MindMap Gallery Chapter 10 Project Progress Management Advanced Projects 4th Edition
Project schedule management is to ensure that the project is completed on time and manage the various processes required for the project, including planning the schedule, defining activities, arranging the sequence of activities, estimating activity duration, formulating project progress plans and controlling progress.
Edited at 2023-10-12 17:30:03This is a mind map about bacteria, and its main contents include: overview, morphology, types, structure, reproduction, distribution, application, and expansion. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
This is a mind map about plant asexual reproduction, and its main contents include: concept, spore reproduction, vegetative reproduction, tissue culture, and buds. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
This is a mind map about the reproductive development of animals, and its main contents include: insects, frogs, birds, sexual reproduction, and asexual reproduction. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
This is a mind map about bacteria, and its main contents include: overview, morphology, types, structure, reproduction, distribution, application, and expansion. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
This is a mind map about plant asexual reproduction, and its main contents include: concept, spore reproduction, vegetative reproduction, tissue culture, and buds. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
This is a mind map about the reproductive development of animals, and its main contents include: insects, frogs, birds, sexual reproduction, and asexual reproduction. The summary is comprehensive and meticulous, suitable as review materials.
Chapter 10 Project Progress Management
10.1 Management basics
10.1.1 Definition and general requirements of project schedule
The project schedule provides a detailed plan for the project, describing how and when the project will deliver the products, services and results defined in the project scope. It is a tool used to communicate and manage stakeholder expectations and provides the basis for performance reporting.
The general steps for the project management team to prepare a schedule are: first select a schedule planning method, such as the critical path method; then enter project-specific data, such as activities, planned dates, durations, resources, dependencies, and constraints, etc. into the schedule preparation tool , create a project schedule model; finally form a project schedule plan based on the schedule model.
The project schedule should be maintained flexible throughout the project and adjusted as knowledge, risk understanding, and value-added activities change.
10.1.2 New management practices
New trends and emerging practices regarding project schedule planning methods include: •Iterative schedule with unfinished items: The application of adaptive life cycle in product development is becoming more and more common, and many projects adopt this rolling planning schedule method based on adaptive life cycle. The benefit of this approach is that it allows changes to be made throughout the development life cycle. This approach documents requirements in user stories, then prioritizes and refines user stories before building them, and finally develops product features within a stipulated time. This approach is typically used to deliver incremental value to customers, or for multiple teams to develop large, interconnected, smaller features in parallel. •On-demand scheduling: The on-demand scheduling method does not rely on a pre-defined schedule, but extracts work tasks from unfinished items and work sequences as soon as resources are available. This method is suitable for applications with the following Featured items: One is projects that develop products incrementally in an operational or ongoing environment; The second is projects with relatively similar scale or scope of work tasks; The third is projects where tasks can be combined according to scale or scope.
10.2 Project progress management process
10.2.1 Process Overview
The project schedule management process includes: •Planning Schedule Management: Develop policies, procedures and documents for the purpose of planning, preparing, managing, executing and controlling the project schedule. •Define Activities: Identify and record the specific activities required to complete the project deliverables. •Sequence activities: Identify and document relationships between project activities. •Estimated activity duration: Based on the results of resource estimation, estimate the number of work periods required to complete a single activity. • Develop schedule plan: analyze activity sequence, duration, resource requirements and schedule constraints, create project schedule model, and implement project execution and monitoring. •Control Schedule: Monitor project status to update project progress and manage changes to the schedule baseline. In the actual progress of the project, the above processes will overlap and interact with each other.
Table 10-1 Project progress management process
10.2.2 Tailoring considerations
Because every project is unique, project managers may tailor the project schedule management process as needed. Factors to consider when cutting include: • Life cycle approach: Which life cycle approach is best for developing detailed schedules? • Resource availability: What factors influence how long resources can last (eg, the correlation between available resources and their productivity)? •Project dimensions: How do project complexity, technical uncertainty, product novelty, velocity, or progress tracking (e.g., earned value, percent complete) affect the desired level of control? •Technical support: Is technology used to develop, record, deliver, receive and store project schedule model information and is it easily accessible?
10.2.3 Agile and adaptive methods
In large organizations, there may be a mix of small-scale and large-scale projects, requiring a long-term roadmap that is managed through scale parameters such as team size, physical distribution, regulatory compliance, organizational complexity, and technical complexity These portfolios and programs. Managing the full delivery lifecycle of large-scale, organization-wide systems may require a range of techniques, including predictive approaches, adaptive approaches, or a hybrid of the two. Organizations may also need to combine several core methods or adopt some of the principles and practices of already practiced methods. To successfully implement an adaptive approach, project managers need to understand how to use relevant tools and techniques effectively.
10.3 Planning progress management
Planning schedule management is the process of developing policies, procedures, and documents for planning, preparing, managing, executing, and controlling project schedules. The primary purpose of this process is to provide guidance and direction on how to manage the project schedule throughout the project. This process is performed only once or only at predefined points in the project.
The data flow of the planning progress management process is shown in Figure 10-1
subtopic
10.3.1 Input
1. Project Charter The overall milestone schedule specified in the project charter affects the project's schedule management.
2. Project Management Plan The project management plan components used in planning schedule management mainly include: • Development methods: Helps define scheduling methods, estimating techniques, scheduling tools, and techniques used to control schedules. •Scope Management Plan: Describes how the scope will be defined and developed, and provides information on how the schedule will be developed.
3. Business environment factors The business environment factors that can affect the planning progress management process mainly include: organizational culture and structure; Team resource availability, skills, and physical resource availability; Scheduling tools or software; Guidelines and standards for tailoring organizational standard processes and procedures to meet the specific requirements of a project; Commercial databases, such as standardized estimation data, etc.
4. Organizational process assets Organizational process assets that can affect the planning schedule management process mainly include: A knowledge base of historical information and lessons learned; Existing formal and informal policies, procedures and guidelines related to developing schedules and managing and controlling schedules; Templates and forms; Monitoring and reporting tools and more.
10.3.2 Tools and Techniques
1. Expert judgment During the planning progress management process, areas involved include: Preparation, management and control of schedule; Scheduling methods (such as predictive or adaptive life cycles); schedule planning software; The specific industry in which the project is located, etc.
2.Data analysis A data analysis technique suitable for use in the planning schedule management process is alternatives analysis. Analysis of alternatives can include determining which schedule methods to use and how to integrate the different methods into the project; it can also include determining the level of detail in the schedule, the duration of rolling planning, and the frequency of reviews and updates.
3.Meeting The project team may hold planning meetings to develop a schedule management plan. Participants may include project managers, project sponsors, project team members, selected stakeholders, schedule or execution leaders, and other necessary personnel.
10.3.3 Output
progress management plan The schedule management plan is an integral part of the project management plan and establishes criteria and clear activity requirements for the preparation, supervision and control of project progress. Depending on the needs of the project, a schedule management plan can be formal or informal, very detailed or highly general. The contents of the progress management plan generally include: •Project Schedule Model: The schedule planning methodology and tools used to develop the project schedule model need to be specified. • Schedule release and iteration lengths: When using an adaptive life cycle, fixed time periods for releases, planning, and iterations should be specified. A fixed time period refers to the duration during which the project team is steadily moving toward the goal. It can push the team to work on basic features first and then other features as time allows, thus minimizing scope creep. •Accuracy: Definition requires specifying acceptable intervals for activity duration estimates, as well as allowable contingency reserves. •Unit of measurement: The unit of measurement for each resource needs to be specified, for example, person-hours, person-days, or weeks to measure time, meters, liters, tons, kilometers, or cubic yards to measure quantity. •Work breakdown structure (WBS): Provides a framework for the schedule management plan and ensures coordination with estimates and corresponding schedules. •Project schedule model maintenance: It is necessary to specify how the project status will be updated in the schedule model during project execution and record the project progress. •Control thresholds: Deviation thresholds need to be specified for monitoring schedule performance. It is the maximum difference allowed before some action is required, usually expressed as a percentage deviation from the parameters in the baseline plan. •Performance Measurement Rules: Earned Value Management (EVM) rules or other rules for performance measurement need to be specified. •Report format: The format and frequency of preparation of various progress reports need to be specified.
