect
For several entities to form a system, there must be internal connections between them, that is to say, there must be a relationship between one part of the system and another part.
According to Meadows, many connections in a system operate through the flow of information, which brings the system together and has an important impact on its operation.
Cutting off the connection will destroy the system. Therefore, if you want to understand a system and try to further influence its behavior or even control it, you must shift from studying the constituent entities to exploring the internal connections of the system, that is, studying the connections between the various components. elements that integrate together.
Function/Goal
For a system, which entities are composed of and how they are connected are not accidental or random, but depend on its inherent function or goal, whether this function or goal is explicitly written out or not.
Only by analyzing the behavior of the system can we infer the goals of the system, which are often the most critical determinant of system behavior.
generic system model
A basic social system may include the following elements and interactions
(1) Entity: The socio-technical system includes multiple active subjects. (2) Input: Most systems are not isolated and self-sufficient. They all exist or require various inputs from the outside (including energy, information, matter, etc.) to maintain the operation of the system. This is especially true for open systems. There are probably very few closed systems that have no or no input. (3) Processing process: If the system requires input, it means that the input is valuable to the system and the system needs to process it (such as decomposition, combination, processing, etc.). Therefore, there are usually processes in the system that process inputs and internal elements and convert them into outputs. These processes are often performed by the active subjects or components that make up the system, forming some connections between entities. (4) Output: Just like input, most systems have output (including energy, information, matter, etc.) to maintain the operation and balance of the system. (5) Feedback: Most systems have one or more feedback mechanisms that regulate the conversion process, which not only helps maintain the dynamic and stable operation of the system, but is also an important mechanism for interacting with the environment to achieve system functions or goals. From a structural point of view, input, processing, output and feedback are all connections between the system and its internal and external aspects, and its functions or goals are reflected in the output and processing on the one hand, and on the other hand, they must also jump out of these elements, viewed as a whole. (6) Boundary: Although things are universally connected, a system always has a boundary (tangible or invisible) to define "inside" and "outside". Sometimes, people often use the word "system" to mean "inside" and "environment" to mean "outside". A system can be open or relatively closed, but each has its boundaries. There are many interactions between an open system and its external environment.
Three sources of complexity in social systems
multiple complex, dynamic subjects
Their behavior is often unpredictable and varies from person to person, and they will react differently to the same information under different moods, occasions or situations.
The connections are numerous and extremely subtle and complex.
When many people come together, a large number of complex and subtle connections will be generated, not only collaboration in work or tasks, but also interconnections in information, emotion, psychology, life, economy, etc., which are countless and indescribable.
The most complex behavior of a system usually arises from interactions (feedback) between its components, rather than from the complexity of the components themselves.
Function or goal ambiguity
Although some organizations have written purpose or mission statements, those are often not the true functions or goals of the system, at least not all of them.
Since each subject in the social system has its own interests or demands, and different departments or groups also have their own interests or goals, the functions or goals of the entire system may not be consistent, and there may even be contradictions or conflicts. This also increases the complexity of social systems.
Eight characteristics of dynamic complex systems
The whole is greater than the sum of its parts
Although a system is a whole composed of several interconnected entities, the characteristics displayed by the system as a whole are often not the accumulation or average of the characteristics of its component parts, nor can they be obtained by studying any component in the system. They must be studied as a whole. and looking at the system. Segmenting things, no matter how finely you segment them and how deeply you study them, you may not be able to identify system-level characteristics.
self-organization or emergence
The so-called "self-organization" refers to their ability to learn by themselves, make their own structures increasingly complex, or evolve by themselves.
Because self-organization can cause a system to evolve into a completely new outcome and develop completely different behavior patterns that cannot be inferred from the behavior or characteristics of its component parts, this phenomenon is often called "emergence" , which is nonlinear and unpredictable.
Uncertainty, unpredictability, and no absolute or single “right” answer
For dynamic complex systems, the system consists of multiple entities that continuously and dynamically influence and interact with each other, with hundreds or thousands of variables, and they are all functions of time and change anytime and anywhere, thus making the system behavior diverse. Possibility, uncertainty, and to some extent even unpredictability.
Especially for dynamic complex systems, a set of variables are interconnected and produce multiple feedbacks, which will spontaneously create a new order that is difficult to control.
In fact, trying to find the "right answer", especially the idea of the only "right answer", is not in line with the characteristics of the system, but the linear thinking mode is at work.
Purpose
Every system has a specific purpose.
The presence of negative feedback in a system causes the system to produce purposeful behavior that can achieve self-regulation to achieve specific goals.
