MindMap Gallery Money Psychology
This book is a financial management classic that explores the eternal truth about wealth, human nature, and happiness. The author, Morgan Hauser, analyzes the influence of money and human behavior from the perspectives of psychology, economics, and history. The book provides a variety of practical financial management suggestions and cases to help readers find the eternal truth about wealth.
Edited at 2024-10-17 19:57:22Rumi: 10 dimensiones del despertar espiritual. Cuando dejes de buscarte, encontrarás todo el universo porque lo que estás buscando también te está buscando. Cualquier cosa que haga perseverar todos los días puede abrir una puerta a las profundidades de su espíritu. En silencio, me metí en el reino secreto, y disfruté todo para observar la magia que me rodea y no hice ningún ruido. ¿Por qué te gusta gatear cuando naces con alas? El alma tiene sus propios oídos y puede escuchar cosas que la mente no puede entender. Busque hacia adentro para la respuesta a todo, todo en el universo está en ti. Los amantes no terminan reuniéndose en algún lugar, y no hay separación en este mundo. Una herida es donde la luz entra en tu corazón.
¡La insuficiencia cardíaca crónica no es solo un problema de la velocidad de la frecuencia cardíaca! Es causado por la disminución de la contracción miocárdica y la función diastólica, lo que conduce al gasto cardíaco insuficiente, lo que a su vez causa congestión en la circulación pulmonar y la congestión en la circulación sistémica. Desde causas, inducción a mecanismos de compensación, los procesos fisiopatológicos de insuficiencia cardíaca son complejos y diversos. Al controlar el edema, reducir el frente y la poscarga del corazón, mejorar la función de comodidad cardíaca y prevenir y tratar causas básicas, podemos responder efectivamente a este desafío. Solo al comprender los mecanismos y las manifestaciones clínicas de la insuficiencia cardíaca y el dominio de las estrategias de prevención y tratamiento podemos proteger mejor la salud del corazón.
La lesión por isquemia-reperfusión es un fenómeno que la función celular y los trastornos metabólicos y el daño estructural empeorarán después de que los órganos o tejidos restauren el suministro de sangre. Sus principales mecanismos incluyen una mayor generación de radicales libres, sobrecarga de calcio y el papel de los leucocitos microvasculares y. El corazón y el cerebro son órganos dañados comunes, manifestados como cambios en el metabolismo del miocardio y los cambios ultraestructurales, disminución de la función cardíaca, etc. Las medidas de prevención y control incluyen eliminar los radicales libres, reducir la sobrecarga de calcio, mejorar el metabolismo y controlar las condiciones de reperfusión, como baja sodio, baja temperatura, baja presión, etc. Comprender estos mecanismos puede ayudar a desarrollar opciones de tratamiento efectivas y aliviar las lesiones isquémicas.
Rumi: 10 dimensiones del despertar espiritual. Cuando dejes de buscarte, encontrarás todo el universo porque lo que estás buscando también te está buscando. Cualquier cosa que haga perseverar todos los días puede abrir una puerta a las profundidades de su espíritu. En silencio, me metí en el reino secreto, y disfruté todo para observar la magia que me rodea y no hice ningún ruido. ¿Por qué te gusta gatear cuando naces con alas? El alma tiene sus propios oídos y puede escuchar cosas que la mente no puede entender. Busque hacia adentro para la respuesta a todo, todo en el universo está en ti. Los amantes no terminan reuniéndose en algún lugar, y no hay separación en este mundo. Una herida es donde la luz entra en tu corazón.
¡La insuficiencia cardíaca crónica no es solo un problema de la velocidad de la frecuencia cardíaca! Es causado por la disminución de la contracción miocárdica y la función diastólica, lo que conduce al gasto cardíaco insuficiente, lo que a su vez causa congestión en la circulación pulmonar y la congestión en la circulación sistémica. Desde causas, inducción a mecanismos de compensación, los procesos fisiopatológicos de insuficiencia cardíaca son complejos y diversos. Al controlar el edema, reducir el frente y la poscarga del corazón, mejorar la función de comodidad cardíaca y prevenir y tratar causas básicas, podemos responder efectivamente a este desafío. Solo al comprender los mecanismos y las manifestaciones clínicas de la insuficiencia cardíaca y el dominio de las estrategias de prevención y tratamiento podemos proteger mejor la salud del corazón.