10.4 Define activities
Defining activities is the process of identifying and recording the specific actions that need to be taken to complete the project deliverables. The main function of this process is to decompose the work package into schedule activities as the basis for schedule estimation, planning, execution, supervision and control of the project work. This process needs to be carried out throughout the project.
The data flow direction of defining the activity process is shown in Figure 10-2
subtopic
10.4.1 Input
1. Project management plan The project management plan components used in the definition activities mainly include: • Schedule Management Plan: Defines the schedule approach, the duration of rolling planning, and the level of detail required to manage the work. •Scope baseline: When defining activities, the project WBS, deliverables, constraints, and assumptions in the scope baseline need to be explicitly considered.
2. Business environment factors The business environment factors that affect the definition activity process mainly include: organizational culture and structure, business information published in business databases, project management information systems, etc.
3. Organizational process assets Organizational process assets that can affect the process of defining activities mainly include: •Lessons learned knowledge base, which contains historical information such as activity lists from previous similar projects. •Standardized processes. •Templates containing standard activity lists or partial activity lists from past projects. •Existing formal and informal policies, procedures and guidance related to activity planning, such as schedule planning methodologies, which should be taken into account when preparing activity definitions, etc.
10.4.2 Tools and Techniques
1. Expert judgment During the definition of activities, the professional opinions of individuals or groups with knowledge of previous similar projects and the current project should be sought.
2. Decompose Decomposition is a technique for progressively dividing the project scope and project deliverables into smaller, more manageable components. Each work package in the WBS needs to be broken down into activities so that the corresponding deliverables can be completed through these activities. Involving team members in the decomposition process helps get better, more accurate results. The WBS, WBS dictionary and activity list can be compiled sequentially or simultaneously, with the WBS and WBS dictionary being the basis for formulating the final activity list. Activities represent the input required to complete the work package. The final output of the defined activity process is the activity rather than the deliverables, which are the outputs of the process of creating the WBS.
3. Rolling planning Rolling planning is an iterative planning technique that details the work to be done in the near future while roughly planning future work at a higher level. It is a progressive and detailed planning method, suitable for work packages and planning packages. Therefore, the level of detail of the work will vary at different stages of the project life cycle. In the early strategic planning stages, when information is not clear enough, work packages can only be broken down to a known level of detail; later, as more information is learned, work packages to be implemented in the near future can be broken down into specific activities.
4.Meeting Face to face or virtual meetings, formal or informal meetings. Attendees can be team members or subject matter experts, and the purpose is to define the activities required to complete the work.
10.4.2 Output
1. Activity list The activity list contains the progress activities required for the project. For projects using rolling planning or agile techniques, the activity list is updated regularly as the project progresses. The activity list includes an identification of each activity and a detailed scope of work so that project team members know what needs to be accomplished.
2. Activity attributes •Activity attributes refer to the multiple attributes of each activity, which are used to expand the description of the activity. The activity attributes evolve and update with the progress of the project. •In the initial phase of the project, activity attributes include unique activity identification (ID), WBS identification and activity tag or name. •When the activity attributes are compiled, the activity attributes may include activity descriptions, predecessor activities, successor activities, logical relationships, lead and lag amounts, resource requirements, mandatory dates, constraints and assumptions. •Activity attributes can be used to identify where work is performed, to compile the project calendar where activities are performed, and the associated activity types. Activity attributes can also be used to develop schedules. Schedule activities can be selected, sorted, and categorized in reports in various ways based on activity attributes.
subtopic
3. Milestone List Milestones are important points or events in the project. The milestone list lists all milestones of the project and indicates whether each milestone is mandatory (such as required by the contract) or optional (such as determined based on historical information). Milestones have zero duration because they represent only one significant point in time or event.
4. Change request (propose changes if exceptions are found) Once the project's baseline is defined, in the process of progressively detailing the deliverables into activities, work may be discovered that does not originally belong to the project baseline. At this time, a change request needs to be made, and the change request is reviewed and implemented through the implementation of the overall change control process. deal with.
5. Project Management Plan (Updated) Any changes to the project management plan are raised in the form of a change request and processed through the organization's change control process. During the definition of activities, project management plan components that may require change requests include: • Schedule Baseline: Throughout the project, work packages are gradually refined into activities. During this process it may be discovered that work that was not originally part of the project baseline needs to be added, resulting in the need to modify delivery dates or other important schedule milestones. •Cost Baseline: After changes to schedule activities are approved, corresponding changes need to be made to the cost baseline.
10.5 Sequence activities
Sequencing activities is the process of identifying and documenting the relationships between project activities. The main purpose of this process is to define the logical sequence of work to achieve maximum efficiency given all project constraints. This process needs to be carried out throughout the project. The Sequencing Activities process is designed to convert a list of project activities into a diagram as the first step in publishing a progress baseline. Except for the first and last two items, each activity has at least one predecessor activity and one successor activity, and the logical relationship is appropriate. Designing logical relationships can support the creation of a realistic project schedule. It may be necessary to use leads or lags between activities to make the project schedule more realistic; this can be arranged using project management software, manual techniques, or automated techniques. Sequence of activities.
The data flow of the activity sequence process is shown in Figure 10-3.
10.5.1 Input
1. Project Management Plan The project management plan components used in sequencing activities include: •Schedule Management Plan: Specifies the method and accuracy for sequencing activities, as well as other required criteria. •Scope baseline: The project WBS, deliverables, constraints, and assumptions in the scope baseline need to be explicitly considered when sequencing activities.
2. Project documents Project documents that can be used as input to the activity sequencing process include: • Assumption log: This log records assumptions and constraints that may affect the way activities are sequenced, the relationships between activities, and lead and lag requirements, and may create a risk that affects the project schedule. •Activity attributes: may describe the inevitable sequence or determined immediate or immediate relationship between events, as well as the defined logical relationship between lead and lag amounts and activities. •Activity list: Lists all schedule activities required by the project to be sequenced. The dependencies and other constraints of these activities will affect the sequencing of activities. •Milestone List: This list may already list the dates when specific milestones will be achieved, which may affect how activities are sequenced.
3. Business environment factors Business environment factors that can affect the process of sequencing activities mainly include: government or industry standards, project management information systems, schedule planning tools, and the organization's work authorization system.
4. Organizational process assets Organizational process assets that can influence the process of sequencing activities include: Portfolio and program planning, and dependencies and relationships between projects; Existing formal and informal policies, procedures and guidelines related to event planning; Various templates to help speed up the preparation of project activity network diagrams. The templates will also include information about activity attributes that can help sequence activities; A lessons learned knowledge base that contains historical information to help optimize the sequencing process and more.
10.5.2 Tools and Techniques
1. Predecessor relationship drawing method Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM), also known as Precedence Diagramming Method, is a technique for creating progress models. Boxes or rectangles (called nodes) are used to represent activities, and the nodes are connected by arrows. Shows the logical relationships between nodes. This type of network diagram is also called a single-code network diagram (only nodes need to be numbered) or an Active On Node (AON) diagram.