Adaptability and dynamic stability
The so-called "adaptability" refers to the ability of a system to offset external impacts in certain ways or mechanisms when it suffers external shocks or influences. To maintain the integrity of the system and restore it to its original or relatively stable state and operating mode
The main reason why the system is adaptable is that there are a large number of feedback loops that interact with each other within the system. These feedback loops support and interact with each other, and the one ebbs and flowses, making the system like a huge network. When faced with When impacted or disturbed, it can use different methods to remain relatively stable and return to its original state.
Adaptability does not mean standing still. In fact, an adaptable system may be constantly changing dynamically; on the contrary, a system that remains constant is not adaptive.
In principle, any change that cannot change the important feedback loop of the system, no matter how large it is, will only be temporary; on the contrary, any change that can affect the relationship between the key loops of the system, no matter how small it is, will change the long-term behavior of the system.
Hierarchy
In the process of self-organization in which the organization itself continues to evolve and increase in complexity, dynamic systems often generate certain levels or hierarchies.
In a hierarchical system, the interconnections within each subsystem are greater or stronger than the interconnections between subsystems. If the information connections within the subsystems are designed properly, the feedback delays between them will be smaller, making the system more efficient.
structure affects behavior
Even very different people tend to produce similar behaviors and outcomes when they are exposed to the same system. One of the basic principles of systems thinking is that the behavior of a system is determined by its structure. Structure is the pattern of interconnections between key elements in a system, including the system's physical and mechanical structures (e.g., hidden rules, values, etc.) and their complex, dynamic interactions with the decision-making processes of the system's agents.
"Structure affects behavior" is one of the most important characteristics of a system. Its extended meaning is: if you want to change or influence the behavior of the system, you should transform or adapt to its structure.
You first have to figure out how to understand the structure of the system. According to the system thinking method, you need to get out of your inherent position in the system and obtain more and more complete information from different angles and in different ways. Only in this way can we defeat "bounded rationality" to a certain extent, see the overall structure of the system, and find the "leverage point" to effectively regulate system behavior.
boundary
In some sense, everything is related to other things, more or less, deeply or shallowly.
We also need to realize that any boundary is artificially set, and no system can exist independently of other things.
change of thinking
systems thinking deficiency
From an early age we are taught to break down problems and understand the world into pieces. This can obviously make complex problems easier to deal with, but invisibly, we pay a huge price - we completely lose the 'sense of whole' and do not understand the series of consequences of our actions.
For example, in the face of the economic crisis, some entrepreneurs tried to cut costs through layoffs, only to find that this led to low morale and made the difficult situation "even worse"
The mental models that people use to guide their decisions are flawed in dealing with the dynamics of the system.
People tend to adopt an event-based view of causation rather than loops, ignore the feedback process, fail to appreciate the time lag between action and reaction, fail to understand stocks and flows when reporting information, and have a poor understanding of what is happening in the system. Insensitivity to nonlinear features that may change the strength of different feedback loops during evolution.
What is systems thinking
My understanding is that the root cause of these problems is people's existing thinking patterns. Therefore, to solve these problems, you must change to a new way of thinking. If the thinking model remains unchanged, these problems will not be effectively solved.
Systems thinking is to look at the various systems around us as a whole, analyze and interpret the various forces that affect system behavior and their interrelationships, so as to cultivate people's understanding of dynamic changes, complexity, interdependence and influence, Decision-making and response capabilities, so as to better live in harmony with the system and develop together.
A paradigm shift in thinking
The essence of scientific revolution, to sum up in one sentence, is the transformation of paradigm. The so-called "paradigm" refers to some concepts, basic rules and general views on the nature of social reality that are recognized by members of a community. You can think of it colloquially as a set of values, beliefs or worldview.
The essence of systems thinking is holistic thinking, which means understanding problems from a holistic perspective.
Not only analyze each component, but also explore the interconnections and dynamic feedback between them to find the internal structure that drives system behavior changes, and design appropriate intervention or intervention strategies to restore the system's own adaptability.
Thinking Cube®: An action framework for paradigm shift in thinking
The essence of systems thinking lies in "the change of thinking paradigm"
Let’s use a “Rubik’s cube” as a metaphor: everyone’s thinking has “angle” (whether it is dynamic or static), “depth” (whether it is superficial or insight into the inner structure) and “breadth” (whether it is limited to the basic level). , or see the big picture).
If a person's thinking has not been effectively trained and only relies on self-exploration, it is easy to fall into "system thinking deficiency syndrome". In the "Thinking Cube®", they are often in the upper left corner state, that is, "just look at the front, "Only look at the appearance (event), only the part"; a person with the wisdom of systematic thinking should be in the lower right corner of the "Thinking Cube®", that is, they can see the ins and outs (causes and trends) of things and see the development of things Trends or patterns of change and the drivers behind them (system structure), seeing the big picture (whole picture). In other words, you need to achieve a change in thinking in the above three dimensions and integrate them to achieve a "paradigm shift" from "reductionism" to "holism", thereby achieving systemic thinking.