La lesión por isquemia-reperfusión es un fenómeno que la función celular y los trastornos metabólicos y el daño estructural empeorarán después de que los órganos o tejidos restauren el suministro de sangre. Sus principales mecanismos incluyen una mayor generación de radicales libres, sobrecarga de calcio y el papel de los leucocitos microvasculares y. El corazón y el cerebro son órganos dañados comunes, manifestados como cambios en el metabolismo del miocardio y los cambios ultraestructurales, disminución de la función cardíaca, etc. Las medidas de prevención y control incluyen eliminar los radicales libres, reducir la sobrecarga de calcio, mejorar el metabolismo y controlar las condiciones de reperfusión, como baja sodio, baja temperatura, baja presión, etc. Comprender estos mecanismos puede ayudar a desarrollar opciones de tratamiento efectivas y aliviar las lesiones isquémicas.
Money Psychology
No one really loses their mind about money
Money and subjective judgment
picture
Your personal experience with money may be only 0.00000001% realistic, but it makes up 80% of your subjective judgment about how the world works.
Everyone experiences money differently
A person who grew up in poverty views risk and reward in a way that a person from a wealthy banking family would struggle to understand.
Those who grew up in a period of inflation experienced things that those who grew up in a period of stable prices never had to experience.
The experiences of those stockbrokers who lost their fortunes during the Great Depression were unimaginable to the skilled workers who were basking in the glory of America's economic development in the late 1990s.
Australians, who have not experienced a recession in 30 years, are feeling something Americans have never experienced.
between people who you feel have similar experiences
Someone who grew up in poverty has a perspective on risk and reward that someone who comes from a wealthy banking family has a hard time understanding.
No one can expect them to agree on what is important, what is valuable, how to proceed, etc.
No one can expect them to react the same way to the same financial information
An idea that is considered intolerable to one group of people is perfectly reasonable to another group of people.
It’s not that we are irrational about money, it’s just that we have little experience.
three experiences
Index funds: It's less than 50 years old.
Hedge funds: They only emerged in the last 25 years.
Consumer debt: only emerged after World War II
Today we only have 20 to 50 years of historical experience in dealing with the modern financial system, but we hope to adapt to it perfectly. This is why we often fail to make financial decisions in the theoretically correct way.
No one is truly losing their mind—we are all making choices based on our own unique experiences, which are reasonable at a given point in time and situation.
luck and risk
Nothing is as good or bad as it seems
luck
No one would argue that luck does not play a role in financial success, but because luck is difficult to quantify, most of the time we automatically ignore the important role luck plays in success.
risk
Luck and risk both reflect that every outcome in real life is affected by factors other than individual efforts. The essence of the two is similar, so you cannot just believe in one and ignore the other.
Bad results must be caused by bad decisions
success/failure
What investment strategies work? What doesn't work?
What business strategies work? What doesn't work?
Experience/Lessons
How to get rich?
How to avoid falling into poverty?
The brain likes simple answers and is not interested in complex variables.
Two suggestions for distinguishing between factors such as luck, skill and risk that lead to different outcomes.
If you want to admire and praise someone, or belittle someone, think twice.
Do not attribute 100% of the results of something to personal efforts and decisions.
Not all success comes from hard work
Not all poverty is due to idleness
Don’t focus too much on specific case studies, but see general patterns.
The causes of extreme cases are very complex and often difficult to apply to other non-extreme cases.
Look for universal patterns of success and failure, and you're more likely to gain valuable experience.
The secret to preventing failure is: do your financial planning
Never satisfied
Cases of people who don’t know how to be satisfied
Gu Lejie
Born in India, orphaned at age 10
In 2008, his net worth reached US$100 million.
In order to obtain more wealth, Gu Lejie was sentenced to jail for insider trading.
His career and reputation were completely ruined.
madoff
The most notorious "Ponzi scheme" creator.
Madoff deceived investors for 20 years before his scam was exposed.
Gu Lejie and Madoff already had wealth, fame, power and freedom that ordinary people could not imagine, but they abandoned it all because they wanted more. They don't know how to be satisfied.
Four Tips for Pursuing Wealth
The hardest financial skill is to stop chasing profit.
Things get dangerous when the desire to have more grows faster than satisfaction.
Modern capital is good at creating two things: wealth and envy.
If you don’t know how to be satisfied, there will be no happiness in life
Happiness is what you have minus what you expect
The crux of the problem lies in the comparison mentality
The crux of the problem lies in the comparison mentality
Comparison is like a battle that no one can win
The only way to win is not to join the war at all.