Figure 10-4 Leading diagram method (single code network diagram)
PDM includes four dependencies or logical relationships, as shown in the figure, activities that precede a certain activity. A successor activity is an activity that follows an activity in the logical path of the schedule. These relationships are defined as:
Activity relationship types in Predecessor Diagramming Method (PDM)
Finish to start (FS): a logical relationship in which the successor activity can only start after the predecessor activity is completed. For example, installation of the operating system on the PC (successor activity) cannot begin until assembly of the PC hardware (predecessor activity) is completed.
Finish-to-finish (FF): A logical relationship in which the successor activity can be completed only when the predecessor activity is completed. For example, editing a file (successor activity) cannot be completed until the writing of the file (predecessor activity) is completed.
Start to Start (SS): A logical relationship in which the successor activity can only start if the predecessor activity starts. For example, leveling of concrete (successor activity) cannot be started until foundation pouring (predecessor activity) is started.
Start to Finish (SF): A logical relationship in which the successor activity can only be completed if the predecessor activity starts. For example, the old accounts payable system (successor activity) cannot be closed until a new accounts payable system is started (predecessor activity).
In PDM diagrams, FS is the most commonly used type of logical relationship; SF relationships are rarely used.
In the lead diagram method, each activity has a unique activity number, and each activity is marked with an estimated duration (the duration of the activity). Usually, the activity of each node will be as follows: •Earliest Start time (ES): The earliest time an activity can start. •Earliest Finish time (EF): The earliest time an activity can be completed. EF=ES construction period •Latest Start time (LS): The latest time an activity must start in order for the project to be completed on time. •Latest Finish time (LF): The latest time an activity must be completed in order for the project to be completed on time. LS=LF-construction period
2. Arrow diagram method
Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM) is a network diagram drawing method that uses arrows to represent activities and nodes to represent events, as shown in Figure 10-7. This kind of network diagram is also called a double-coded network diagram (nodes and arrows are numbered) or an Active On the Arrow diagram (Active On the Arrow, AOA).
In the arrow chart method, there are three basic principles: ① Each activity and event in the network diagram must have a unique code name, that is, there will not be the same code name in the network diagram; ② At least one of the codes of the preceding event and the following event of any two activities is different, and the node codes are getting larger and larger along the direction of the arrow; ③Activities that flow into (or flow out of) the same node have a common successor activity (or predecessor activity).
Figure 10-7 Arrow diagram method (double code network diagram)
Why are there virtual activities?
1. For the convenience of drawing, an additional, special activity is artificially introduced in the arrow diagram, called virtual activity (dmnmy activity), which is represented by a dotted arrow line in the network diagram.
2. Virtual activities do not consume time or resources, but are just to make up for the shortcomings of arrow diagrams in expressing activity dependencies.
3. With the help of virtual activities, we can express the relationship between activities better and more clearly, as shown in the figure below.
Note: Activities A and B can be carried out at the same time; activity C can only start after activities A and B are completed.
3. Determine and integrate dependencies Dependencies may be mandatory or optional, internal or external. The four dependencies include:
Mandatory dependency: Mandatory dependency is a dependency required by law or contract or determined by the inherent nature of the work, also known as a hard logical relationship or a hard dependency. Mandatory dependencies are often related to objective constraints. For example, in a construction project, the ground structure can be erected only after the foundation has been built; in an electronics project, a prototype must be built before it can be tested. During the activity sequencing process, the project team should clarify which relationships are mandatory dependencies and should not confuse mandatory dependencies with schedule constraints in the schedule preparation tool.
Selective dependencies: Selective dependencies are sometimes called soft logical relationships. Selective dependencies should be created based on best practices for the specific application area or the sequence of activities required by the special nature of the project. For example, it is generally accepted best practice that during construction, sanitary plumbing work should be completed before electrical work can begin. This order is not mandatory and the two projects can be worked on simultaneously (in parallel), but working in sequence can reduce overall project risk. In the process of sequencing activities, the project team should clarify which dependencies are optional and fully document selective dependencies, because they will affect the total float and constrain subsequent schedules. If you plan to follow up quickly, you should review the corresponding optional dependencies and consider whether they need to be adjusted or removed.
External dependencies: External dependencies are dependencies between project activities and non-project activities, which are often outside the control of the project team. For example, testing activities for a software project depend on the arrival of external hardware; site preparation for a construction project may not begin until after a government environmental hearing; during the process of sequencing activities, the project management team should clarify which dependencies are external dependencies relation.
Internal dependencies: Internal dependencies are immediate relationships between project activities that are usually within the control of the project team. For example, the team cannot test the machine until it is assembled, which is an internal mandatory dependency. In the process of sequencing activities, the project management team should identify which dependencies are internal.
4. Advance and lag The advance amount is the amount of time that the immediately following activity can be advanced relative to the immediately preceding activity. The advance amount is generally expressed as a negative value. The lag amount is the amount of time that the immediately following activity needs to be postponed relative to the immediately preceding activity. The lag amount is generally expressed as a positive value. For example, in a new office building construction project, the division of landscape architecture can start 2 weeks before the completion of the final work list; for a large technical document, the writing team can start editing the draft document 15 days after the writing work begins, as shown in Figure 10-9 shown. The project management team should identify which dependencies require lead or lag in order to accurately represent the logical relationship between activities.
Figure 10-9 Example of advance and lag
5. Project management information system. Project management information systems used in the process of sequencing activities are project management information system software that help in planning, organizing, and adjusting the sequence of activities, inserting logical relationships, lead and lag values, and distinguishing between different types of dependencies.
10.5.3 Output
1. Project progress network diagram The project schedule network diagram is a graph that represents the logical relationships (also called dependencies) between project schedule activities. The following figure is an example of a project schedule network diagram. The project schedule network diagram can be drawn manually or with the help of project management software, and can include all details of the project or list only one or more general activities. The project schedule network diagram should be accompanied by a brief text description describing the basic method used to sequence activities. Any unusual sequences of activity should also be detailed in the text description. •Activities with multiple predecessor activities represent path convergence, while activities with multiple successor activities represent path branching. •Activities with convergence and branching are affected by or can affect multiple activities, so there is a greater risk.
Figure 10-10 is an example of a project progress network diagram
2 project files (updated) Project documents that can be updated during the sequencing of activities process include: •Activity attributes: may describe the inevitable sequence or determined immediate or immediate relationship between events, as well as the defined logical relationship between lead and lag amounts and activities. •Activity List: When sequencing activities, the activity list may be affected by changes in project activity relationships. • Assumption log: Depending on the sequencing of activities, the determination of relationships, and the lead and lag amounts, the assumptions and constraints in the assumption log may need to be updated and may create a risk that will affect the project schedule. •Milestone List: When sequencing activities, the planned achievement dates for specific milestones may be affected by changes in the relationships between project activities.
10.6 Estimating activity resources
Estimating activity duration is the process of estimating the number of work periods required to complete a single activity based on the results of resource estimation. The main purpose of this process is to determine the amount of time required to complete each activity. This process needs to be carried out throughout the project.