Dynamic thinking: from linear thinking to circular thinking
. However, in systems thinking, cause and effect are not absolute. There may be a circular interaction between cause and effect, that is, "cause" produces "effect", and this "effect" becomes the "cause" of other "effects". It even becomes the “cause” of the “cause”.
If you just stay at the level of decomposing and clustering problems without examining the correlation or role between causes and results, you have not achieved systematic thinking.
Thinking deeply: from focusing on individual events to gaining insight into the underlying structure of the system
From the perspective of systems thinking, "structure affects behavior". It is the interaction and influence between the main variables that make up the system, which drives the change of the system, generates different behavior patterns, and thus evolves events one after another.
To achieve systems thinking, we cannot just stay at the level of events, symptoms, or symptoms. We must have a deep understanding of trends or patterns of events, behaviors, and the driving forces behind them.
Thinking comprehensively: from being limited to the local area to caring about the overall situation
However, the most common problem in organizations is still "individualism" and limited thinking and action. Everyone and each department only starts from their own position and often "blames external parties", causing the organization to be full of mutual accusations. and mediocre or even stupid decisions.
These problems arise from subtopics, partly because of the dynamic complexity of organizational systems, and partly because people lack the skills to think effectively as a whole. Therefore, in order to achieve systematic thinking, we must be able to think comprehensively, from being limited to the local area to caring about the overall situation and seeing the whole.
At the same time, you must also learn to set the boundaries of the system reasonably so as not to omit important stakeholders or include too many irrelevant details, making the analysis overly complicated.
3Think deeply
Many people are very busy and are "led by the nose" by one problem after another. One of the reasons why this happens is that you haven't found and solved the root cause. Beneath the apparent cause of the problem, there may be some feedback loop that allows similar problems to keep happening.
The way to break this "curse" is to think deeply, that is, to identify the "system structure" that drives similar problems through superficial phenomena, and to take effective intervention measures to change the structure of the system so that the problem will no longer occur.
In fact, systems thinkers will not focus on individual events, but can see a "line" - the trend or pattern of system behavior change from each "point" - surface phenomenon or event, and then through the analysis of causal interaction, Recognize the underlying structure that drives changes in system behavior—the key elements within the system and their interrelationships.
Iceberg model: an in-depth thinking framework that looks at the essence through phenomena
event
The part of the iceberg above the water is the event or activity that we can observe, perceive, and experience
trend or pattern
You first need to grasp the essence of the event and identify the key variables or metrics contained in it.
In many cases, it is not easy to do this, because the event itself contains many details and has different measurement or thinking directions. Different people are likely to focus on different aspects of it. To do this, you need to accurately grasp the problem. essence to prevent yourself from getting "lost" in the complexity of details.
Secondly, you need to broaden your horizons, connect the same type of events and look at them together, and then find clues.
Finally, in order to avoid falling into subjective assumptions or being blinded by our thinking, preconceived judgments or "prejudices", you need to extend the time dimension and use some specific data or information to see if there are any trends or patterns in these events.
Therefore, if you can separate yourself from specific events, stand at a higher perspective, and see the nature of the problem and the changing dynamics of the system behavior, you can better judge the nature of the problem and make some better decisions. for accurate predictions.
structure
After clarifying the trends or patterns behind relevant events, you need to further analyze and sort out the causal relationships behind these trends or patterns, that is, what are the influencing factors, what are the correlations and feedbacks between them, and their growth paths , what is the changing situation? These things are what we call the "structure of the system." They are the key to understanding what happens in the system and why it happens, allowing us to not only "know what is happening" but also "know why it is happening." Here, "structure" does not refer to the logical structure or the reporting relationships between organizational members, but to the key influencing elements (or "variables") in the system and how they are interconnected (or "connections"). ")
In fact, if you can gain insight into the internal structure of the system, then you can not only deduce various possible change dynamics of the system, "know what it is" and "know why" the evolution dynamics of system behavior, but you can also through appropriate intervention Measures change the structure of the system, thereby fundamentally changing the behavior of the system and eliminating the root causes of recurring or evolving problems.
mental model
At the bottom of the "iceberg", there are some of our deep-rooted beliefs, rules, assumptions or prejudices hidden. It is these things called "mental models" that allow each active system entity to make various decisions. feedback, countermeasures or actions.
The so-called mental models refer to some deep-rooted assumptions, prejudices, logic, rules, and even images, impressions, etc. that are hidden deep in everyone's heart and affect how people view and respond to the world.
In the system structure, almost any connection between two variables hides certain rules.
Understand the dynamics of changes in system behavior
We need to organize related events in chronological order and see the changing trends or patterns of system behavior over a period of time.
behavior pattern diagram
Behavior pattern diagram is a very basic and simple tool. It consists of a horizontal axis (time) and a vertical axis (performance of variables). It uses a curve to express the evolution pattern of a problem or variable over time.