Accept everything with contentment, even if it means you are inferior to those around you.
This is also the nature of the game of always wanting to be as rich as everyone else.
You have gained enough with a contented mentality
Contentment means knowing that its opposite—an unfulfilled desire—will push you toward regret.
If you are unable to resist the potential temptation of money, then desire may eventually consume you.
There are many things in the world that are simply not worth the risk, no matter how great the potential gain.
Reputation is priceless.
Freedom and independence are priceless.
Family and friends are priceless.
The adoration you hope to receive from someone is priceless.
Happiness is priceless.
The best way to keep these is to know when to stop taking risks before you harm them.
The mystery of compound interest
glacier theory
If something is repeated and accumulated—even if only a small increase provides the impetus for continued growth in the future—the starting point may be low, but it may eventually produce unimaginable and seemingly counterintuitive results.
Theories about the formation of glaciers
Glaciologist Gwen Schultz: The key to the formation of Earth's glaciers is not necessarily a large amount of snowfall, but the accumulation of snow, no matter how much.
The same goes for financial management
Warren Buffett's success in the investment field is inseparable from the good wealth foundation he laid when he was young and his long-term persistence in investment.
The formation process of the Ice Age teaches us that huge results do not necessarily require huge power. If something is repeated and accumulated—even if only a small increase provides the impetus for continued growth in the future—the starting point may be low, but it may eventually produce unimaginable and seemingly counterintuitive results.
The effect of compound interest
Warren Buffett
Financial net worth of US$84.5 billion and US$81.5 billion earned after age 65, the annual compound interest rate is approximately 22%
Jim Simmons
Net financial assets of 21 billion US dollars. I found my own investment path at the age of 50. The annual compound interest rate is about 66%.
If Simons is better at investing, why is the gap so big?
Jim Simmons’ net worth has grown at a compound rate of 66% per year since 1988. No one has come close to this record.
Buffett's annual compound interest rate is about 22%, only one-third of Simons's. But Simmons' financial net worth is only 25% of Buffett's financial net worth.
reason
The secret is time
Simons didn’t find his investment path until he was 50
He invests in less than half the time that Buffett does
If he invests for 70 years like Buffett, the annual compound interest rate will be 66%
His wealth will be $63,900,781,780,748,160,000.
The effect of compound interest
A good investment does not necessarily mean the highest long-term return, because investments with high returns are often one-time and difficult to repeat.
A good investment is one that consistently earns good returns that can be repeated over the long term - this is where compound interest starts to come into play.
This is an unimaginable astronomical number. The key is that these huge results are caused by small changes in the assumptions about growth.
Get rich vs. stay rich
Getting rich and staying rich are two completely different skills
Successful investing does not require you to make successful decisions all the time. All you have to do is never mess things up.
Getting rich vs staying rich
Getting rich requires a sense of adventure, optimism, and the courage to take a chance.
Keeping wealth requires humility and awe, and you need to understand that wealth can go away just as quickly as it comes. Preserving wealth requires frugality, acknowledging that part of the wealth acquired comes from luck, and not expecting to infinitely replicate past successes.
There are millions of ways to get rich, and there are countless books on the market that tell you how to get rich. But there is only one way to preserve wealth: while remaining frugal, you also need to be cautious.
Summarize financial success in one word: Survival
The concept of "survival"
Not growth, wisdom, vision
The most important thing is to survive for a long time and not be eliminated or forced to give up.
Survival should be the basis of all your strategies
picture
Two reasons why survival is so important to wealth
No gain is worth the risk of losing everything.
The power of compound interest will only emerge if you give your wealth time to grow year after year.
Something Buffett has never done in investing
Not burdening myself with debt or relying on other people’s funds
Through 14 recessions, he never panicked and sold off his financial assets.
I have never done anything to damage my business reputation.
Don’t rely on a single strategy, worldview, or outdated fad.
There’s no fighting until you’re exhausted and then giving up or retiring.
Three principles for applying a survival mentality to the real world
The security of wealth is more important than huge returns.
As long as your wealth is safe, you know you'll always get the maximum return because compound interest works wonders if you stick with it long enough.
Planning is important
The most important part of every plan is to plan for the unexpected.
Only plans that can withstand the test of reality are meaningful.
Stay optimistic and avoid inflated mentality every week
A balanced mindset of staying optimistic about the future while always being on guard against the things that are holding you back from a better future is crucial.