Figure 10-11 Data flow diagram of the process of estimating activity duration
Factors to consider when estimating duration include: •The Law of Diminishing Returns: While keeping other factors constant, adding a factor (such as resources) used to determine the input required for unit output will eventually reach a critical point, and the output or output after this point will increase with time. decreases as this factor increases. •Number of resources: Increasing the number of resources, for example, doubling the resources may not necessarily shorten the time to complete the work by half, because investing resources may increase additional risks. For example, if too many activity resources are added, there may be delays due to knowledge transfer and learning curve. , additional cooperation and other related factors that increase the duration. •Technological Advances: Technological advancement factors may play an important role in determining duration estimates. For example, by sourcing the latest technology, a manufacturing facility can increase production, which may impact duration and resource requirements. •Employee Motivation: Project managers also need to understand procrastination and Parkinson's Law. The former points out that people only go all out at the last moment, that is, when the deadline is approaching; the latter points out that as long as there is still time, the work will continue to expand until all the time is used up. All data and assumptions on which activity duration estimates are based should be documented.
subtopic
10.6.1 Input
1. Project management plan The project management plan components used mainly include: •Schedule Management Plan: Specifies the methods and accuracy used to estimate activity durations, as well as other required criteria. • Scope baseline: Contains the WBS and WBS dictionary, the latter including technical details that may affect effort and duration estimates.
2.Project files Project documents that can be used as input to the estimating activity duration process include: • Assumption log: It records assumptions and constraints that may generate a risk that will affect the project schedule. •Risk Register: Individual project risks may impact resource selection and availability. •Activity attributes: may describe determined predecessor or successor relationships, defined leads and lags, and logical relationships between activities that may affect duration estimates. • Activity list: Lists all schedule activities required for the project to be estimated. The dependencies and other constraints of these activities will affect the duration estimate. •Milestone List: Planned achievement dates for specific milestones may have been listed, which may affect duration estimates. • Lessons Learned Register: A Lessons Learned Register related to effort and duration estimates can be used in subsequent phases of the project to improve the accuracy of effort and duration estimates. •Resource requirements: The estimated resource requirements for an activity will have an impact on the duration of the activity. For most activities, the availability of allocated resources will have a significant impact on their duration. • Resource breakdown structure: It provides a hierarchical structure of identified resources by resource category and resource type. • Resource Calendar: Resource availability, resource type and resource nature all affect the duration of schedule activities. The resource calendar specifies when and how long specific project resources will be available during the project. •Project Team Dispatch Order: This dispatch order assigns the right people to the team to staff the project.
3. Business environment factors Business environment factors that can affect the process of estimating activity duration mainly include: duration estimation database and other reference data, productivity measurement indicators, published business information, location of team members, etc.
4. Organizational process assets Organizational process assets that can affect the process of estimating activity duration mainly include: historical information about duration, project calendar, estimation policy, schedule planning methodology, lessons learned knowledge base, etc.
10.6.2 Tools and Techniques
1. Expert judgment In the process of estimating activity durations, areas involved include: preparation, management, and control of schedules; expertise in estimating; and subject or application knowledge.
2. Analogous estimation Analogous estimating is a technique that uses historical data from similar activities or projects to estimate the duration or cost of a current activity or project. Analogous estimating is based on parameter values of similar past projects (such as duration, budget, size, weight, complexity, etc.) to estimate similar parameters or indicators for current and future projects. This is a rough estimating method that sometimes needs to be adjusted for known differences in project complexity. Analog estimating is often used to estimate project duration when project details are insufficient. Analogous estimating is generally less expensive and less time-consuming than other estimating techniques, but it is also less accurate. Analogous estimating can be done for an entire project or a portion of a project, or it can be used in conjunction with other estimating methods. Analogous estimates will be more reliable if past activities are similar in nature rather than superficially, and if the project team members working on the estimates have the necessary expertise.
3. Parameter estimation Parametric estimating is an estimating technique that uses algorithms to calculate cost or duration based on historical data and project parameters. It refers to the use of statistical relationships between historical data and other variables (such as square footage in building construction) to estimate activity parameters such as cost, budget, and duration. Duration can be calculated by multiplying the amount of work to be performed by the number of man-hours required to complete the unit of work. The accuracy of parameter estimation depends on the maturity of the parameter model and the reliability of the underlying data. Parametric estimating can be for the entire project or a portion of the project, and can be used in conjunction with other estimating methods.
analogy estimation The analogy estimation method is suitable for evaluating some projects that are similar to historical projects in terms of application fields, environment, complexity, etc., and obtains scale estimates by comparing new projects with historical projects. The basic steps are: (1) Sort out the project function list and the code to implement each function. (2) Identify the similarities and differences between each function and historical projects. (3) Obtain the estimated value of each function through (1) and (2). (4) Generate size estimates.
parameter estimation Parametric estimating is an estimating technique that uses a certain algorithm to calculate cost or duration based on historical data and project parameters. The simplest parameter estimation is a linear equation of one variable, which is to calculate the activity duration by multiplying the amount of work to be performed by the number of hours required to complete the unit amount of work.
4. Three-point estimate When historical data are insufficient, the accuracy of activity duration estimates can be improved by accounting for uncertainty and risk in the estimate. Use a three-point estimate to help define an approximate range for activity duration: •Optimistic Time (TO): The time to complete a certain task when everything goes well. •Most likely Time (TM): Under normal circumstances, the time it takes to complete a certain task. •Pessimistic Time (TP): The time to complete a certain task under the most unfavorable circumstances. The expected duration TE can be calculated based on the assumed distribution of durations within the three estimate intervals.
5. Bottom-up estimation Bottom-up estimating is a method of estimating project duration or cost by aggregating estimates from the WBS components layer by layer from bottom to top. If activity duration cannot be estimated with reasonable confidence, the work in the activity should be further refined, the duration of the detailed work should be estimated, and then the duration of each activity should be aggregated. If there are dependencies between activities that affect resource utilization, the corresponding resource usage should be explained and recorded in the activity resource requirements.
subtopic
6. Data analysis Data analysis techniques that can be used as a process for estimating activity duration include: •Alternatives Analysis: Alternatives analysis is used to compare different resource capabilities or skill levels, schedule compression techniques, different tools (manual and automated), and decisions regarding resource creation, leasing, and purchase. This helps the team weigh resource, cost, and duration variables to determine the best way to complete the project work. •Reserve Analysis: Reserve analysis is used to determine the amount of contingency reserves and management reserves required for the project. ① Contingency reserve: When estimating the duration, the uncertainty in the response progress of the contingency reserve must be considered. The contingency reserve is a period of time included in the schedule baseline. The contingency reserve is related to "known-unknown" risks and is used to deal with the identified risks that have been accepted. The contingency reserve can be a certain percentage of the activity duration estimate or a certain For a fixed period of time, the emergency reserve can also be separated from each activity and then summarized. Contingency reserves should be clearly outlined in project progress documents and can be drawn down, reduced, or eliminated as project information becomes clearer. ② Management reserve: Management reserve is a project budget specially set aside for the purpose of management control to deal with unforeseen work within the project scope. Management reserves are used to address "unknown-to-unknown" risks that can affect the project and are not included in the schedule baseline but are part of the total project duration. Depending on the terms of the contract, use of management reserves may require changes to the schedule baseline.
7.Decision making A decision-making technique suitable for the process of estimating activity duration is voting. Show of hands is a form derived from the voting method and is often used in agile projects.
8.Meeting The project team may meet to estimate activity duration.
10.6.3 Output
1. Duration estimation A duration estimate is a quantitative assessment of the number of work periods required to complete an activity, phase, or project. It does not include any lag, but it does indicate a certain range of variation. For example: 2 weeks ± 2 days, indicating that the activity requires at least 8 days and no more than 12 days (assuming a 5-day work week).
2. Basis for estimation The amount and type of supporting information required for duration estimates vary between application areas. Regardless of its level of detail, supporting documentation should clearly and completely describe how the duration estimate was derived. Supporting information for duration estimates may include: •Documentation of the basis for the estimate (ie how the estimate was prepared). •Documentation of all assumptions. •Documentation of known constraints. • A description of the estimate interval (such as “±10%”) to indicate the interval within which the expected duration lies. •A statement of the confidence level in the final estimate. •Documentation of individual project risks affecting estimates, etc.