When encountering a problem, the first thing that people who are good at systems thinking have to do is to look for data and information, and understand the historical situation of the system and the trend of behavior changes over time. Systems thinkers often use diagrams to help understand the dynamic changes of the system and understand the trends or patterns of system behavior changing over time, rather than just focusing on specific events.
The value of behavioral pattern diagrams includes the following four aspects.
First, look at the essence through the phenomenon and grasp the key. To draw a behavioral pattern map, you first need to eliminate chance, grasp the real problem reflected by the event, and identify the key variables contained in it.
Second, extend the time dimension and avoid focusing on isolated events. One of the most basic uses of behavioral pattern diagrams is to allow us to jump out of specific events and see the changing trends of system behavior, instead of getting stuck in specific events (points).
Third, remain objective and avoid subjective bias. The data in the behavioral pattern chart should be objective and real. Therefore, they can faithfully reflect the context and volatility of the problem. Without this objective data, we are likely to be influenced by subjective bias. As mentioned before, everyone has deep-rooted and hidden "mental models" deep in their hearts. They will influence our observations and allow us to see what we want to see, or to follow our own preferences and interests. or criteria to interpret this information and make judgments.
Fourth, assist in identifying system structure. According to the basic principle of systems thinking - "structure affects behavior", the external behavioral performance of a system is actually affected by its internal structure. Long-term trends in system behavior therefore provide important clues to our understanding of the underlying system structure.
Tools: Scatter Plot
A scatter plot is a tool used to determine the relationship between two variables.
We can judge whether there is a correlation between variables by observing the distribution of coordinate points, as well as the nature (such as linear correlation, exponential or logarithmic relationship, etc.) and intensity (slope) of the relationship.
See the essence through dynamics
It's not easy to see through a trend or pattern to see the underlying structure. This not only requires you to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the problem, taking into account various stakeholders, but also requires you to think deeply, grasp the key points, and study the relationship between the impact exerted by various stakeholders and the impact received from a dynamic perspective. There are no direct or indirect interactions.
Six basic behavioral patterns and the driving forces behind them
The most basic behavioral patterns are exponential growth, goal seeking, and oscillation; the basic behavioral patterns derived from this are S-shaped growth, S-shaped growth with over-adjustment and collapse.
subtopic
4Dynamic thinking
When we think about problems, we must have a dynamic perspective, conduct comprehensive analysis, see the "in and out" of things, and sort out the interaction between various key elements, the ebb and flow of one and the other, as well as various possible changes.
The problems encountered by managers are usually not isolated from each other, but affect each other and change dynamically, especially in dynamic situations composed of a series of complex systems. In this case, managers cannot just solve problems but should be good at managing chaotic situations.
Don’t think linearly in a non-linear world
While it is necessary to generalize, generalize, or refine things, we must be careful not to fall for the trap of linear thinking, especially with complex dynamic systems.
Linear thinking mode is suitable for some professional, simple problems or tasks in a controlled environment, or one-time events. Systems thinking is more suitable for analyzing and solving dynamic complex problems.
◎Consider the problem comprehensively and avoid generalizations. ◎Use a three-dimensional, many-to-many approach to analyze the mutual influence of cause and effect. ◎Use the perspective of dynamic changes to analyze complex problems, not only to understand its development and change trends and patterns, but also to anticipate its possible changes. ◎It is necessary to take into account various limiting factors, but also grasp the key points and judge the dominant loop from a dynamic perspective. ◎Don’t instinctively default to linear or uniform changes in system behavior, but consider multiple possibilities. ◎Don’t think that only your own point of view is correct. Be good at listening, keep an open mind, and explore multiple possibilities. ◎If you want to propose intervention measures, you must go through systematic analysis, target the dominant loop, and implement comprehensive policies. Don’t expect a single measure to solve all problems once and for all. You must even deliberately resist choosing one or a few that seem to have quick results. The temptation of countermeasures. Because for a dynamic complex system, it can be said that "one trigger affects the whole body." As long as you take an action against one of the symptoms, the entire system will change. If the countermeasure is not an overall coordinated "fundamental solution" made after overall consideration, even if this countermeasure can achieve certain results in the short term, it may have "side effects" at some time and place in the future, or even This creates the dilemma of “the solution is worse than the problem”.
Unfortunately, as mentioned earlier, in the real world, the causes of problems are often very complex, and there may be more and bigger problems hidden behind them; at the same time, there are complex interactions and interactions between these causes and results. Dynamic, you find and solve a single "cause", other conditions will pop up. In this regard, I believe that we must break the one-way and linear thinking model, see the interconnection between cause and effect, learn to use the "circular" and dynamic thinking model, and then use the "Thinking Compass®"
Circular Thinking®: Seeing the “Hidden” Loops
Systems thinkers see the world as a combination of various "feedback processes."