The victory of the tail
tail event
A small number of low-incidence, high-impact events
The impact of tail events
Anything that is large, profitable, famous, or influential begins with some tail event—one event that stands out from thousands or even millions of others.
Most of our attention is focused on these things, the consequences of tail events.
And when our focus is only on the results of tail events, we can easily underestimate the scarcity and power of tail events themselves.
The tail is the key to driving everything
Berkshire Hathaway's 2013 Shareholders Meeting
Warren Buffett: I have held 400 to 500 stocks in my life, and most of my profits came from 10 of them.
Charlie Munger: If you take away a few top investments, the company's long-term performance is actually quite average.
The vast majority of investment advice is about the "now." What should you do at this moment? Most of the time, the “now” doesn’t really matter that much.
As an investor, the decisions you make today, tomorrow, or next week are far less important than the decisions you make on individual days of your life.
These days may only occupy 1% or even less of your life, and during these times, people around you may be in an irrational state.
An investment genius should also be a person who can continue to act normally when everyone around him enters an irrational state. You can make mistakes half the time and still win in the end.
free
Happiness is total control over life
People want to become richer and hope that wealth will bring more happiness.
Happiness is a complex topic because everyone's perspective on happiness is different, but if the happiness score has a common denominator—a universal source of joy—it's total control over your life.
Angus Campbell (psychologist at the University of Michigan)
Having a strong sense of control over your life is a more reliable predictor of positive feelings like happiness than any objective life condition we have ever considered.
Common variables in life that determine happiness
It’s not the salary, the size of the house, or the quality of the job, but the ability to control what you want to do, when you want to do it, and who you want to do it with.
Give you the ability to control your own time
The greatest intrinsic value of money is the ability it gives you to control your time.
independence and autonomy
The wealth you accumulate gives you greater control over what you can do and when you do it.
Time freedom is the greatest dividend that wealth can bring you
have a small fortune
This means that even if you take a few days off when you are sick, you won’t be able to make ends meet.
have more wealth
This means that you can wait calmly for better career opportunities after losing your job, without having to rush to grab the first life-saving straw that comes your way.
Have 6 months of emergency savings
It means you won’t be walking on eggshells when it comes to your boss, because you know your life won’t be in trouble even if it takes time to find another way out.
The benefits of wealth in life
You can freely choose your retirement time without having to struggle to make a living even when you are old. Wealth gives you more time and options.
We need to be clear about what makes everyone happy and what doesn’t
No one—no one—suggests that if you want to be happy, you should work hard, make money, and buy the things you want.
No one—no one—suggests that you have to be at least as rich as, or richer than, the people around you to be truly successful.
No one - not 1 - is saying that you should choose your job based on the level of income you expect to earn.
Summary from 1,000 American seniors in the book "30 Lessons About Life"
luxury car paradox
When you see someone driving a nice car you rarely think, "Wow, that guy is really cool driving the car." Instead, you just think, "Wow, if that car were mine, other people would think I'm cool. ".
Here's a paradox: We all want to use our wealth to tell others that we should be loved and admired by them. But in fact, others often skip the step of admiring you.
This is not because they think your wealth is not worthy of envy, but because they will use your wealth as a yardstick to express their desire to be loved and admired.
In fact, others don’t care as much about how much property you have as you do
About wealth
You may think you need an expensive car, a fancy watch, and a big house.
But you don't really want the things themselves. What you really want is respect and admiration from others.
You think having expensive things will make others respect and envy you, but alas, others won't.
wealth or luxury cars
The point is not to give up on your dreams of wealth or luxury cars.
The respect and admiration you gain from spending money on expensive things may be far less than you think.
Personality traits such as humility, kindness and compassion can help you gain more respect than luxury cars.
Wealth is what you can't see
Wealth is not an external part that we can see
Wealth is reflected in the luxury cars, diamonds, watches, clothes you didn't buy, and the first-class seats you didn't upgrade to.
Wealth is embodied in financial assets that have not been converted into physical objects.
The only way to truly become rich is to stop spending the wealth you have.
What you need to do is spend the money you already have, rather than overdrafting money that doesn’t yet belong to you.
The difference between "rich" and "money"
rich
"Having money" is related to your current income level.
For a long time, we have formed a concept of consumption that money is for spending.
However, the premise of wealth is actually restraint.
rich
Income that is not spent becomes wealth.
Wealth exists before you make a purchase decision.