3. Project files (updated) Project documents that can be updated during the estimating activity duration process include: •Activity Properties: The activity duration estimate output by this process is recorded in the activity properties. • Assumption Log: When updating the Assumption Log, include the assumptions developed to estimate duration, in addition to constraints imposed by the schedule methodology and scheduling tools. • Lessons Learned Register: When updating the Lessons Learned Register, techniques that can effectively and efficiently estimate effort and duration can be added.
10.7 Develop a progress plan
Developing a schedule plan is a process of analyzing activity sequence, duration, resource requirements and schedule constraints, and creating a schedule model to implement project execution and monitoring. The main purpose of this process is to develop a schedule model with planned dates for completing project activities. This process needs to be carried out throughout the project.
The data flow of the schedule planning process is shown in Figure 10-12.
Key steps in developing a schedule: •Determine project milestones, identify and sequence activities, estimate duration, and determine activity start and completion dates. •Review of assigned activities by project personnel assigned to each activity. •Project staff confirms the validity of planned dates by confirming that start and finish dates do not conflict with resource calendars and other projects or tasks. •Analyze the schedule to determine whether there are logical relationship conflicts and whether resource balancing is required before approving the schedule and using it as a baseline, and simultaneously revise and maintain the project schedule model to ensure that the schedule is feasible throughout the entire project.
subtopic
10.7.1 Input
1. Project management plan The project management plan components used in developing schedules mainly include: •Progress management plan: Specifies the schedule preparation methods and tools used to develop the schedule, as well as the method for deriving the schedule. •Scope Baseline: The scope statement, WBS, and WBS dictionary contain detailed information about the project deliverables for reference when creating the schedule model.
2.Project files Project documents that can be used as input to the schedule planning process mainly include: •Assumption log: This log records assumptions and constraints that may cause individual project risks that affect the project schedule. •Risk Register: records the details and characteristics of all identified risks that affect the schedule model. The schedule reserve reflects the risk information related to the schedule through the expected or average risk impact degree. •Activity properties: Provides the details needed to create a schedule model. •Activity List: Identifies the activities that need to be included in the schedule model. •Milestone List: Lists the dates by which specific milestones will be achieved. •Project schedule network diagram: Contains the logical relationship between the preceding and following activities used to calculate the schedule. • Basis of estimate: The amount and type of supporting information required for duration estimates will vary by application area. Regardless of its level of detail, supporting documentation should clearly and completely describe how the duration estimate was derived. •Duration estimation: includes a quantitative assessment of the number of work periods required to complete an activity and is used for projecting schedules. • Lessons Learned: A register of lessons learned associated with creating the schedule model can be applied to later stages of the project to increase the effectiveness of the schedule model. •Resource Requirements: Activity resource requirements specify the type and quantity of resources required for the activity and are used to create the schedule model. •Project team dispatch work order: clarifies the resources assigned to each activity. •Resource Calendar: Specifies resource availability during the project.
3. Agreement Suppliers provide input into the project schedule when developing how project work will be performed to meet contractual commitments.
4. Business environment factors Business environment factors that can affect the schedule planning process include: government or industry standards, communication channels, etc.
5. Organizational process assets Organizational process assets that can affect the process of developing schedules mainly include: schedule planning methodology, which includes the policies that should be followed when developing and maintaining schedule models; project calendars, etc.
10.7.2 Tools and Techniques
1. Progress network analysis Schedule network analysis is a comprehensive technique for creating project schedule models: ① When multiple paths converge or diverge at the same point in time, evaluate the necessity of aggregating progress reserves to reduce the possibility of falling behind; ② Review the network to see if there are high-risk activities or activities with a large lead time on the critical path, and whether it is necessary to use schedule reserves or implement risk response plans to reduce the risk of the critical path. Schedule network analysis is an iterative process that continues until a feasible schedule model is created.
2. Critical path method The critical path method is used to estimate the minimum duration of the project in the schedule model and determine the schedule flexibility of the logical network path. The critical path method has two rules: Rule 1: The earliest start time of an activity must be the same as or later than the latest time directly pointing to the earliest end time of this activity; Rule 2: The latest end time of an activity must be the same as or earlier than the earliest time of the latest start time of all activities directly pointed to by the activity.
subtopic
subtopic
subtopic
Calculation steps: ① Push forward from front to back, and add as many as you see. If there is a convergence node, take the larger value. ② Push forward and backward, and reduce the number when you see it. If there is a convergence node, take the smaller value.
Calculation steps: Push forward from front to back and add as many as you see. If there is a convergence node, take the larger value.
Calculation steps: Work backwards from back to front, and reduce the number when you see it. If there is a convergence node, take the smaller value.
Calculation steps: ① Push forward from front to back, and add as many numbers as you see. If there are convergence nodes, take the larger value. ② Work backward from back to front, and reduce the number when you see it. If there is a convergence node, take the smaller value.
The amount of time an activity can be postponed or delayed from the earliest start time without delaying the completion time of the project. This amount of time is the flexibility of the activity, which is the total float time here or the total time difference. For example, activity C has an earliest start time of 2 and a latest start time of 7. Therefore, it can be seen that activity C can have a flexible time of 5 days and can start on the 7th day without affecting the total project duration. It can also be seen that the total time difference of activity C is 5 days. The total float is calculated as: the latest finish time of this activity minus the earliest finish time of this activity, or the latest start time of this activity minus the earliest start time of this activity, or the critical path duration minus the The longest path to the activity. The total float of activities on the critical path is zero. Another concept is free float time or free time difference. Free float time means that an activity can be postponed or delayed from the earliest start time without delaying the earliest start time of any subsequent activities and without violating schedule constraints. amount of time. Free float is calculated as the minimum of the earliest start time of the immediately following activity minus the earliest end time of this activity. For example, the total floating time of activity D in my picture is 155 days, and the free floating time is 0.
Critical Path Method (CPM)
Total float: The amount of time a schedule activity can be pushed back or delayed from its earliest start date without delaying the project completion date or violating schedule constraints. This is total float. Total float is calculated as the latest finish time for this activity minus the earliest finish time for this activity, or the latest start time for this activity minus the earliest start time for this activity. Free float time: refers to the amount of time that a schedule activity can be postponed without delaying the earliest start date of any successor activity or violating schedule constraints. The calculation method is: the minimum value of the earliest start time of the successor activity Subtract the earliest completion time for this activity. For example, in Figure 10-14, activity D has a total float of 155 days and a free float of 0 days. A progress network diagram may have multiple critical paths. To keep the total float of a network path to zero or positive, you might need to adjust activity duration (when resources can be added or scope reduced), logical relationships (when targeting selective dependencies), lead and lag amounts, or other schedule adjustments Constraints.
3. Resource optimization Resource optimization technology is a technology that adjusts the schedule model based on resource supply and demand. Resource optimization is used to adjust the start and finish dates of activities to adjust the resources planned to be used so that they are equal to or less than the available resources, including: (1) resource balancing, (2) resource smoothing.
•If a resource is allocated to two or more activities within the same period, resource balancing is required. •For example, in Figure 10-15, if activities B and C can only be completed by engineer Xiao Wang, then Xiao Wang needs to complete B on the second and third days, and also needs to complete C on the second day. At this time Xiao Wang's work will be overloaded and resources need to be balanced. The work arrangement after balancing is as shown in Figure 10-16. •The project in Figure 10-15 takes 4 days to complete. After resource balancing, it takes 5 days to complete. Therefore, resource balancing often causes the critical path to change, and usually extends the critical path.