Two characteristics
First, we not only see the current causal relationship, but also lengthen the time dimension of thinking and see the dynamic changes and possibilities of the development of things, that is, our thinking is not static.
Second, we should not only see one-way, linear causal connections, but also realize that there may be circular interactions between the so-called "causes" and "effects" (see the loop in Figure 4-2). In other words, our thinking is not one-way and linear, but circular and dynamic.
Circular Thinking® Steps
1. Find problems Find a recurring problem in work and life as an analysis object
If the problem chosen for analysis is not a complex dynamic problem at all, then this analysis method cannot or does not need to be used at all.
Question criteria
◎Be clear, specific and focused, not too vague or complicated. ◎Involves multiple active subjects. ◎It has existed for a period of time and has undergone certain dynamic changes. It is not a one-time or accidental case. ◎It should not be too complicated, because overly complex issues (such as transportation, ecology, housing prices, etc.) have many variables or influencing factors, making it difficult for beginners to master. ◎It cannot be too simple, because a very simple problem may not have a loop that causes it to happen again and again.
2. Find the reason List the various causes of the problem and use arrows to connect them to the problem (from cause to problem).
◎You can use "brainstorming method" or "nominal group method" to determine the cause of the problem through team discussion. ◎You can use auxiliary tools such as "Five Whys" or "Fishbone Diagram" to sort out the main reasons, and conduct hierarchical analysis and clustering of related reasons. ◎If the problem chosen for analysis is relatively complex, it is recommended to find out the core key factors. ◎For a complex problem, there may be many reasons, and these reasons also have different levels. In other words, the two reasons A1 and A2 caused the cause A; the three reasons B1, B2 and B3 caused the cause B; the reasons A, B, C and D caused the problem. To do this, you need to sort out the hierarchy between these causes to see whether they are at the same level as other causes; whether they are parallel, inclusive or intersecting with each other; whether they are directly related or indirectly affected.
3. Find the results. Find out the various results that this problem may produce, including its consequences, its impact on other aspects, and the reactions of active subjects in the system, etc. Use arrows to connect them with the problem (from Questions refer to individual results).
4. Find the loop. Think about whether there is an implicit "loop" between the result and the cause. In other words, the consequences of the problem directly or indirectly affect the cause of the problem, thus forming a closed loop.
Discover clues of cause and effect
◎Sequentiality: If certain events are organized in time sequence, within a period of time, after event A appears or is completed, event B will appear or be executed, and there may be an inherent correlation between them.
◎Synergism: Within a period of time, two or more events or variables always show the same, similar or opposite change patterns, and it can be assumed that there is an inherent correlation between them. ◎Correlation: If an event always occurs with another event within a period of time or in a certain space, there may be a correlation between the two. ◎Similarity: There are similarities in the form or model of two or more events, and there may be causal clues between them.
5Think comprehensively
For complex social systems, it is also necessary to set appropriate boundaries. This allows us to consider everything comprehensively without missing important stakeholders, but without being too broad and complicated.
From local confinement to caring for the overall situation
An organization is a complex interlocking system. A move by any department or member may have an impact in one way or another on different subjects in the system at different times.
People with the wisdom of systematic thinking must see not only their own factors, but also the connections between themselves and others.
Thinking in this way is almost part of the nature of the human mind.
Human beings’ basic need is survival, and what is most closely related to survival is the surrounding world.
Thinking Compass®: A Tool for Comprehensive Thinking
We can list all the major stakeholders relevant to an issue, while encouraging everyone to “put themselves in their shoes,” brainstorm, and see the interconnectedness of various cause-and-effect relationships.
I found that in the process of "analyzing the root causes of differences", many people simply listed a few reasons, which was neither comprehensive nor in-depth.
◎The analysis is very shallow and cannot find the root cause of the problem. ◎Everyone only thinks from their own position or part based on their own habits or experiences, and cannot ensure "seeing the whole picture." ◎ Failure to see the relationship and mutual influence between various stakeholders and the problem can easily lead to everyone "blaming others" or blaming each other as the "culprit", which affects the review effect.
Use the Thinking Compass® for work system or task analysis
Specific steps
The first step is to identify your key questions and their measurement metrics.
You have to choose a few indicators that are more critical or fundamental.
The second step is to list the stakeholders necessary for you to get the job done.
List all the stakeholders (“entities”) relevant to your task, topic, or work and arrange them in different sectors of the Thinking Compass®. Each entity corresponds to a sector. If these entities can comply with the "MECE law" ("mutually independent and completely exhaustive"), the analysis will be clearer and logically complete.
The third step is to list the key factors or impacts of each entity (on the topic).