Only real wealth that has not been squandered can give us such a life.
save money
People with a certain income are generally divided into three categories:
People who can save money
People who think they can’t save money
People who think they don’t need to save money
Very simple but easily overlooked rules for saving money
Rule 1: Wealth accumulation has a lot to do with your savings rate
Investment may indeed make you rich, but there is always an unknown as to how long the returns will last, and all results are shrouded in uncertainty.
Personal frugality and saving practices are the part of the money equation that you have more control over, and are 100% effective.
Wealth is the accumulation of what is left over from income after expenses have been deducted. Even if your income is not high, you can still accumulate wealth, but if your savings rate is not high, you will never be able to accumulate wealth.
If you view building wealth as a process controlled by your own frugality and efficiency, your wealth prospects will become clearer.
Rule 2: The value of wealth is related to personal needs
My annual return is 8%
I am more efficient at spending money. You only need to spend half of your expenses to feel happy, and your requirements for life continue to increase as your wealth increases rapidly.
Even though I'm not as good at investing as you are, I'm living a better life than you are. Even though my return on investment was lower than yours, I got a greater benefit from my investment.
Your annual return is 12%
If you learn to get the same amount of happiness with less money, a positive gap will develop between what you want and what you get.
A high savings rate means your spending will be lower than usual, while a low spending rate means you'll be able to save more than you would if your spending were high.
Rule 3: After your income exceeds a certain level, your material needs are determined by your desires.
Material needs → comfort
Everyone has basic material needs, and when these needs are met, people will move up to a higher level and pursue the comfort of life.
Comfort → more pursuit
When comfort is also satisfied, people will pursue things that are comfortable, entertaining and inspiring.
If you want to increase your wealth, you must be humble
Those who successfully manage their personal wealth over the long term do not necessarily have high incomes.
One thing they have in common is that they don't care what others think of them.
Rule 4: We have more control over our savings rate than we think
Spend less and your savings rate will naturally increase
As desires decrease, expenses will naturally decrease
Stop caring about what others think of you
Your desires will naturally decrease
Rule 5: You don’t need a special reason to save money
You can definitely save money for the sake of saving money. In fact, you should do it, everyone should do it.
Rule 6: Flexible control of time is your intangible wealth
If you have enough time, you can wait for a better opportunity to come. This is an intangible return that savings brings.
Rule 7: Intangible rewards gradually become more important
Greater control over time and choice has become one of the most valuable currencies in the world today.
Reasonableness is better than absolute rationality
Choose what is reasonable, not what is absolutely rational
reasonable
Making reasonable decisions in most situations is better than pursuing absolute rationality.
recognize the reality
You are not a spreadsheet, you are a person, a person with all kinds of emotions and desires, and often a confused mind.
investment decision
When making investment decisions, don't try to be absolutely rational, but make choices that make sense to you, that is, which are more acceptable to you.
Best solution?
In the real world, this mathematically optimal solution may not necessarily be popular.
Two important points about portfolio diversification
Point 1: Minimize future regrets
There are social factors in investment behavior, but if investment is viewed from an absolutely rational financial perspective, these factors are often ignored.
Second point: This phenomenon is normal and there is nothing wrong with it.
People are neither absolutely rational nor irrational.
In the financial field, what people often overlook is that some solutions are completely correct in theory, but in practice they are contrary to human nature.
Accident!
The most important driving force behind anything related to money
things change over time
The cornerstone of economic theory is the principle that "things change over time" because the invisible hand of the market does not want to see things that are too good or too bad continue.
driving force
The most important driving force behind anything related to money is people's rationalizations for various phenomena and preferences for goods and services.
Society will not remain static
As social culture changes and generations grow up, this change is happening all the time and will continue.
Experience is not prediction
We always have an excessive admiration for those who have achieved financial success, but experiencing certain specific events does not mean that you have the ability to predict the future.
Relying on historical experience in the investment field will face two dangers
You may miss unexpected events that have a big impact
The most important events in history are often major, unprecedented and unexpected events. These events had a fundamental impact on the economy and stock markets. The Great Depression, World War II, the Internet bubble, the "9·11" incident, etc. These unexpected events played an important role in the development of history because they subsequently had an impact on many unrelated events.
History can be misleading about the future of economies and stock markets because it fails to take into account the very important structural changes in the world today.
