The first core factor, negative correlation

The Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates, the US dollar index breaks 114, and gold falls from 2075 to 1615

The US dollar weakens, de dollarization heats up, and gold continues to break through historical highs

Pricing core factor, negative correlation

The Federal Reserve raises interest rates to 20%, real interest rates soar, and gold opens a 20-year bear market

Global zero interest rates+high inflation, real interest rates deeply negative, gold hits $2000 for the first time

Bottom supporting factors, positively correlated

Two oil crises, US inflation exceeding 13%, gold skyrocketing 23 times in 10 years

Global inflation, although suppressed by interest rate hikes, gold has never fallen below key support levels

Short term inflation trigger

The COVID-19 is a global pandemic, with gold soaring by 200 dollars a month

Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, and gold rose more than 60 dollars a day

Medium - and long-term trend leaders

The Washington Accord restricts central banks from selling gold, halting the decline in gold prices in the 1990s

Global central banks continuously break gold purchase records, becoming the core support for this round of gold bull market

Periodic influencing factors, negative correlation

Global financial crisis, stock market crash, gold rises against the trend

The global economy is recovering, the US is bullish, and gold is experiencing volatile adjustments

Long term bottom support with minimal fluctuations

mineral gold (Global main supply, major producing countries: China, Australia, Russia, South Africa)

Recycled gold (old gold recycling)

Supply contraction → gold price supported; Supply surplus → Gold price under pressure

Jewelry demand (highest proportion, with a surge in demand during the peak season of Chinese and Indian holidays)

Industrial demand (electronics, aerospace, medical, stable and essential needs)

Investment demand (gold bars, coins, gold ETFs)

The supply of gold fluctuates very little every year (with a global annual output of about 3500 tons), making it difficult for supply and demand to trigger sharp rises and falls, but rather serving as a bottom support.

Short term fluctuation amplifier

The Hunter brothers manipulated silver, and gold speculation soared to $850, and the foam collapsed

Speculative funds flock into the market, driving gold to break through $5200 in a short period of time

Bullish signal (gold price is prone to rise)

The US dollar index is weakening US Treasury yields decline Market expectation for Federal Reserve to cut interest rates

Real interest rates are negative or continuously declining Inflation is higher than interest rates

CPI/PPI continues to rise Large scale monetary easing and water release

Increased expectations of economic recession Stock market crash, risk asset collapse

War/conflict escalation Black swans such as epidemics and financial storms Political turmoil and intensified sanctions

Global central banks continue to increase their holdings of gold Stop selling and restrict the sale of gold

The demand for jewelry during the peak season has increased significantly Mineral gold production reduction and supply tightening

Continuous net inflow of gold ETF Long positions in futures have increased significantly

Watch risk aversion sentiment+USD/interest rate+speculative funds

Looking at real interest rates+central bank purchases+economic recession expectations

Looking at inflation+supply and demand fundamentals

Most of the time, the combination of the US dollar and real interest rates determines the overall direction of gold prices, Other factors only provide assistance or disturbance