Put yourself in the perspective of each entity and think about it: What are their key policies, elements, and actions that will affect your work or issues? What changes will they cause?
Step 4: List the impacts on these entities.
Put yourself in each entity's shoes and think about how they will be affected. Write the consequences of these influences in the outer circle of the corresponding sectors, and use arrows to connect these consequences to the central task or issue (pointing from the center to the outer circle).
The fifth step is to sort out the interactive relationships and feedback loops.
Subtopic After analyzing the impact of your work, problem to be solved, or task to be completed on each entity, you should further think about: How will these entities react?
The sixth step is to analyze and determine the strategy.
From a holistic perspective, conduct the following reflections to develop effective strategies.
◎What is the function or goal of the entire system? ◎What are the goals of each entity? Are they consistent with the overall function or goal of the system? ◎Are the interactions between various entities consistent with the welfare of the system as a whole? ◎Do your key performance indicators appropriately and accurately reflect the overall system functions or goals? ◎In order to better live in harmony with the system, what strategies should you adopt?
Define the boundaries of the system
Understanding and grasping the boundaries of the system is both a difficult challenge and a hurdle that cannot be bypassed. Because in the system, there is no clear and clearly demarcated boundary, but we need to set it according to our own needs and actual situation.
Tools for setting boundaries
1. Entity relationship diagram The entity relationship diagram shows all relevant subjects (stakeholders) in the system and the key feedback relationships between them. Corresponding to the constituent elements of the system, it usually includes two types of elements: entities and feedback between entities
Entity relationship diagram includes four important functional components
First, boundaries. For a given thing, there is usually some presence or characteristic that separates the organic part of the system from other parts.
Second, environment. Most social systems do not exist in isolation and have diverse connections with other things.
Third, elements. Elements are relatively complete people or things in the system that cannot or do not need to be further subdivided. They are the basic components of the system.
Fourth, subsystems. A certain number of elements form sub-systems, which are combined to form the entire system. They can also be subdivided into smaller parts.
2. Input-output diagram For open systems, there are many connections between them and the external environment. If the system is viewed as a whole, its connection with external entities can be regarded as the input and output of the system.
The input-output diagram is often used when people lack an in-depth understanding of the problem. We cannot conduct a detailed analysis of each entity and its connections within the system boundary. Therefore, it can be used as a "black box" to grasp the main input and output, sort out, and Determine the boundaries and outline the general outline of the system. this
Six reference principles for delineating boundaries
1. Always remind yourself: There is no clear and clearly set boundary in the system about what I am interested in or want to study. Therefore, the first rule of setting system boundaries is: we need to set system boundaries according to our own needs and actual conditions.
Subtheme 2. Don’t be fooled by physical or tangible, political boundaries
3. For each new task, reconsider setting boundaries
Extensive consultation and listening to opinions from stakeholders or team discussions
. Complex or confusing charts require reflection.
6. Use “pendulums” or “clouds”
The “new language” of systems thinking: causal loop diagrams
Therefore, in order to effectively understand the mechanism behind the dynamics of system behavior, we need to think deeply, comprehensively, and dynamically to figure out what key elements are at work and how they interact with each other. According to this "structure", What are the possible changes in system behavior? A person with similar wisdom must be a "master", no matter what industry he is in.
loop
In the field of systems thinking, people usually use closed loops composed of a series of interconnected variables to represent the key influencing factors in the system and their interconnections and important feedback, thereby reflecting the cause-and-effect relationships between complex things. , that is, the structure and essence of the system
The so-called "loop" is like an electric current or water flow. It starts from one place, passes through a series of links, and finally reacts on itself, forming a closed loop.
Loops are composed of variables and connections
variable
Variables are attributes, characteristics, or elements of entities in the system. They have different states, affect other variables, and are also affected by other variables.
Any variable is either a stock or a flow, and there is no other type.
Example: Bathtub with running water
Stock
The so-called stock is a variable that accumulates over time and can be measured, sensed, counted or observed at every time node.
flow
subtopic
It is a situation that changes over a period of time.
connect
Links reflect the relationship between variables and their direction of change, represented by directed arrows (from cause to result) and their polarity (change in the same direction ( ) or opposite change (-)). is a causal relationship
People usually mark " " or "-" at the end of the arrow to express whether the changing relationship between the two variables connected by the directed arrow changes in the same direction or in the opposite direction. That is to say, all connections in which the growth of the cause causes the effect to also increase, or the connections in which the weakening of the cause causes the effect to also weaken, are all in the same direction (also known as positive feedback), represented by " "; on the contrary, if the cause The increase leads to the decrease of the result, or the weakening of the cause leads to the enhancement of the result. Such a connection is a reverse connection (also known as negative feedback), marked with "-".
Identify circuit characteristics
All closed feedback loops are either reinforcing loops or regulating loops
Reinforcement loop
Whenever you see something continuing to grow, you can be sure that one or more reinforcing circuits are dominant.