The interesting thing about investment history is that the further back in time you go, the less applicable the patterns you see apply to today's world. Studying the history of money can be helpful in developing this understanding. How you specifically manage your wealth is in a continuous evolutionary process.
fault tolerance
margin of safety
benjamin graham
A famous concept proposed by Benjamin Graham. The purpose of a margin of safety is to make forecasting unnecessary.
Room for fault tolerance or redundancy
In a world governed by probabilities rather than certainties, a margin of safety—you might also call it “fault tolerance” or “redundancy room”—is the only way to be safe.
Tolerance allows you to tolerate a range of possible outcomes: with this tolerance, you can wait long enough to increase the probability that low-probability rewards will occur.
Don't take unnecessary risks
One has to take some risks to get ahead, but risks that can bankrupt you are not worth taking.
Investors need to consider two situations of fault tolerance:
about volatility
If your financial assets were reduced by 30%, could you survive it? Judging from the data alone, you may not be in dire straits - as long as you can still afford your daily expenses and maintain a positive cash flow.
But can you guarantee that your mentality will be stable by then? Data tables can accurately tell you the increase or decrease in assets, but they cannot reflect the kind of emotions you are struggling with. The gap between theoretical tolerance and emotional tolerance is a margin for error that is often overlooked.
About retirement savings
Since the 1870s, U.S. stocks have returned an average of 6.8% annually, adjusted for inflation. When planning your retirement savings, you'll feel like you have similar returns with a diversified portfolio.
But what if future returns are lower? The impact of this series of "what ifs" is that you won't be able to retire on time as you planned. When estimating your future earnings, allow room for error.
People will change
There is a basic law of human psychology: it is difficult for us to predict our future thoughts
Sticking to long-term plans is harder than you think because our goals and ideas are always changing.
This phenomenon has a huge impact on our ability to determine future financial goals.
Long-term financial planning is important, but things are always changing.
The world around us changes, and so do our personal goals and pursuits.
It's difficult to make long-term decisions and stick to them if your thoughts are likely to change in the future.
end of history delusion
Definition of the End of History Delusion
It means that people are keenly aware of the changes that have occurred in themselves compared to the past, but it is easy to underestimate the changes that will occur in their personality, ideas and goals in the future.
Two principles for making long-term decisions
We should avoid extreme financial planning goals
Slowly accept the fact that your thoughts are changing all the time
There is no free lunch in the world
Everything in the world has a price
As with many things related to money, the key is to understand what they require from you, and then determine whether you are willing to pay for it.
The price of many things is not clearly stated on the surface. You will only know how much it is after experiencing it for yourself, but by then, it is too late.
Because we are overconfident, and more often than not because we are not good at determining what the price of success is, we end up discovering that we cannot afford it.
Everything has a price, it’s just not written on the label
The higher the return, the greater the cost
The price of investing successfully is not immediately visible. It will not be written intuitively on the label.
Viewing market fluctuations as a price to be paid rather than a penalty to be paid is an important part of developing the right financial mindset.
This mentality allows you to stick to a financial strategy long enough to ultimately reap long-term investment returns.
What you spend is usually matched by what you get in return. Market returns are never free, not now and never in the future.
Everyone's situation is different
Don’t rush to learn financial management lessons from those who are in a different situation than you are.
Ask yourself: How much should you pay for Google stock today?
The answer to this question depends on who "you" are.
Do you want to do long-term financial planning in the next 30 years? If so, then you need to do a dispassionate analysis of the discounted value of Google's cash flows over the next 30 years before you can come up with what you think is a reasonable price to pay.
Planning to cash out in 10 years? If so, you need to analyze the technology industry's potential to grow over the next 10 years and whether Google management can realize their vision before you can come up with what you think is a reasonable price to pay.
Do you plan to sell stocks within 1 year? Then you need to pay attention to Google's current product sales cycle and whether there will be a bear market. Or, are you a day trader?
Greed is a weakness in human nature that is difficult to eliminate
weakness
In the first few years of the 21st century, the bursting of the dot-com bubble reduced U.S. household wealth by $6.2 trillion.
After the real estate bubble burst, more than $8 trillion in American household wealth evaporated.
The destructiveness of bubbles in the financial sector to society can never be overestimated. It has ruined too many people's lives.
Why does it happen?
Why does it keep happening?
Why can’t we learn from this?
A common answer is: human greed. Greed is a weakness in human nature that is difficult to eliminate.
No one really loses their mind about money. People often make financial decisions without sufficient information and logic, only to regret them later.
