Logistics service demand survey

Logistics resource status survey

Research on the competitive situation of logistics services

Survey on socio-economic development status

Survey on the status of logistics technology

According to different research media

Depending on the contact method of the research subjects,

Depending on the scope of the research objects

Different ways and methods of obtaining data🌟

Accuracy analysis of survey data

Classification and summary of research data

market research method

group opinion method

historical analogy

Delphi method

Comprehensive estimation method

time series forecasting method

causal prediction method

Logistics demand forecast error analysis method

That is, the scale of logistics is the sum of the logistics operations such as transportation, storage, packaging, loading and unloading, and circulation processing in logistics activities.

From the perspective of logistics service content

According to the form of logistics demand

The basis for formulating strategic goals for logistics development.

Tools for designing logistics management strategies.

Uncertainty in logistics needs.

Characteristics of spatial distribution and time distribution of logistics demand.

The basic statistical data is insufficient and the statistical caliber is flawed.

Including determining the purpose of forecasting and object forecasting period; directly affecting the following subsequent steps

Vertical historical information and horizontal data information.

Choose a prediction method, build a prediction model, and use the model to make predictions.

And the predicted results may not be consistent with the actual situation that will occur in the future.

After obtaining the prediction results, the prediction should be analyzed and evaluated, the difference should be calculated, and the reasons for the error should be analyzed.

Forecast errors are mainly caused by the selected forecast model or forecast method, and the forecast model and forecast method should be improved to minimize the error.

On the basis of error calculation, the prediction results are corrected through qualitative and quantitative analysis and prediction common sense and experience.

The budget model should be consistent with the development laws of things.

See if the forecast model can explain how things will develop during the forecast period.

Look at the error range of the prediction model

Accurately reflect the development of the predicted object over a longer period of time.

Whether the parameters and budget capabilities of the model are affected by factors that change the statistical data

Models with similar predictive capabilities: Choose models that are simple in form and easy to operate.