The so-called reinforcing loop refers to a loop with self-reinforcing characteristics. It is the existence of reinforcing loops that drives the growth of system behavior.
All reinforcing loops exhibit either exponential growth or exponential decay
virtuous cycle, vicious cycle
regulating loop
No reinforcing loop can exist independently. At different times or conditions, it will encounter some limiting factors that limit or reverse its growth trend. Most of the time, a reinforcement loop has multiple limiting factors. The above limiting factors can be represented by a regulating loop.
Regulatory loops can cause a system to move toward a certain goal.
If a certain variable declines, the magnitude of its decline becomes smaller and smaller over time, eventually reaching the desired goal
How regulatory loops work
1. Resistance or limiting factors As mentioned above, no reinforcing loop can exist alone, and there must be multiple limiting factors.
2. Intervention or problem solving Since the regulating loop has the function of correcting the direction of the system's operation, it is often used as a problem-solving mechanism, because the problem is usually defined as the state of things deviating from the goal, and solving the problem requires modifying the behavior of the system to move it toward the goal.
3. Balance or achieve goals Regulatory loops always move toward ("seeking") a goal—usually a stable state or an external limit or an expected goal determined by system forces—so that it actually functions as a pursuit of balance or goal achievement.
Ubiquitous time delays
In a dynamic system, the interaction or effect between variables is more or less delayed in time, that is, this feedback or effect takes a period of time to manifest.
Time delays abound in systems, and they determine the system's response speed, the accuracy of achieving goals, and the timeliness of information transmission in the system.
Type of time delay
Time delays are ubiquitous in systems. It takes time for almost any influence relationship between two variables to take effect, and it also takes time for information to be transmitted through feedback loops.
. Information delay The so-called information delay refers to the certain delay in people's perception of information, reaction or feedback.
2. Physical delay Relative to information delay, there is also a large amount of time delay in the physical world.
If we increase, decrease, or eliminate time delays, it is possible to significantly change the behavioral dynamics of the system. Therefore, it is also one of the important "leverage points" for intervening in the system.
The length of time delay will have a significant impact on the behavior pattern of the feedback loop, and is usually the main cause of oscillations and fluctuations.
System archetype
"System archetype" refers to the basic model of the system, which gives us some recurring structural forms that we can always see in our work and life. The same is true for systems, which will also show various behavior changes, but there are always some common behavior patterns, characteristics, and conditions. Some people have summarized and refined the system structure that leads to these common conditions, which is called "System Archetype".
critical turning point
What kind of problems can systems thinking be used to solve?
Three types of complexity problems
Complex problems, where there is a lot of uncertainty and dynamic change, like raising a child or running a business, where one must always be prepared to deal with a variety of unpredictable situations
1. Social complexity
Some problems may not be complicated from a technical perspective. For example, if we want to build a road from point A to point B, survey, design, and construction are not problems. However, this problem involves multiple stakeholders (such as Community residents, governments, development units, etc.), the relationships between them are numerous and subtle, their interest demands, opinions, etc. may also be very different, and there may be direct or indirect, explicit or implicit conflicts, making it difficult to find out which one is the best. A reasonable solution that is acceptable to both parties
2. Dynamic complexity Although there are not many subjects involved in some problems, there are many factors that affect and are affected by the problem, and there are intricate interactions or causal relationships between them. Even the mutual influence of cause and effect is not manifested at the same time. or space, leading to different dynamics over time.
Emergent complexity Otto believes that the stakeholders involved in some problems are unclear or have not yet been identified, and it is difficult to sort out the causal relationship that led to the problem, as well as the possible consequences of the problem, and even the problem itself and the mechanism behind it are unclear. It is still uncertain or unclear, and it is difficult to quantify. There is huge uncertainty in the future.
The general process of using systems thinking to solve problems
Set the problem and describe the event
To use systems thinking to solve problems, you first need to define the problem you want to analyze. No matter how effective the tools are, the results of the analysis will be greatly affected if the questions are poorly chosen or if the things to be analyzed are not clear.
First, the issue should be important to you and your organization.
Second, select long-term problems or recurring phenomena.
Third, choose an appropriately scoped question. If the scope is too broad, you run the risk of becoming too complex to navigate, or too abstract to understand.
Fourth, choose a problem that you are familiar with or can learn more about. To do a good job of analysis, you'd better have knowledge or experience related to the problem, be able to understand and describe its ins and outs, and have deep insights into its key elements and their interrelationships.
Fifth, describe the problem as accurately as possible. Avoid biasing issues based on political factors or observer interests.
Gather relevant information and identify behavioral patterns
Effective modeling depends on strong data resources and a good understanding of the problem.
Effective problem solving requires the collection and analysis of relevant information.