One of the reasons it’s so hard to learn from bubbles is that, unlike cancer, there’s no way to get a definitive diagnosis and warning from a biopsy.
Competition for investment returns is fierce, and at some point in time, someone will want to pocket someone else's wealth.
No one wants their financial assets to be overvalued. And when the dust settles, we're more likely to cynicize rather than learn from the results.
Try your best to know exactly what game you are playing
After being influenced by people whose investment philosophy is different from yours, you will give up your original consumption philosophy.
You are influenced by the people you admire.
When it comes to managing money, few things are more important than having your own investment goals clear and unaffected by the activities and actions of others. Try as hard as possible to know exactly what game you are playing.
The temptation of pessimism
Optimism and Pessimism
optimism
A true optimist is not one who believes that everything will turn out great.
Optimism is the belief that even if the process is full of ups and downs, as time goes by, the probability of a good outcome in your mind will be greater than the probability of a bad outcome.
Optimism is based on a simple truth: most people's first thought when they wake up in the morning is to do things better and more efficiently, not to destroy them.
pessimism
Not only is pessimism more common than optimism, it also sounds more sensible.
Pessimism has a cognitive appeal that attracts more attention than optimism, which is often seen as ignoring risk.
What makes pessimism so attractive when it comes to money is that humans' excessive aversion to loss is an evolutionary protective mechanism.
Three reasons why pessimism is more likely, more common and more persuasive
Money is everywhere in life, so negative events in the financial field tend to affect everyone and attract everyone's attention.
Looking for reasons for the economic downturn makes it easier for people to discuss and worry about it. It also makes it easier for people to look to the future and weave pessimistic stories-the contents of these stories are often similar.
People will always try their best to explain the reasons:
Is it because investors are not optimistic about economic growth?
Is it because the Fed screwed up again?
Is it because politicians made wrong decisions again?
Are there worse problems to come?
Pessimists often fail to take into account how the market will adapt to the situation when speculating about future trends.
It’s easy to predict that bad conditions will continue, and such predictions are persuasive because they don’t require us to imagine how the world will change.
There is an iron law in economics: both excellent and extremely bad environments are difficult to maintain in the long term because market supply and demand will adapt to the environment in ways that are difficult to predict.
Progress occurs too slowly to be noticed, but setbacks occur too quickly to be ignored.
A person's reputation takes a lifetime to build, but a small email can destroy it. In the arena of public opinion, the short-lived pain of pessimism prevails, while the powerful pull of optimism goes unnoticed.
Growth is driven by compound interest, which usually takes time. Destruction can be caused by independent fatal factors, which can occur in a short period of time; it can also be caused by a loss of confidence, which can collapse in an instant.
when you believe everything
Two principles when managing assets
The more you want something to be true, the easier it is for you to believe a story that overestimates the likelihood of it coming true.
Many things in life seem true to us because we desperately want them to come true.
I call these things "attractive stories."
Captivating stories emerge when you're smart and want to find a solution to a problem, but you're in a situation where your control is limited and the stakes are high.
In moments like these, stories are so powerful that they can make you believe anything.
Many investment ideas in the financial field have this characteristic: once you follow them and choose a certain strategy or method, you will make a dual investment both financially and psychologically.
If you want a stock to rise tenfold, you become a believer.
If you think a certain economic policy will trigger hyperinflation, you're already in line.
The probability of these predictions coming true is probably low.
Many people cling to the unwavering belief that what they want will come true, but they do so simply because there is the possibility of a huge reward.
One side is what you hope to achieve, and the other side is what you actually need to achieve to achieve an acceptable result. The greater the difference between the two, the less likely you are to believe attractive investment stories.
Everyone’s view of the world is incomplete, but everyone weaves a complete story to fill in the gaps.
We cannot think in our own cognitive blind spots, so it is easy for us to use the limited knowledge system we have to explain the world.
We make a lot of mistakes along the way because we know much less about how the world works than we think.
This holds true in most fact-based fields.
Neil Kahneman said: Hindsight, the ability of people to interpret past events, gives us the illusion that the world can be understood and that it has its own principles. , even when it’s actually a mess. This is an important reason why we make mistakes in many areas.
Most people don't realize that they don't understand something they don't understand when faced with it.
The impact these stories have on our financial lives can be fascinating or devastating.
Admitting ignorance means admitting that much of what happens in the world is beyond your control, and that's hard to accept.
We all want to understand how the complex world we live in works, so we tell ourselves stories to fill in the gaps that are essentially blind spots.