•Relative to resource balancing, resource smoothing will not change the critical path of the project and the completion date will not be delayed. That is, activities are delayed only within their free and total float time, but resource smoothing techniques may not achieve optimization of all resources. •For example, in Figure 10-17, if both activities B and D need to be completed by Xiao Wang, at this time, Xiao Wang needs to complete B and D at the same time on the second day, and the work will be overloaded, because the critical path is A-B-C- F and D are not on the critical path and can have a total floating time of one day, so resource smoothing technology can be used to adjust D. The adjusted work schedule is shown in Figure 10-18. •Since D has a total floating time of one day, the D activity can be scheduled on the third day through the lag amount, which avoids the problem of excessive resource load for Xiao Wang on the second day and does not affect the overall construction period.
4.Data analysis Data analysis techniques that can be used in the schedule planning process mainly include: •What-if scenario analysis: is the evaluation of various scenarios to predict their impact (positive or negative) on project objectives. What-if scenario analysis is to analyze questions such as "What will happen if scenario X occurs?" That is, based on the existing schedule, various scenarios are considered. Based on the results of what-if scenario analysis, the feasibility of the project schedule under different conditions can be evaluated, and schedule reserves and response plans can be prepared to deal with the impact of unexpected situations. •Simulation: is a method of modeling other sources of risk and uncertainty on a single project to assess their potential impact on project objectives. The most common simulation technique is Monte Carlo analysis, which uses risks and other uncertain resources to calculate possible schedule outcomes for the entire project. Simulation involves calculating a variety of possible work package durations based on many different activity assumptions, constraints, risks, problems, or scenarios, using probability distributions and other representations of uncertainty.
5. Advance and lag Lead and lag is an adjustment method used in network analysis to prepare a realistic schedule by adjusting the start time of successor activities. Lead is used to start successor activities earlier if conditions permit; lag is used to add a period of natural time between predecessor and successor activities that does not require work or resources, subject to certain constraints.
6. Progress compression Schedule compression technology refers to shortening or accelerating the schedule duration to meet schedule constraints, mandatory dates, or other schedule goals without reducing the project scope. Progress compression techniques include: • Rush work: It is a technique to compress the schedule and duration at the minimum cost by adding resources. Examples of rush work include approving overtime, adding additional resources, or paying rush fees to expedite activities on the critical path. Rushing only applies to activities on the critical path whose duration can be shortened by adding resources. However, rushing is not always practical as it may lead to increased risks and/or costs. • Fast tracking: is a schedule compression technique in which activities or phases that normally occur in sequence are performed at least partially in parallel. For example, construction of the foundation begins before the building's architectural drawings are fully completed. Fast tracking can result in rework and increased risk, so it is only suitable if the project duration on the critical path can be shortened by parallel activities. Using lead times to accelerate schedules often increases coordination between related activities and increases quality risks. Fast tracking also has the potential to increase project costs.
7. Plan review technology Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), also known as three-point estimation technique, is based on the assumption that the project duration and the entire project completion time are random and obey a certain probability distribution. PERT can estimate the probability that the entire project will be completed within a certain time. PERT and CPM are widely used in project schedule planning. This article uses examples to illustrate this technology.
1. Time estimation of activities PERT estimates the completion time of each project activity according to three different situations: •Optimistic Time (To): The time to complete a certain task when everything goes well. •Most likely time (TM): Under normal circumstances, the time to complete a certain task. •Pessimistic Time (TP): The time to complete a certain task under the most unfavorable circumstances.
Assuming that the three estimates follow a beta distribution, the expected ti for each activity can be calculated: Among them, ai represents the optimistic time of the i-th activity; mi represents the most likely time of the i-th activity; bi represents the pessimistic time of the i-th activity.
According to the variance calculation method of β distribution, the duration variance of the i-th activity is:
For example, the construction of a government OA system can be decomposed into four activities: demand analysis, design and coding, testing, and installation and deployment. Each activity is carried out in sequence without overlap in time. The estimated completion time of the activities is shown in Figure 10-19.
Expected duration, variance and standard deviation of each activity:
(2) Project cycle estimation. PERT believes that the completion time of the entire project is the sum of the completion times of each activity and obeys a normal distribution. The mathematical expectation T and variance σ of the entire project completion time t are respectively equal to:
The standard deviation is:
Based on this, the normal distribution curve can be drawn as shown in Figure 10-20.
Because Figure 10-20 is a normal curve, according to the normal distribution law, the probability of completion within the ±σ range, that is, between 46.7 days and 55.3 days, is 68%; Within ±2σ. The probability of completion within the range, that is, between 42.4 days and 59.6 days, is 95%; Within ±3σ. The probability of completion within the range of 38.1 days to 63.9 days is 99%. If the customer requires completion within 39 days, the probability of completion is about 0.5%, almost zero. In other words, the project has an incompressible minimum period, which is an objective law.
Possibility to complete probability estimation
You don't need to master the normal distribution table, just remember the probability within three standard deviations. By looking up the standard normal distribution table, you can get the probability that the entire project will be completed within a certain period of time. For example, if the customer requires completion within 60 days, the probability of possible completion is:
If the customer requests an additional 7 days in advance, the probability of completion is:
Probability of plus or minus 1 standard deviation =68.3% The probability of plus or minus 2 times the standard deviation =95.5% The probability of plus or minus 3 times the standard deviation =99.7%
The area represented by 50%
The area represented by 68.26%/2
50% (68.26%/2)=84.13% of the area represented
8. Project management information system Project management information systems include schedule planning software that speeds up the schedule development process by automatically generating start and finish dates using activities, network diagrams, resource requirements, and activity durations as inputs.
9. Agile or adaptive release planning Agile or adaptive release planning provides a high-level release schedule timeline (usually 3 to 6 months) based on the project roadmap and product development vision. The number of iterations or sprints for a release is also determined, allowing the product owner and team to decide what needs to be developed and how long it will take to reach product release based on business goals, dependencies, and impediments. To the customer, product features are value, so this timeline defines the features delivered at the end of each iteration, providing a more understandable project schedule that is the information customers really need.
10.7.3 Output
1. Progress benchmark A schedule baseline is an approved schedule model that can be changed only through a formal change control process and is used as a basis for comparison with actual results. Subject to acceptance and approval by stakeholders, the schedule baseline includes a baseline start date and a baseline end date. During the monitoring process, actual start and finish dates are compared to the approved baseline dates to determine if deviations exist. The schedule baseline is an integral part of the project management plan.
2. Project schedule •Bar chart: Bar chart, also known as "Gantt chart", is a chart method for displaying progress information. In a horizontal bar chart, activities are listed vertically, dates are listed horizontally, and horizontal bars are used to represent the duration of activities from the start date to the completion date. Bar charts are relatively easy to read and are commonly used. •Milestone Chart: A milestone chart is similar to a bar chart, but only plots planned start or completion dates for major deliverables and key external interfaces. •Project schedule network diagram: Project schedule network diagram is usually drawn using the activity node method, without time scale, purely showing activities and their interrelationships. The project schedule network diagram can also be a schedule network diagram that includes time scales, called a "timescale diagram."