Collecting and analyzing information includes the following three levels. ◎Effectively observe and collect surface information at the event level. For complex systems, the events themselves may be complex. In order to accurately understand and grasp the system structure, it is necessary to conduct effective observations and extensively collect event-level information (data or information). ◎Grasp the key elements contained in events, and use tools such as behavioral pattern charts to analyze dynamic information about the development and changes of things. ◎Collect potential impact information, such as policies, implicit assumptions, rules, etc.
Analyze structures, identify variables and connections, and draw causal loop diagrams
Find out the key influencing factors ("variables") and the interrelationships ("connections") between the "variables", and use the "causal loop diagram" method to reveal the structure of the system.
See the big picture rather than the local part; finally, think dynamically and see the correlation between key variables and the trends and patterns of development and change.
Reflect, emerge and improve mental models to find “fundamental solutions”
Here's how to use causal loop diagrams to surface mental models.
First, examine the interrelationships between key variables in the causal loop diagram. Behind each connection lies people's specific views, logic, rules or assumptions.
Second, pay special attention to the different opinions of others.
Third, pay attention to dilemmas that “wrench” or confuse you.
How to find "fundamental solutions" and "leveraged solutions"
There are often no simple solutions to complex problems. This requires us to treat based on syndrome differentiation, take comprehensive measures, adopt a multi-pronged approach, coordinate advancement, and make flexible adjustments during the implementation process.
The so-called "fundamental solutions" refer to measures that can fundamentally and relatively completely eliminate or alleviate the root cause or dominant driving force of the problem.
12. Numbers (including various constants and parameters) Just like the bathtub example we mentioned in Chapter 6, adjusting parameters such as the diameter of the faucet, the thickness of the sewer, and the volume of the bathtub will change the behavior of the system without changing the physical structure of the system.
Adjusting the system through numbers (especially the size of the flow) is the least effective way, because it cannot change the basic structure of the system, but only adjusts some details.
11. Buffer The so-called "buffer" is actually some relatively large and stable stocks, and some fluctuations in flow in or out will not affect it too much.
If we can maintain a certain amount of raw material inventory, even if there are some fluctuations in upstream supply, the company can still produce relatively stably.
10 The stock-flow structure mainly refers to some entity systems and their intersection nodes. According to a basic characteristic of the system "structure affects behavior", if you can change the structure of the system (including some physical structures), you can change the behavior of the system.
Rebuilding physical systems is usually the slowest, most expensive, and in some cases almost impossible.
9. Time delay As discussed in Chapter 6, time delays can have a significant impact on the behavior of feedback loops. Adjusting or changing the time delay is also an option for leverage points.
8. Regulation loop As mentioned before, regulatory loops are ubiquitous in systems, and their characteristics are to make the behavior of the system tend to a target value or maintain a stable state. To a certain extent, it can be said that it is the existence of the regulatory loop that makes the system self-correcting and stable adaptability.
Essentially, any regulatory loop requires three elements: the desired goal, a set of detection devices, and a series of reaction or correction mechanisms.
7. Enhance the loop We already know that reinforcing loops are self-reinforcing, that is, when symptoms such as growth, acceleration, or collapse appear in the system, the dominant force behind it is the reinforcing loop.
6. Information flow Because one of the core components of the system is interconnection, which is embodied in information flow, feedback and loops, information flow is a core element in the system structure.
subtopic
We can see that increasing or adjusting the flow of information within a system, and changing the structure of the flow of information, can be a powerful intervention and is often easier and less expensive than rebuilding the physical infrastructure of the entity.
5. System rules: incentives, penalties and restrictions According to the basic principles of the system, rules are some incentives, punishment policies and restrictions. In fact, they are also some important structural elements of the system, which have a significant impact on people's behavior. Change the rules of the system
4. Self-organization: the power of system structure to increase, change, or evolve
Self-organization means that the system has the ability to make its own structure more and more complex. Self-organization is the basic mechanism for the evolution of biological systems, an important source of system adaptability, and an important condition for maintaining diversity, creativity, and vitality.
3. Goal: the function or purpose of the system
If the function or goal of the system is changed, the behavior of the system will naturally change fundamentally. Therefore, targets are important leverage point alternatives that influence system behavior.
First, the overall goal of some systems (especially some more complex systems) is not clearly stated, and it is not the sum of each of its local goals.
Second, each part of the system has its own goals, which are sometimes inconsistent with the overall goals of the system.
2. Social paradigm: the mental model that determines why a system becomes a system
The essence of systems thinking is a paradigm shift in thinking.
To truly achieve systems thinking, we must change the concepts, basic rules, and generally accepted views on the nature of world reality that are generally accepted by society.
1. Beyond the paradigm
Because any of us will be controlled by paradigms at all times, everyone's information and thinking are limited.