When you make decisions for reasons I can't understand, I may blindly follow you into decisions that may be right for you but may be disastrous for me.
People actually understand this truth. But the need for predictions remains strong. Why?
The person who confidently thinks he is right based on everything he sees, but is dead wrong because he has no idea what other people are thinking.
Summarize
A Few Simple Tips: They Can Help You Make Better Financial Decisions
humble
When things are moving in the right direction, stay humble.
Luck and risk coexist
Luck and risk are real and difficult to judge, so keep these words in mind when evaluating yourself or others.
understanding or sympathy
Be understanding or compassionate when things go in the wrong direction.
Less vanity, more wealth
How much money you can save depends on the gap between your need to express yourself and your income, and wealth exists precisely in places you can't see.
The world is big and complicated
Nothing is as good or bad as it seems.
Manage money in a way that makes you sleep soundly
This is not the same as striving for the highest return on investment or putting a certain percentage of your income in the bank.
control of time
Use wealth to gain control over time, because the most serious and common deduction for happiness in life is the lack of freedom of time.
prolong time
If you want to increase your return on investment, the simplest and most effective way is to increase the time. Time is the most powerful force in investing.
More kindness, less luxury
No one else cares as much about how rich you are as you do yourself.
Don’t be mentally unbalanced
You can get half of it wrong and still build wealth, because it's a few things that determine the overall outcome.
save money
Just save it.
You don’t need a specific reason to save money.
financial goals
Avoid setting extreme financial goals. Everyone's goals and desires change over time.
cost
Identify the price of success. Then be prepared to pay, because nothing of value is free.
Clarify the nature of the game
Be clear about the nature of the game you are playing. Make sure your actions are not affected by players from different games.
Pay attention to fault tolerance
There is a distance between what might happen in the future and what you need to meet in order to perform well.
respect everyone
In the world of financial investment, smart, knowledgeable, and thoughtful people can disagree. What suits you is the best.
How I use money psychology myself
You have to find what works for you. Here's what works for me.
How does my family view savings?
Being independent has also always been a personal financial goal of mine. I just want to know when I wake up every morning that as a family we can do whatever we want on our own terms.
Every financial decision we make is geared toward achieving this goal.
Achieving a degree of autonomy in life doesn't require you to earn a doctor's salary. The main tip is to control your desires and live as frugally as you can.
Autonomy has nothing to do with your income level, but rather your savings rate.
When your income exceeds a certain level, your savings rate is determined by controlling your desires for lifestyle.
Our lifestyle desires do not increase with income.
Our savings rate is quite high, but this frugality is not achieved by suppressing desires, because our desire for material things has not increased much as a result.
We also like nice things and a comfortable life.
We just don’t let our life goals expand without limit.
This mentality does not apply to everyone, it only applies to us, because both of us as a couple recognize this, and neither of us compromises with the other.
Most of the entertainment in our lives — walking, reading, listening to podcasts — doesn’t cost much, so we rarely feel like we’re missing out on anything.
How does my family view investing?
Every investor should choose a strategy that maximizes the possibility of achieving his goals. For most investors, investing in low-cost index funds using the dollar-cost averaging method will be the option with the highest long-term investment success rate.
This does not mean that index investing is always a good choice, nor does it mean that it is suitable for everyone, nor does it mean that the aggressive stock picking route is doomed to failure, although in general this idea has some traction on one side or the other - Particularly among those who are vehemently opposed to active investing – it has become ingrained in their minds.
I came to realize that it was very possible to achieve all of our family's financial goals by investing our money in low-cost index funds for decades and allowing the money to accumulate compound interest. This perspective is largely ingrained in our frugal lifestyles.
No matter how my family saves or invests, I am certain that the pursuit of independence will always be our goal. We will always make choices that allow us to sleep soundly.
We believe that mastering the psychology of money is the ultimate goal in life. But each of us is different, and no one really loses their mind about money.
No matter how my family saves or invests, I am certain that the pursuit of independence will always be our goal. We will always make choices that allow us to sleep soundly.
About this book
Author: Morgan Hauser
A partner of The Collaborative Fund, a well-known financial website "Jester" and a columnist for the Wall Street Journal.
Twice won the "Best Business Writing Award" from the American Society of Business Editors and Writers and the "Sidney Award" from the New York Times, and was twice shortlisted for the "Gerald Loeb Award for Outstanding Business and Financial Journalism" ".