Figure 10-21 Example of time plot
Figure 10-22 shows the three forms of schedule plans and the relationship between these three different levels of schedule plans: ① Milestone schedule plan, also called milestone chart. ② Summary schedule plan, also called horizontal bar chart. ③ Detailed progress plan, also called project progress network diagram.
milestone chart
bar chart
Project progress network diagram
3. Progress data The schedule data in the project schedule model is a collection of information used to describe and control the schedule. Schedule data at least include schedule milestones, schedule activities, activity attributes, and all known assumptions and constraints, while other required data vary depending on the application domain. Information that can often be used as supporting details includes: •Resource requirements listed by time period are often represented by resource histograms. •Alternative schedules, such as best-case or worst-case schedules, resource-balanced or non-resource-balanced schedules, schedules with or without mandatory dates. •Used progress reserves, etc. Schedule data can also include resource histograms, cash flow forecasts, and other relevant information such as ordering and delivery schedules.
4. Project Calendar Specifying the available workdays and work shifts in the project calendar during which schedule activities can be performed distinguishes the time periods (in days or smaller units of time) that are available for performing schedule activities from the time periods that are not available. Within a schedule model, you may need to use more than one project calendar to plan the project schedule because some activities require different work periods. Therefore, the project calendar may need to be updated.
5. Change Request After modifications to the project scope or project schedule, change requests may be made to the scope baseline and/or other components of the project management plan and should be reviewed and handled through the implementation of an overall change control process.
6. Project Management Plan (Updated) Any changes to the project management plan are raised in the form of a change request and processed through the organization's change control process. Project management plan components that may require change requests include: • Schedule Management Plan: Update the schedule management plan to reflect changes in the way the schedule is developed and managed. •Cost Baseline: After changes to scope, resources, or cost estimates are approved, corresponding changes need to be made to the cost baseline. Sometimes cost deviations are so severe that the cost baseline needs to be revised to provide a realistic basis for performance measurement.
7. Project files (updated) Project documents that can be updated during the schedule planning process mainly include: • Activity attributes: Update activity attributes to reflect changes to resource requirements and other related content that occur during the development of the schedule. • Assumption log: The assumption log may need to be updated to reflect changes in assumptions about duration, resource usage, sequencing, or other information that are discovered when creating the schedule model. •Duration estimates: The quantity and availability of resources and activity dependencies may cause changes in duration estimates. If resource balancing analysis changes resource requirements, duration estimates may need to be updated accordingly. • Lessons Learned Register: When updating the Lessons Learned Register, techniques that enable effective and efficient progress modeling can be added. •Resource requirements: Resource leveling can have a significant impact on initial estimates of the types and quantities of resources required. If the resource balancing analysis changes the resource requirements, the resource requirements need to be updated accordingly. •Risk Register: The risk register may need to be updated to reflect opportunities or threats implied by schedule assumptions.
10.8 Controlling progress
Controlling schedule is the process of monitoring project status to update project progress and manage changes to the schedule baseline. The primary purpose of this process is to maintain the schedule baseline throughout the project. This process occurs throughout the project.
The data flow of the progress control process is shown in Figure 10-23
subtopic
10.8.1 Input
1. Project Management Plan The project management plan components used in controlling progress mainly include: •Schedule management plan: describes the frequency of schedule updates, how the schedule reserve is used, and how the schedule is controlled. •Progress Baseline: Compare the progress baseline with actual results to determine whether changes need to be made or corrective or preventive actions taken. •Scope Baseline: When monitoring the progress baseline, the project WBS, deliverables, constraints, and assumptions in the scope baseline need to be explicitly considered. •Performance measurement baseline: When using earned value analysis, the performance measurement baseline is compared with actual results to determine whether changes, corrective actions, or preventive actions are necessary.
2. Project documents Project documents used as input to the progress control process mainly include: •Resource Calendar: Shows the availability of team and physical resources. •Project schedule: is the latest version of the project schedule. •Project Calendar: In a schedule model, more than one project calendar may be needed to forecast project progress because some activities require different work periods. •Progress data: Progress data needs to be reviewed and updated during the progress control process. • Lessons Learned Register: Lessons learned early in the project can be applied to later stages to improve progress control.
3. Job performance data Work performance data contains data about the status of the project, such as which activities have been started, how they are progressing (such as actual duration, remaining duration, and actual percent complete), and which activities have been completed.
4. Organizational process assets Organizational process assets that can affect the progress control process mainly include: existing formal and informal policies, procedures and guidelines related to progress control; progress control tools; available monitoring and reporting methods, etc.
10.8.2 Tools and Techniques
1.Data analysis Data analysis techniques that can be used to control the progress process mainly include: • Earned value analysis: Schedule performance measures such as schedule variance (SV) and schedule performance index (SPI) are used to evaluate the degree of deviation from the initial schedule baseline. •Iteration Burndown Chart: This type of chart is used to track the work that remains to be completed in the iteration backlog. It analyzes deviations from an ideal burndown chart. Predictive trend lines can be used to predict possible deviations at the end of an iteration, as well as reasonable actions that should be taken during the iteration. In the burndown chart, a diagonal line is first used to represent the ideal burnout situation, and then the actual remaining work is drawn every day. Finally, a trend line is calculated based on the remaining work to predict the completion situation, as shown in Figure 10-24. •Performance Review: Refers to measuring, comparing, and analyzing schedule performance against schedule baselines such as actual start and finish dates, percent completed, and remaining duration of current work. •Trend Analysis: Examine project performance over time to determine whether performance is improving or deteriorating. Graphical analysis techniques help understand performance to date and compare it to future performance targets, expressed as completion dates. •Deviation analysis: Focus on the deviation of actual start and finish dates from the plan, the difference between the actual duration and the plan, and the deviation of the float time. It includes determining the cause and extent of deviations from the schedule baseline, assessing the impact of these deviations on future work, and determining whether corrective or preventive action is required. •What-if scenario analysis: Based on the output of the project risk management process, various scenarios are evaluated to ensure that the schedule model conforms to the project management plan and approved baselines.
2. Critical path method Checking the progress of the critical path helps determine the project progress status. Deviations on the critical path will have a direct impact on the project's end date. Evaluating the progress of activities on the sub-critical path can help identify schedule risks.
3. Project management information system Project management information systems include schedule planning tools and software that can track actual dates against planned dates, report deviations and progress against schedule baselines, and predict the impact of changes to the project schedule model.
4. Resource optimization Resource optimization techniques are schedule planning of activities and the resources required by the activities while taking into account both resource availability and project time.
5. Advance and lag Adjust leads and lags in network analysis to try to bring lagging project activities back up to plan.
6. Progress compression Use schedule compression techniques to bring project activities that are behind schedule up to schedule, and you can use fast follow-up or rush methods for the remaining work.
10.8.3 Output
1. Job performance information Work performance information includes how project work is being performed compared to schedule baselines. Start and finish date deviations as well as duration deviations can be calculated at the work package level and at the control account level. For projects using earned value analysis, schedule variance (SV) and schedule performance index (SPI) will be recorded in work performance reports.
2. Progress forecast Schedule forecast refers to the estimation or prediction of future project conditions and events based on existing information and knowledge. As the project executes, schedule forecasts should be updated and reissued based on work performance information, expected future performance based on corrective or preventive actions, which may include an earned value performance index, and schedule reserves that may impact the project in the future. information.
3. Change request Change requests may be made to the schedule baseline, scope baseline, and/or other components of the project management plan by analyzing schedule deviations, reviewing progress reports, performance measurements, and project scope or schedule adjustments. Change requests should be reviewed and processed through the implementation of an overall change control process.
4. Project Management Plan (Updated) Any changes to the project management plan are raised in the form of a change request and processed through the organization's change control process. Project management plan components that may require changes include: • Schedule management plan: The schedule management plan may need to be updated to reflect changes in schedule management methods. • Schedule Baseline: Approval of changes to the project scope, activity resources, or activity duration estimates may require changes to the schedule baseline. In addition, the schedule baseline may also need to be updated when changes occur due to schedule compression techniques or performance issues. •Cost Baseline: After changes to scope, resources, or cost estimates are approved, corresponding changes need to be made to the cost baseline. •Performance Measurement Baseline: After changes to scope, schedule performance, or cost estimates are approved, corresponding changes to the performance measurement baseline need to be made. Sometimes performance deviations are so severe that a change request is required to revise the performance measurement baseline to provide a realistic and feasible basis for performance measurement.
