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Facts Reading Notes
Bill Gates' graduation gift to college students across the United States! This book can help you stay away from anxiety, become optimistic, hopeful, rational, discover potential business opportunities, and make effective decisions. The following figure analyzes the important opinions and suggestions based on the "facts", that is, 10 common wrong ways of thinking, and shares them with you.
Edited at 2021-01-13 10:02:40
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- Outline
split into two
1
concept
Divide things into two, two categories that are opposed and contradictory to each other
three conditions
Just compare averages
Only compare the highest level
Only look down but not look up
Case
The country is no longer divided into two, developing and developed countries, but four income levels
Level 1: Earning $1 per day, having an average of 5 children
Level 2: Earn $4 per day
Level 3: Earn $16 per day
Level 4: Earn $32 per day
negative thinking
2
Reflected in three aspects
false memories of the past
Selective reporting of negative news by media and social activists
As long as bad things happen, we don’t think the world is getting better.
32 important advances
16 bad things are on the decline, like legal slavery, oil spills, natural disasters, hunger, and more
16 good things are on the rise, such as environmental protection, science, the Internet, literacy and more
Three ways to combat negative thinking
Accept both good and bad situations
Be prepared for bad news
Don’t over-glorify history
straight line thinking
3
a misunderstanding
Will the population continue to grow linearly? The fact is that the population will reach equilibrium at 11 billion
Thinking on multiple curves
straight line
people’s health, education, age at marriage, recreational activities and income
S-shaped curve
Basic education level, vaccination level and income level
slide curve
Changes in women’s per capita number of births, income levels, and vaccination costs
hump curve
Dental health, traffic accident levels, income levels, and proportion of children who drown
Doubling curve
Travel distance, expenditure, CO2 emissions and income level
fear instinct
4
natural disaster
Death toll from natural disasters drops sharply, high-income countries help low-income countries tide over difficulties
plane crash
In 2016, only 10 of the 40,000 planes crashed, making it one of the safest means of transportation.
wars and conflicts
The world is more peaceful, violent conflict and the number of people killed in violent conflict are at an all-time low
pollute
chemophobia
terrorism
Countries with high income levels have fewer terrorist attacks
The increase in terrorist attacks mainly comes from 5 countries:
Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan and Syria
Fear vs Danger
Focus on the real danger, not the feeling of fear
illusion of scale
5
two important aspects
Pay attention to the part and ignore the whole
Misjudgment of the importance of single events or visible victims
How to Control the Illusion of Scale
Number comparison
80/20 principle
Research proportion
Cover the whole with partial coverage
6
wrong induction
Grouping different categories of people and things into one category, leading to the formation of false stereotypes in our minds
How to control overgeneralizing thinking
Find a better way to classify
Question your classification method
Wangyi most and extreme cases
Don't treat others as fools
destined
7
Correct understanding
Society and culture are not immutable; they are constantly changing.
How to control doomed thinking
embrace change
Update your knowledge at any time
Talk to the elderly
Collect examples of culture change
single perspective
8
two reasons
political ideology
professional limitations
How to control single-perspective thinking
check your thoughts
Pay attention to your limitations
Focus on the numbers, but not just the numbers
blame others
9
real hero
organization
Science & Technology
How to control the thinking of others
Look for the cause, not the bad guy
Look for systems, not heroes
Urgency creates chaos
10
risk
make wrong decisions
Sacrificing trust and belief
How to control anxious thoughts
Take a deep breath
Stay data-based
The Biased Prophet
Be careful of drastic actions
Recognize emotional instincts, make corresponding changes, get rid of irrational troubles, and reinvest energy into constructive behaviors
"Facts" Reading Notes