5. Project files (updated) Project documents that can be updated during the progress control process mainly include: •Assumption Log: Schedule performance may indicate the need to revise assumptions about activity sequencing, duration, and productivity. •Estimation Basis: Schedule performance may indicate the need to modify the way durations are estimated. •Lessons Learned Register: Update the Lessons Learned Register to record effective techniques for maintaining schedule, as well as the causes of deviations and corrective actions used to address schedule deviations. •Project schedule plan: Substitute the updated schedule data into the schedule model and generate an updated project schedule plan to reflect schedule changes and effectively manage the project. • Resource Calendar: Update resource calendars to reflect resource calendar changes due to resource optimization, schedule compression, and corrective or preventive actions. • Schedule data: The project schedule network diagram may need to be redrawn to reflect the approved remaining duration and approved schedule modifications. Sometimes project schedule delays are so serious that start and finish dates must be re-forecast and new target schedules prepared to provide realistic data for guiding work, measuring performance, and measuring progress. •Risk Register: The use of schedule compression techniques may result in risks that may require updating of the risk register and the risk response plans contained therein.
10.9 Exercises for this Chapter
Comprehensive knowledge question 30 in May 2023 ๏ Regarding the description of activity sequencing, the incorrect one is: ( ). A. In a single-code network diagram, each activity has a unique activity number, and each activity is marked with its duration. B. Activities flowing into the same node in the double-code network diagram all have common subsequent activities. C. In a double-code network diagram, at least one of the preceding and following event codes of any two activities is different. D. The lag is the amount of time that the successor activity needs to be delayed relative to the predecessor activity, and is generally expressed as a negative value. Reference answer D Advanced Tutorial Fourth Edition P309 The advance amount is the amount of time that the immediately following activity can be advanced relative to the immediately preceding activity. The advance amount is generally expressed as a negative value. The lag amount is the amount of time that the immediately following activity needs to be postponed relative to the immediately preceding activity. The lag amount is generally expressed as a positive value.
May 2023 Comprehensive Knowledge Question 31 ๏ The network diagram of a certain project is as follows. The free floating time of activity C is ( ) days. A. 0 B.1 C.2 D.3 Reference answer B According to the derivation formula mentioned in the video course: Push forward from front to back, take the largest value at the convergence node, and get the earliest start time of F as 7. So the free float time of activity C is 7-6=1.
May 2023 Comprehensive Knowledge Question 32 ๏ Among data analysis techniques for controlling the schedule process, ( ) can determine whether performance is improving or deteriorating by examining changes in project performance over time. A. Reserve Analysis B. Monte Carlo Analysis C. Trend analysis D. What-if scenario analysis Reference answer C Advanced Tutorial Fourth Edition P328 Trend analysis: Examine project performance over time to determine whether performance is improving or deteriorating.
1. Multiple choice questions
(1) Provide a detailed plan that explains how and when the project will deliver the products, services, and results defined in the project scope. It is a tool for communicating and managing stakeholder expectations, and provides a basis for performance reporting. A. Project schedule B. Schedule management plan C. Project charter D. Project management plan Reference answer: A
(2) Regarding the understanding of the progress management plan, the incorrect understanding is . A. The schedule management plan is an integral part of the project management plan B. The progress management plan can be very detailed or highly summarized, but it must be formal C. The schedule management plan establishes criteria and defines activities for preparing, monitoring, and controlling the project schedule. D. The schedule management plan will specify the schedule planning methodology and tools used to develop the project schedule model. Reference answer: B
(3) In the early strategic planning stage, the information is not clear enough and the work packages can only be broken down to a known level of detail. Later, as more information is learned, the work packages to be implemented in the near future can be broken down into specific details. Activity, the method is . A. Expert judgment B. Decomposition C. Rolling planning D. Benchmarking method Reference answer: C
(4) Regarding the understanding of activity attributes, the incorrect one is . A. Activity attributes refer to the multiple attributes of each activity, which are used to expand the description of the activity. B. Activity properties do not evolve over time C. Activity attributes can be used to identify the location where work is performed, prepare a project calendar for performing activities, and related activity types D. In the initial stage of the project, activity attributes include unique activity identification, WBS identification and activity name Reference answer: B
(5) Only after verifying that the requester's identity is legitimate, the server starts transmitting data to the client. This is the relationship. A.FS B.FF C.SS D.SF Reference answer: A
(6) Activity B can start 5 days before activity A is completed, then the relationship is expressed as . A.SS 5 B.SS-5 C.FS 5 D.FS-5 Reference answer: D
(7) In the monitoring system project, Party A requires the use of cameras with a protection level of IP67, which falls under the category. A. Mandatory dependency B. Optional dependency C.External dependencies D.Internal dependencies Reference answer: A
(8) Compared with other estimation techniques, it is usually lower cost and less time-consuming, but also less accurate. A. Analog estimation B. Parameter estimation C. Three-point estimation D. Bottom-up estimation Reference answer: A
(9) The most likely time for a certain activity is 8 days, the most optimistic time is 7 days, and the most pessimistic time is 12 days. Then the expected duration of the activity is . A.7 days B.8 days C.9 days D.10 days Reference answer: C
(10) Fast follow-up is a progress compression technology and is a fast follow-up technology. A.Work overtime B. Add project team members C. Accelerate activities on the critical path D. Changing activities or phases that normally occur sequentially to at least partially parallel activities Reference answer: D
2 case questions
Figure 10-25 shows the progress network diagram of an information system project.
Table 10-2 shows the time and cost of normal work and rush work for various activities of the project. Table 10-2 Comparison between normal and urgent project conditions
【Question 1】 Please give the project critical path.
Critical path: ABCDGJMN (find each path separately, calculate the total construction period of each path, the longest total construction period is the critical path).
【Question 2】 Please calculate the total project duration.
Total construction period: 44.
【Question 3】 (1) Please calculate the shortened time of each activity on the critical path, the increased cost for each day shortened and the total increased cost, and fill in the name of each activity on the critical path and the corresponding calculation results in the corresponding table on the answer sheet.
(1) The cost increase of the construction period compression plan is detailed in Table 10-3.
(2) The project duration is required to be shortened to 38 days. Please provide a specific schedule compression plan and calculate the minimum additional cost.
(2) The critical path is ABCDGJMN and the length is 44 days. Other paths longer than 38 days include: ABCDGJLN=43 ABCEJMN=42 ABCEJLN=41 To meet the requirements, 6 days must be shortened, so some common activities in the above four paths need to be reduced. The common activities of the four paths are A, B, C, J, and N. Start by shortening 1 day and increasing the activity with the lowest cost. First, J can shorten 2 days, increase the cost by 200 yuan, and need to shorten 4 days. Then N activity can be shortened by 3 days, increase the cost by 360 yuan, and need to shorten 1 day. At this time, the paths ABCEJLN, ABCEJMN, and ABCDGJLN are all less than or equal to 38, so at this time, you only need to ensure that the critical path ABCDGJMN is compressed for another 1 day. Since the cost of shortening G and M by 1 day is both 150 yuan, you can arbitrarily compress 1 day in these two activities, increasing the cost by 150 Yuan. Therefore, the total added cost is: 200 360 150 = 710 yuan.